Influenza epidemic spread simulation for Poland — a large scale, individual based model study

In this work a construction of an agent based model for studying the effects of influenza epidemic in large scale (38 million individuals) stochastic simulations, together with the resulting various scenarios of disease spread in Poland are reported. Simple transportation rules were employed to mimic individuals’ travels in dynamic route-changing schemes, allowing for the infection spread during a journey. Parameter space was checked for stable behaviour, especially towards the effective infection transmission rate variability. Although the model reported here is based on quite simple assumptions, it allowed to observe two different types of epidemic scenarios: characteristic for urban and rural areas. This differentiates it from the results obtained in the analogous studies for the UK or US, where settlement and daily commuting patterns are both substantially different and more diverse. The resulting epidemic scenarios from these ABM simulations were compared with simple, differential equations based, SIR models — both types of the results displaying strong similarities. The pDYN software platform developed here is currently used in the next stage of the project employed to study various epidemic mitigation strategies.     

基于复杂网络的社会性软件研究

本文阐述了社会性软件的概念及其主要研究情况,结合社会性软件的特点及其与复杂网络的联系,介绍了复杂网络的相关概念和特性,讨论了一个基于复杂网络而构建的学习网络模型.     

Ways in which engaging with someone else’s reasoning is productive

Classrooms which involve students in mathematical discourse are becoming ever more prominent for the simple reason that they have been shown to support student learning and affinity for content. While support for outcomes has been shown, less is known about how or why such strategies benefit students. In this paper, we report on one such finding: namely that when students engage with another’s reasoning, as necessitated by interactive conversation, it supports their own conceptual growth and change. This qualitative analysis of 10 university students provides insight into what engaging with another’s reasoning entails and suggests that higher levels of engagement support higher levels of conceptual growth. We conclude with implications for instructional practice and future research.     

On fuzzy cliques in fuzzy networks

A definition of fuzzy clique in social networks is suggested which overcomes five limitations of current definitions. This definition is based on the networks in which the 0–1 strengths, the weighted strengths, and fuzzy strengths are all allowed. The fuzzy distance in such a network is defined. The node‐clique and clique‐clique coefficients are suggested. The core and the periphery of fuzzy cliques are discussed formally. A “cone like” property of the cores is discovered. The network structures are discussed using the new definition. A “no circle” property of networks is found. Basic fuzzy tools and the related algorithms are also discussed. Some examples are analyzed to demonstrate the theory.     

The value of cognitive foundations for dynamic social theory

It is possible to develop models of social behavior that are predicated on detailed mechanical models of cognition. Cognitively based social models are potentially unified theoretical frameworks that can be used to explain a wide variety of social phenomena. Moreover, if a knowledge representation scheme and a knowledge acquisition scheme are specified in the underlying cognitive model then it is possible to produce a dynamic social model. The resulting social model can thus be used to predict and explain not only conditions for specific behaviors but changes in those behaviors over time.

Constructuralism is a theory of social behavior that rests on a cognitive model. The cognitive model specified has a knowledge representation scheme, knowledge acquisition procedures, and control procedures for shifting cognitive attention. The resulting social model is a dynamic model that can be used to explain both conditions for the occurrence of a behavior and social and individual changes that accrue do to a series of behaviors. The explanatory breadth of the model is illustrated by looking at predictions about a variety of social phenomena including: development of shared knowledge, identical behavior by members of the society, foreign language acquisition, clique formation, civil disobedience, and diffusion of innovative information.     

Order preservation in a generalized version of Krause’s opinion dynamics model

Krause’s model of opinion dynamics has recently been the subject of several studies, partly because it is one of the simplest multi-agent systems involving position-dependent changing topologies. In this model, agents have an opinion represented by a real number and they update it by averaging those agent opinions distant from their opinion by less than a certain interaction radius. Some results obtained on this model rely on the fact that the opinion orders remain unchanged under iteration, a property that is consistent with the intuition in models with simultaneous updating on a fully connected communication topology.Several variations of this model have been proposed. We show that some natural variations are not order preserving and therefore cause potential problems with the theoretical analysis and the consistence with the intuition. We consider a generic version of Krause’s model parameterized by an “influence function” that encapsulates most of the variations proposed in the literature. We then derive a necessary and sufficient condition on this function for the opinion order to be preserved.     

Increasing inequalities in what we do online: A longitudinal cross sectional analysis of Internet activities among the Dutch population (2010 to 2013) over gender,age, education,and income

We investigate types of Internet activities among a representative sample of the Dutch population from 2010 to 2013. We examined usage patterns of seven types of Internet activities (i.e., information, news, personal development, commercial transaction, social interaction, leisure, and gaming) and related these patterns with gender, age, education, and income. Activities related to news, personal development, commercial transaction, and social interaction increased in popularity. For most capital enhancing activities, men, younger people, higher educated people, and people with higher than average incomes were prominent. These observations, however, are subject to change. The Internet seems to provide increasingly more capital-enhancing opportunities for those with higher education and income, which would accordingly reinforce their already strong positions in society.     

Relative deprivation as a cause of risky behaviors

ABSTRACT

Combining a standard measure of concern about low relative wealth and a standard measure of relative risk aversion leads to a novel explanation of variation in risk-taking behavior identified and documented by social psychologists and economists. We obtain two results: (1) Holding individual i’s wealth and his rank in the wealth distribution constant, the individual’s relative risk aversion decreases when he becomes more relatively deprived as a result of an increase in the average wealth of the individuals who are wealthier than he is. (2) If relative deprivation enters the individual’s utility function approximately linearly then, holding constant individual i’s wealth and the average wealth of the individuals who are wealthier than he is, the individual’s relative risk aversion decreases when he becomes more relatively deprived as a result of a decline in his rank. Our findings provide a theoretical support for evidence about the propensity of relatively deprived individuals to gamble and resort to other risky behaviors.     

Latent communities of digital publications: The role of editors,followers, and advertisers

This research explores how digital publications may be turned into something more than just a meeting point for people who are seeking information and may become a latent community. The paper proposes that the network of editors, followers, and advertisers of digital publications determine the user sense of community towards the publication. While the pattern of connections among editors and followers reinforces the sense of community, advertisers act as intruders who weaken the feasibility of building a community. Data were collected from followers of digital publications. The dynamics of the sense of community is described as a process in which informational value and identification are essential to nurturing readers’ soft or hard commitment. Findings indicate that the strong ties between editors and followers as well as the diversity positively impacts on informational value and identification, whereas advertising intrusiveness diminishes the informational value.