Robust linear optimization under general norms

We explicitly characterize the robust counterpart of a linear programming problem with uncertainty set described by an arbitrary norm. Our approach encompasses several approaches from the literature and provides guarantees for constraint violation under probabilistic models that allow arbitrary dependencies in the distribution of the uncertain coefficients.     

A discussion on the conservatism of robust linear optimization problems

In 2004, Bertsimas and Sim proposed a robust approach that can control the degree of conservatism by applying a limitation Γ to the maximum number of parameters that are allowed to change. However, the robust approach can become extremely conservative even when Γ is relatively small. In this paper, we provide a theoretical analysis to explain why this extreme conservatism occurs. We further point out that the robust approach does not reach an extremely conservative state when Γ is less than k, where k is the number of nonzero components of the optimal solution of the extremely conservative robust approach. This research also shows that care must be taken when adjusting the value of Γ to control the degree of conservatism because the approach may result in greater conservatism than was intended. We subsequently apply our analysis to additive combinatorial optimization problems. Finally, we illustrate our results on numerical simulations.     

Robust stability and stabilization of linear stochastic systems with Markovian switching and uncertain transition rates

This paper is concerned with the robust stabilization problem for a class of linear uncertain stochastic systems with Markovian switching. The uncertain stochastic system with Markovian switching under consideration involves parameter uncertainties both in the system matrices and in the mode transition rates matrix. New criteria for testing the robust stability of such systems are established in terms of bi-linear matrix inequalities (BLMIs), and sufficient conditions are proposed for the design of robust state-feedback controllers. A numerical example is given to illustrate the effectiveness of our results.     

Exponential stability of simultaneously triangularizable switched systems with explicit calculation of a common Lyapunov function

In this note, a common quadratic Lyapunov function is explicitly calculated for a linear hybrid system described by a family of simultaneously triangularizable matrices. The explicit construction of such a function allows not only obtaining an estimate of the convergence rate of the exponential stability of the switched system under arbitrary switching but also calculating an upper bound for the output during its transient response. Furthermore, the presented result is then extended to the case where the system is affected by parametric uncertainty, providing the corresponding results in terms of the nominal matrices and uncertainty bounds.     

Robust and accurate inference for generalized linear models

In the framework of generalized linear models, the nonrobustness of classical estimators and tests for the parameters is a well known problem, and alternative methods have been proposed in the literature. These methods are robust and can cope with deviations from the assumed distribution. However, they are based on first order asymptotic theory, and their accuracy in moderate to small samples is still an open question. In this paper, we propose a test statistic which combines robustness and good accuracy for moderate to small sample sizes. We combine results from Cantoni and Ronchetti [E. Cantoni, E. Ronchetti, Robust inference for generalized linear models, Journal of the American Statistical Association 96 (2001) 1022–1030] and Robinson, Ronchetti and Young [J. Robinson, E. Ronchetti, G.A. Young, Saddlepoint approximations and tests based on multivariate M-estimators, The Annals of Statistics 31 (2003) 1154–1169] to obtain a robust test statistic for hypothesis testing and variable selection, which is asymptotically χ²-distributed as the three classical tests but with a relative error of order O(n⁻¹). This leads to reliable inference in the presence of small deviations from the assumed model distribution, and to accurate testing and variable selection, even in moderate to small samples.     

Pathwise superhedging for time-dependent barrier options on càdlàg paths—Finite or infinite tradeable European,One-Touch,lookback or forward starting options

We establish pathwise duality using simple predictable trading strategies for the robust hedging problem associated with a barrier option whose payoff depends on the terminal level and the infimum of a càdlàg strictly positive stock price process, given tradeable European options at all strikes at a single maturity. The result allows for a significant dimension reduction in the computation of the superhedging cost, via an alternate lower-dimensional formulation of the primal problem as a convex optimization problem, which is qualitatively similar to the duality which was formally sketched using linear programming arguments in Duembgen and Rogers [10] for the case where we only consider continuous sample paths. The proof exploits a simplification of a classical result by Rogers (1993) which characterizes the attainable joint laws for the supremum and the drawdown of a uniformly integrable martingale (not necessarily continuous), combined with classical convex duality results from Rockefellar (1974) using paired spaces with compatible locally convex topologies and the Hahn–Banach theorem. We later adapt this result to include additional tradeable One-Touch options using the Kertz and Rösler (1990) condition. We also compute the superhedging cost when in the more realistic situation where there is only finite tradeable European options; for this case we obtain the full duality in the sense of quantile hedging as in Soner (2015), where the superhedge works with probability $1?\epsilon$ where $\epsilon$ can be arbitrarily small), and we obtain an upper bound for the true pathwise superhedging cost. In Section 5, we extend our analysis to include time-dependent barrier options using martingale coupling arguments, where we now have tradeable European options at both maturities at all strikes and tradeable forward starting options at all strikes. This set up is designed to approximate the more realistic situation where we have a finite number of tradeable Europeans at both maturities plus a finite number of tradeable forward starting options.¹     

Robust stabilization for a class of uncertain dynamical systems with time delay

In this paper, a new and simple approach whereby we derive several sufficient conditions on robust stabilizability for a class of uncertain dynamical systems with time delay is presented. Some analytical methods and the Bellman-Gronwall inequality are employed to investigate these sufficient conditions. The notable features of the results obtained are their simplicity in testing the stability of uncertain dynamical systems with time delay and their clarity in giving insight into system analysis. Finally, several numerical examples are given to demonstrate the utilization of the results.The authors would like to acknowledge the many helpful comments provided by the reviewer. Particularly, in the light of these comments, the proof of Theorem 3.1 has been considerably shortened.     

Robust stabilization of uncertain linear dynamical systems with time-varying delay

In this paper, the problem of the robust stabilization for a class of uncertain linear dynamical systems with time-varying delay is considered. By making use of an algebraic Riccati equation, we derive some sufficient conditions for robust stability of time-varying delay dynamical systems with unstructured or structured uncertainties. In our approach, the only restriction on the delay functionh(t) is the knowledge of its upper boundh ^–. Some analytical methods are employed to investigate these stability conditions. Since these conditions are independent of the delay, our results are also applicable to systems with perturbed time delay. Finally, a numerical example is given to illustrate the use of the sufficient conditions developed in this paper.     

A robust optimization approach to wine grape harvesting scheduling

Optimization models are increasingly being used in agricultural planning. However, the inherent uncertainties present in agriculture make it difficult. In recent years, robust optimization has emerged as a methodology that allows dealing with uncertainty in optimization models, even when probabilistic knowledge of the phenomenon is incomplete. In this paper, we consider a wine grape harvesting scheduling optimization problem subject to several uncertainties, such as the actual productivity that can be achieved when harvesting. We study how effective robust optimization is solving this problem in practice. We develop alternative robust models and show results for some test problems obtained from actual wine industry problems.     

Forecasting daily supermarket sales using exponentially weighted quantile regression

Inventory control systems typically require the frequent updating of forecasts for many different products. In addition to point predictions, interval forecasts are needed to set appropriate levels of safety stock. The series considered in this paper are characterised by high volatility and skewness, which are both time-varying. These features motivate the consideration of forecasting methods that are robust with regard to distributional assumptions. The widespread use of exponential smoothing for point forecasting in inventory control motivates the development of the approach for interval forecasting. In this paper, we construct interval forecasts from quantile predictions generated using exponentially weighted quantile regression. The approach amounts to exponential smoothing of the cumulative distribution function, and can be viewed as an extension of generalised exponential smoothing to quantile forecasting. Empirical results are encouraging, with improvements over traditional methods being particularly apparent when the approach is used as the basis for robust point forecasting.