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61.
Su-Yun Huang Chuhsing Kate Hsiao Ching-Wei Chang 《Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics》2003,55(3):655-670
The article provides a refinement for the volume-corrected Laplace-Metropolis estimator of the marginal likelihood of DiCiccioet al. The correction volume of probability α in DiCiccioet al. is fixed and suggested to take the value α=0.05. In this article α is selected based on an asymptotic analysis to minimize
the mean square relative error (MSRE). This optimal choice of α is shown to be invariant under linear transformations. The
invariance property leads to easy implementation for multivariate problems. An implementation procedure is provided for practical
use. A simulation study and a real data example are presented. 相似文献
62.
Keith Jonathan M. Kroese Dirk P. Bryant Darryn 《Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability》2004,6(1):29-53
A recent development of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique is the emergence of MCMC samplers that allow transitions between different models. Such samplers make possible a range of computational tasks involving models, including model selection, model evaluation, model averaging and hypothesis testing. An example of this type of sampler is the reversible jump MCMC sampler, which is a generalization of the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm. Here, we present a new MCMC sampler of this type. The new sampler is a generalization of the Gibbs sampler, but somewhat surprisingly, it also turns out to encompass as particular cases all of the well-known MCMC samplers, including those of Metropolis, Barker, and Hastings. Moreover, the new sampler generalizes the reversible jump MCMC. It therefore appears to be a very general framework for MCMC sampling. This paper describes the new sampler and illustrates its use in three applications in Computational Biology, specifically determination of consensus sequences, phylogenetic inference and delineation of isochores via multiple change-point analysis. 相似文献
63.
This paper deals with the analysis of an M/M/c queueing system with setup times. This queueing model captures the major characteristics of phenomena occurring in production
when the system consists in a set of machines monitored by a single operator. We carry out an extensive analysis of the system
including limiting distribution of the system state, waiting time analysis, busy period and maximum queue length.
AMS subject classification: 90B22, 60K25 相似文献
64.
Pierre Gaspard 《Journal of statistical physics》2004,117(3-4):599-615
A concept of time-reversed entropy per unit time is introduced in analogy with the entropy per unit time by Shannon, Kolmogorov, and Sinai. This time-reversed entropy per unit time characterizes the dynamical randomness of a stochastic process backward in time, while the standard entropy per unit time characterizes the dynamical randomness forward in time. The difference between the time-reversed and standard entropies per unit time is shown to give the entropy production of Markovian processes in nonequilibrium steady states. 相似文献
65.
We focus on continuous Markov chains as a model to describe the evolution of credit ratings. In this work it is checked whether a simple, tridiagonal type of generator provides a good approximation to a general one. Three different tridiagonal approximations are proposed and their performance is checked against two generators, corresponding to a volatile and a stable period, respectively. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. 相似文献
66.
Consider a queueing system where customers arrive at a circle according to a homogeneous Poisson process. After choosing their positions on the circle, according to a uniform distribution, they wait for a single server who travels on the circle. The server's movement is modelled by a Brownian motion with drift. Whenever the server encounters a customer, he stops and serves this customer. The service times are independent, but arbitrarily distributed. The model generalizes the continuous cyclic polling system (the diffusion coefficient of the Brownian motion is zero in this case) and can be interpreted as a continuous version of a Markov polling system. Using Tweedie's lemma for positive recurrence of Markov chains with general state space, we show that the system is stable if and only if the traffic intensity is less than one. Moreover, we derive a stochastic decomposition result which leads to equilibrium equations for the stationary configuration of customers on the circle. Steady-state performance characteristics are determined, in particular the expected number of customers in the system as seen by a travelling server and at an arbitrary point in time. 相似文献
67.
主要研究相互粒子系统中概率测度的负相关.我们得到判定概率测度是负相关的一个充分必要条件.最后证明了具有负相关的概率测度的线性组合及乘积测度仍是负相关的. 相似文献
68.
事物未来的状态仅仅受事物现状的影响,而与过去的状态无关,也就是具有马尔可夫性。用马尔可夫链的理论与方法,对具有马尔可夫性产品的可靠性进行预测,既为产品的可靠性设计和产品售后服务的经济性分析提供了参考,也为马尔可夫模型的实际应用拓广了范围。通过实例说明在数学软件的帮助下这种预测方法的简单可行性。 相似文献
69.
本文探讨经短时信号处理后的语音信号帧间相关信息对基于隐马尔可夫模型(HMM)的语音识别系统识虽精度的影响,鉴于HMM的输出独立假设导致语音帧间相关信息的损失,本文提出了一种描述帧间相关信息的统计模型-马尔可夫链(MCM)用来弥补HMM在这方面的缺陷;经非特定人和多话者孤立字实验表明,用MCM作为HMM的辅助模型,可将原有HMM系统的识别率提高约1~6个百分点。 相似文献
70.
Torbjörn Kolsrud 《Journal of Theoretical Probability》1989,2(4):399-418
We derive explicit isomorphism formulas between weighted Dirichlet integrals for harmonic functions and boundary Dirichlet forms. Applications yield results on traces of Markov processes and convergence quasieverywhere of harmonic functions. 相似文献