Analyzing the effect of the inventory policy on order and inventory variability with linear control theory

In this paper we apply linear control theory to study the effect of various inventory policies on order and inventory variability, which are key drivers of supply chain performance. In particular, we study a two-echelon supply chain with a stationary demand pattern under the influence of three inventory policies: an inventory-on-hand policy that bases orders on the visible inventory at an installation, an installation-stock policy that bases orders on the inventory position (on-hand plus on-order inventory) at an installation, and an echelon-stock policy that bases orders on the inventory position at that installation and all downstream installations. We prove analytically that the inventory-on-hand policy is unstable in practical settings, confirming analytically what has been observed in experimental settings and in practice. We also prove that the installation-stock and echelon-stock policies are stable and analyze their effect on order and inventory fluctuation. Specifically, we show the general superiority of the echelon-stock in our setting and demonstrate analytically the effect of forecasting parameters on order and inventory fluctuations, confirming the results in other research.     

技术不确定环境下新产品策略的设计应用

技术的动态发展和企业间的竞争对企业新产品策略有很大影响,直接决定新产品的引进周期。本文在产业技术动态变化的随机环境下构建随机动态规划模型,关注产业技术进步、投资成本和产品市场竞争等影响因素,探讨企业进行新产品引进的周期选择,对新产品引进的周期和质量决策进行方法设计和应用举例。利用随机动态规划模型得出新产品引进的最优时间周期,用算例分析技术进步和产品研发成本对企业引进周期策略的影响,采取策略迭代的方法进行求解,发现技术进步较快时企业的新产品引进步伐也较快,研发成本的提高使企业的新产品引入步伐降低。     

Estimating tail probabilities of heavy tailed distributions with asymptotically zero relative error

Efficient estimation of tail probabilities involving heavy tailed random variables is amongst the most challenging problems in Monte-Carlo simulation. In the last few years, applied probabilists have achieved considerable success in developing efficient algorithms for some such simple but fundamental tail probabilities. Usually, unbiased importance sampling estimators of such tail probabilities are developed and it is proved that these estimators are asymptotically efficient or even possess the desirable bounded relative error property. In this paper, as an illustration, we consider a simple tail probability involving geometric sums of heavy tailed random variables. This is useful in estimating the probability of large delays in M/G/1 queues. In this setting we develop an unbiased estimator whose relative error decreases to zero asymptotically. The key idea is to decompose the probability of interest into a known dominant component and an unknown small component. Simulation then focuses on estimating the latter ‘residual’ probability. Here we show that the existing conditioning methods or importance sampling methods are not effective in estimating the residual probability while an appropriate combination of the two estimates it with bounded relative error. As a further illustration of the proposed ideas, we apply them to develop an estimator for the probability of large delays in stochastic activity networks that has an asymptotically zero relative error.      

APDT-00三极放电管全自动打印机的研制

介绍了新近研制的APTD - 0 0三极放电管全自动打印机的结构特点及整机设计的关键技术 ,阐述了自动上料机构、打印机构和控制电路的设计     

原木随机存贮策略的最优化问题

本主要介绍原木经销商在周期内原木变价销售情况下的最佳期初贮存量的决策方法，在建立期望机会成本的数学模型基础上，探讨原木随机存贮策略的最优化问题。     

Computing Aviation Sparing Policies: Solving a Large Nonlinear Integer Program

Deployed US Navy aircraft carriers must stock a large number of spare parts to support the various types of aircraft embarked on the ship. The sparing policy determines the spares that will be stocked on the ship to keep the embarked aircraft ready to fly. Given a fleet of ten or more aircraft carriers and a cost of approximately 50 million dollars per carrier plus the cost of spares maintained in warehouses in the United States, the sparing problem constitutes a significant portion of the Navy’s resources. The objective of this work is to find a minimum-cost sparing policy that meets the readiness requirements of the embarked aircraft. This is a very large, nonlinear, integer optimization problem. The cost function is piecewise linear and convex while the constraint mapping is highly nonlinear. The distinguishing characteristics of this problem from an optimization viewpoint are that a large number of decision variables are required to be integer and that the nonlinear constraint functions are essentially “black box” functions; that is, they are very difficult (and expensive) to evaluate and their derivatives are not available. Moreover, they are not convex. Integer programming problems with a large number of variables are difficult to solve in general and most successful approaches to solving nonlinear integer problems have involved linear approximation and relaxation techniques that, because of the complexity of the constraint functions, are inappropriate for attacking this problem. We instead employ a pattern search method to each iteration of an interior point-type algorithm to solve the relaxed version of the problem. From the solution found by the pattern search on each interior point iteration, we begin another pattern search on the integer lattice to find a good integer solution. The best integer solution found across all interations is returned as the optimal solution. The pattern searches are distributed across a local area network of non-dedicated, heterogeneous computers in an office environment, thus, drastically reducing the time required to find the solution.     

Determination of a control parameter in a one-dimensional parabolic equation using the method of radial basis functions

In this work, the method of radial basis functions is used for finding the solution of an inverse problem with source control parameter. Because a much wider range of physical phenomena are modelled by nonclassical parabolic initial-boundary value problems, theoretical behavior and numerical approximation of these problems have been active areas of research. The radial basis functions (RBF) method is an efficient mesh free technique for the numerical solution of partial differential equations. The main advantage of numerical methods which use radial basis functions over traditional techniques is the meshless property of these methods. In a meshless method, a set of scattered nodes are used instead of meshing the domain of the problem. The results of numerical experiments are presented and some comparisons are made with several well-known finite difference schemes.     

On the S-procedure and Some Variants

We give a concise review and extension of S-procedure that is an instrumental tool in control theory and robust optimization analysis. We also discuss the approximate S-Lemma as well as its applications in robust optimization.The many suggestions and detailed corrections of an anonymous referee are gratefully acknowledged.     

保险管理决策中的两个问题

本文运用风险决策理论建立了分保限额与红利分派两个保险管理决策问题的数学模型,从理论和实践两个方面讨论了最优管理策略,并给出了计算实例。     

LS SIMD微处理器中的三组指令并发执行的设计

文章介绍了LS SIMD微处理器中实现三组指令并发执行的可能性和必要性，分析了三组指令并发执行给流水线带来的影响，并讨论了控制逻辑对三级指令并发执行的控制及其实现形式。