Asymptotic Behaviour of the Number of Labelled Essential Acyclic Digraphs and Labelled Chain Graphs

We provide an asymptotic formula for the number of labelled essential DAGs a_n and show that lim_na_n/a_n=c, where a_n is the number of labelled DAGs and c13.65, which is interesting in the field of Bayesian networks. Furthermore, we present an asymptotic formula for the number of labelled chain graphs.Acknowledgment. I would like to thank Prof. Peter Grabner for his support and very helpful discussions, which where constitutive for this article. I am also thankful to the referees for their comments.This Research was supported by the Austrian Science Fund (FWF), START-Project Y96-MATFinal version received: January 28, 2004     

Bayesian networks applied to credit scoring

Email: kchang{at}gmu.eduEmail: RobertFung{at}Fairlsaac.comEmail: alan.lucas{at}hotmail.com^¶Email: BobOliver{at}Fairlsaac.com^||Email: NShikaloff{at}Fairlsaac.com The objectives of this paper are to apply the theory and numericalalgorithms of Bayesian networks to risk scoring, and comparethe results with traditional methods for computing scores andposterior predictions of performance variables. Model identification,inference, and prediction of random variables using Bayesiannetworks have been successfully applied in a number of areas,including medical diagnosis, equipment failure, informationretrieval, rare-event prediction, and pattern recognition. Theability to graphically represent conditional dependencies andindependencies among random variables may also be useful incredit scoring. Although several papers have already appearedin the literature which use graphical models for model identification,as far as we know there have been no explicit experimental resultsthat compare a traditionally computed risk score with predictionsbased on Bayesian learning algorithms. In this paper, we examine a database of credit-card applicantsand attempt to ‘learn’ the graphical structure ofthe characteristics or variables that make up the database.We identify representative Bayesian networks in a developmentsample as well as the associated Markov blankets and cliquestructures within the Markov blanket. Once we obtain the structureof the underlying conditional independencies, we are able toestimate the probabilities of each node conditional on its directpredecessor node(s). We then calculate the posterior probabilitiesand scores of a performance variable for the development sample.Finally, we calculate the receiver operating characteristic(ROC) curves and relative profitability of scorecards basedon these identifications. The results of the different modelsand methods are compared with both development and validationsamples. Finally, we report on a statistical entropy calculationthat measures the degree to which cliques identified in theBayesian network are independent of one another.     

基于写相关支持向量描述的入侵防护审计模型研究

设计了基于写相关支持向量描述的安全审计模型来实现一个新的单类分类器,对系统调用中“写性质”子集进行监视和分析,并以此训练单类分类器,使偏离正常模式的活动都被认为是潜在的入侵。该模型仅利用正常样本建立了单分类器,因此系统还具有对新的异常行为进行检测的能力。通过对主机系统执行迹国际标准数据集的优化处理,只利用少量的训练样本,实验获得了对异常样本100%的检测率,而平均虚警率接近为0。     

Unsupervised Bayesian image segmentation using orthogonal series

This paper deals with the problem of unsupervised image segmentation which consists in first mixture identification phase and second a Bayesian decision phase. During the mixture identification phase, the conditional probability density function (pdf) and the a priori class probabilities must be estimated. The most difficult part is the estimation of the number of pixel classes or in other words the estimation of the number of density mixture components. To resolve this problem, we propose here a Stochastic and Nonparametric Expectation-Maximization (SNEM) algorithm. The algorithm finds the most likely number of classes, their associated model parameters and generates a segmentation of the image by classifying the pixels into these classes. The non-parametric aspect comes from the use of the orthogonal series estimator. Experimental results are promising, we have obtained accurate results on a variety of real images.     

Service configuration and user profiling in 4G terminals

This paper presents a middleware platform for managing devices that operate in heterogeneous environments. The proposed management framework supports terminal-controlled, preference-based access network selection. Two separate problems are identified in this domain: one involving the computation of optimal allocations of services to access networks and quality levels (service configuration), and one concerning the dynamic inference of the user’s preferences, according to the usage context (user profiling). This paper includes an approach to the definition, mathematical formulation and solution of both these problems. Indicative results of the proposed solution methods are presented in the context of a real-life scenario simulating a day in the life of an ordinary user.     

一种基于贝叶斯网络的雷达重频模式识别方法

雷达重频模式指雷达脉冲重复间隔（PRI）的调制样式，重频模式识别对于雷达型号、类别识别具有重要支持作用，但这是一个较困难的过程，一般难以通过单一重频特征完成多种复杂重频模式的自动识别。本文为解决雷达多重频模式自动识别及识别抗噪声干扰问题，针对多种重频模式提取了几种PRI序列特征量（重频特征），然后引入了贝叶斯多网络分类器（BMNClassifier），利用所提取的特征量作为贝叶斯多网络分类器输入节点，通过贝叶斯多网络分类器的概率推理能力来实现雷达重频模式识别。     

Approximate importance sampling Monte Carlo for data assimilation

Importance sampling Monte Carlo offers powerful approaches to approximating Bayesian updating in sequential problems. Specific classes of such approaches are known as particle filters. These procedures rely on the simulation of samples or ensembles of the unknown quantities and the calculation of associated weights for the ensemble members. As time evolves and/or when applied in high-dimensional settings, such as those of interest in many data assimilation problems, these weights typically display undesirable features. The key difficulty involves a collapse toward approximate distributions concentrating virtually all of their probability on an implausibly few ensemble members.

After reviewing ensembling, Monte Carlo, importance sampling and particle filters, we present some approximations intended to moderate the problem of collapsing weights. The motivations for these suggestions are combinations of (i) the idea that key dynamical behavior in many systems actually takes place on a low dimensional manifold, and (ii) notions of statistical dimension reduction. We illustrate our suggestions in a problem of inference for ocean surface winds and atmospheric pressure. Real observational data are used.     

基于激光雷达数据SVM分类的室内环境识别研究

语义地图构建对移动机器人导航与规划具有重要意义，而环境分类是语义地图构建的核心问题。目前所采用的环境分类方法匹配率较低，已成为语义地图构建所面临的主要问题。对此笔者提出了一种基于支持向量机的分类方法，该方法利用激光雷达数据提取环境几何特征，训练SVM分类器对机器人工作空间模式进行识别，并将所提算法用于室内环境的语义分类。实验结果表明，该分类方法具有较高的识别率，可有效地实现语义地图构建。     

Joint Monitoring of Several Types of Shocks in Normal Dynamic Linear Models: A Bayesian Decision Theoretic Approach

In this article we consider the sequential monitoring process in normal dynamic linear models as a Bayesian sequential decision problem. We use this approach to build a general procedure that jointly analyzes the existence of outliers, level changes, variance changes, and the development of local correlations. In addition, we study the frequentist performance of this procedure and compare it with the monitoring algorithm proposed in an earlier article.     

Bayesian Multiscale Smoothing for Making Inferences About Features in Scatterplots

A rather common problem of data analysis is to find interesting features, such as local minima, maxima, and trends in a scatterplot. Variance in the data can then be a problem and inferences about features must be made at some selected level of significance. The recently introduced SiZer technique uses a family of nonparametric smooths of the data to uncover features in a whole range of scales. To aid the analysis, a color map is generated that visualizes the inferences made about the significance of the features. The purpose of this article is to present Bayesian versions of SiZer methodology. Both an analytically solvable regression model and a fully Bayesian approach that uses Gibbs sampling are presented. The prior distributions of the smooths are based on a roughness penalty. Simulation based algorithms are proposed for making simultaneous inferences about the features in the data.