Random Variable Generation Using Concavity Properties of Transformed Densities

Abstract

Algorithms are developed for constructing random variable generators for families of densities. The generators depend on the concavity structure of a transformation of the density. The resulting algorithms are rejection algorithms and the methods of this article are concerned with constructing good rejection algorithms for general densities.     

Morse–Smale Regression

This article introduces a novel partition-based regression approach that incorporates topological information. Partition-based regression typically introduces a quality-of-fit-driven decomposition of the domain. The emphasis in this work is on a topologically meaningful segmentation. Thus, the proposed regression approach is based on a segmentation induced by a discrete approximation of the Morse–Smale complex. This yields a segmentation with partitions corresponding to regions of the function with a single minimum and maximum that are often well approximated by a linear model. This approach yields regression models that are amenable to interpretation and have good predictive capacity. Typically, regression estimates are quantified by their geometrical accuracy. For the proposed regression, an important aspect is the quality of the segmentation itself. Thus, this article introduces a new criterion that measures the topological accuracy of the estimate. The topological accuracy provides a complementary measure to the classical geometrical error measures and is very sensitive to overfitting. The Morse–Smale regression is compared to state-of-the-art approaches in terms of geometry and topology and yields comparable or improved fits in many cases. Finally, a detailed study on climate-simulation data demonstrates the application of the Morse–Smale regression. Supplementary Materials are available online and contain an implementation of the proposed approach in the R package msr, an analysis and simulations on the stability of the Morse–Smale complex approximation, and additional tables for the climate-simulation study.     

A Confidence Region Approach to Tuning for Variable Selection

We develop an approach to tuning of penalized regression variable selection methods by calculating the sparsest estimator contained in a confidence region of a specified level. Because confidence intervals/regions are generally understood, tuning penalized regression methods in this way is intuitive and more easily understood by scientists and practitioners. More importantly, our work shows that tuning to a fixed confidence level often performs better than tuning via the common methods based on Akaike information criterion (AIC), Bayesian information criterion (BIC), or cross-validation (CV) over a wide range of sample sizes and levels of sparsity. Additionally, we prove that by tuning with a sequence of confidence levels converging to one, asymptotic selection consistency is obtained, and with a simple two-stage procedure, an oracle property is achieved. The confidence-region-based tuning parameter is easily calculated using output from existing penalized regression computer packages. Our work also shows how to map any penalty parameter to a corresponding confidence coefficient. This mapping facilitates comparisons of tuning parameter selection methods such as AIC, BIC, and CV, and reveals that the resulting tuning parameters correspond to confidence levels that are extremely low, and can vary greatly across datasets. Supplemental materials for the article are available online.     

Logic Regression

Logic regression is an adaptive regression methodology that attempts to construct predictors as Boolean combinations of binary covariates. In many regression problems a model is developed that relates the main effects (the predictors or transformations thereof) to the response, while interactions are usually kept simple (two- to three-way interactions at most). Often, especially when all predictors are binary, the interaction between many predictors may be what causes the differences in response. This issue arises, for example, in the analysis of SNP microarray data or in some data mining problems. In the proposed methodology, given a set of binary predictors we create new predictors such as “X₁, X₂, X³, and X⁴ are true,” or “X⁵ or X⁶ but not X⁷ are true.” In more specific terms: we try to fit regression models of the form g(E[Y]) = b₀ + b₁ L₁ + · · · + b_n L_n , where L_j is any Boolean expression of the predictors. The L_j and b_j are estimated simultaneously using a simulated annealing algorithm. This article discusses how to fit logic regression models, how to carry out model selection for these models, and gives some examples.     

Population Monte Carlo

Importance sampling methods can be iterated like MCMC algorithms, while being more robust against dependence and starting values. The population Monte Carlo principle consists of iterated generations of importance samples, with importance functions depending on the previously generated importance samples. The advantage over MCMC algorithms is that the scheme is unbiased at any iteration and can thus be stopped at any time, while iterations improve the performances of the importance function, thus leading to an adaptive importance sampling. We illustrate this method on a mixture example with multiscale importance functions. A second example reanalyzes the ion channel model using an importance sampling scheme based on a hidden Markov representation, and compares population Monte Carlo with a corresponding MCMC algorithm.     

一类非仿射不确定非线性系统的自适应模糊输出反馈控制

针对一类非仿射的不确定非线性系统,利用H∞控制技术和模糊系统,提出一种基于观测器的混合的直接自适应模糊控制方法,该方法不需要系统的状态变量完全可测,同时取消了最优逼近误差平方可积的假设条件,而且跟踪误差渐近收敛到零。仿真结果表明所提设计方法的有效性。     

基于网格变动的油水驱动半正定问题迎风混合元方法

在网格随时间变动的有限元空间上研究了不可压缩的两相渗流驱动问题.分别对饱和度方程扩散矩阵正定和半正定的情形,提出了基于网格变动的迎风混合元方法混合元逼进压力方程,饱和度方程的对流项采用迎风格式来处理,扩散项则采用推广的混合元来逼进.在网格任意变动的情形下得到几乎最优的误差估计;对正定问题的格式进行改进,即在两个网格之间投影变化时采取近似解的线性构造,可以得到与固定网格时相同的最优收敛阶.     

Error estimation,adaptivity and data transfer in enriched plasticity continua to analysis of shear band localization

In this paper, an adaptive FE analysis is presented based on error estimation, adaptive mesh refinement and data transfer for enriched plasticity continua in the modelling of strain localization. As the classical continuum models suffer from pathological mesh-dependence in the strain softening models, the governing equations are regularized by adding rotational degrees-of-freedom to the conventional degrees-of-freedom. Adaptive strategy using element elongation is applied to compute the distribution of required element size using the estimated error distribution. Once a new mesh is generated, state variables and history-dependent variables are mapped from the old finite element mesh to the new one. In order to transfer the history-dependent variables from the old to new mesh, the values of internal variables available at Gauss point are first projected at nodes of old mesh, then the values of the old nodes are transferred to the nodes of new mesh and finally, the values at Gauss points of new elements are determined with respect to nodal values of the new mesh. Finally, the efficiency of the proposed model and computational algorithms is demonstrated by several numerical examples.     

Adaptive discretization of convex multistage stochastic programs

We propose a new scenario tree reduction algorithm for multistage stochastic programs, which integrates the reduction of a scenario tree into the solution process of the stochastic program. This allows to construct a scenario tree that is highly adapted on the optimization problem. The algorithm starts with a rough approximation of the original tree and locally refines this approximation as long as necessary. Promising numerical results for scenario tree reductions in the settings of portfolio management and power management with uncertain load are presented.     

Stopping criteria for inner iterations in inexact potential reduction methods: a computational study

We focus on the use of adaptive stopping criteria in iterative methods for KKT systems that arise in Potential Reduction methods for quadratic programming. The aim of these criteria is to relate the accuracy in the solution of the KKT system to the quality of the current iterate, to get computational efficiency. We analyze a stopping criterion deriving from the convergence theory of inexact Potential Reduction methods and investigate the possibility of relaxing it in order to reduce as much as possible the overall computational cost. We also devise computational strategies to face a possible slowdown of convergence when an insufficient accuracy is required.