Predictive accuracy determination applied to a linear model phosphorus loading resulting from urban runoff

A case study of the application of an iterative technique for determination of predictive accuracy is presented. The method uses Monte Carlo simulations and split sampling techniques to verify model accuracy. Examination of the ability of a linear parametric runoff loading model's ability to project total phosphorus loadings reveals the sensitivity of the model to calibration procedures. Predictive reliability was found to vary widely as the number of rainfall events considered in the calibration process changed. Predictive reliability was substantially increased by imposing calibration constraints which ensured that a wide distribution of values of the independent variable were presented in the calibration pool.Although the linear model is theoretically weak in its representation of the runoff loading phenomenon, it displays relatively stable predictive capabilities which warrant its consideration for use in management studies. The predictive errors associated with loading projections limit the linear model's value to applications insensitive to errors in the loading projections for individual storm events. This study provides further evidence of the need to consider uncertainties associated with the modelling of water quality phenomena.     

长沙建设国家中心城市的对策研究

建设国家中心城市是长沙市近年的奋斗目标.长沙市怎样建设国家中心城市,可以从与国内其他国家中心城市的全面比照当中得到建设方案.一是从经济实力、产业结构、科教实力、金融行业发展、对外开放等代表城市综合实力的5个方面,二是从引领和辐射功能、集聚功能、物流枢纽功能等代表城市功能的3个方面,对长沙与国内5个国家中心城市(天津、重庆、成都、武汉、郑州)进行对比研究.通过对比,从国内5个国家中心城市的城市功能差别当中找准长沙的城市功能定位,从长沙市城市综合实力的差距和优劣势当中发现长沙建设国家中心城市所要解决的问题,为此提出长沙建设国家中心城市的建设对策.     

大数据背景下基于5S的城市交通拥堵评价模型研究

近几年来,城市交通拥堵问题日益突出,极大制约了城市发展。在大数据背景下,为了准确掌握交通实时拥堵状况,改善城市交通,便利市民出行,本文深入挖掘城市交通拥堵的影响因素,构建了基于交通5S要素的城市拥堵理论模型,运用径向基函数神经网络方法工具,以上海静安寺、上海站、陆家嘴周围三大拥堵路段的交通数据集为例,验证了该模型的有效性。实验结果表明,由该模型获得的城市交通拥堵预测值与上海实际交通路况具有较好的拟合效果,表明交通5S模型与方法能够准确有效地评价城市交通拥堵。     

城市交通疏导的优化算法及应用研究

城市交通是一个随机性很强、复杂的系统.影响城市交通顺畅的因素很多,针对目前交通存在的问题,由具体实例到抽象特性,从城市局部到整体进行了研究分析.在现有硬件设施的基础上,采用最优化算法,对比现有算法存在的缺点提出新的优化策略,便于智能交通管理.     

Quasi-Static Variation of Power-Law and Log-Normal Distributions of Urban Population

We analytically derived and confirmed by empirical data the following three relations from the quasi-time-reversal symmetry, Gibrat’s law, and the non-Gibrat’s property observed in the urban population data of France. The first is the relation between the time variation of the power law and the quasi-time-reversal symmetry in the large-scale range of a system that changes quasi-statically. The second is the relation between the time variation of the log-normal distribution and the quasi-time-reversal symmetry in the mid-scale range. The third is the relation among the parameters of log-normal distribution, non-Gibrat’s property, and quasi-time-reversal symmetry.     

Ethnic Preferences,Social Distance Dynamics,and Residential Segregation: Theoretical Explorations Using Simulation Analysis∗

In this paper I consider theories of residential segregation that emphasize social distance and ethnic preference dynamics. I argue that these theories are more compelling than many critics have supposed, and I conclude that they deserve to be considered more carefully. I then use simulation methodology to assess the potential impact of social distance and ethnic preference dynamics on ethnic segregation under certain theoretically interesting conditions. Based on the results from the simulation analyses, I offer three conclusions: (1) status preferences and status dynamics have the capacity to produce high levels of status segregation but do not produce high levels of ethnic segregation under the specified simulation conditions; (2) ethnic preferences can, under certain theoretically interesting conditions specified in these simulations, produce high levels of ethnic segregation in the absence of housing discrimination; and (3) ethnic preferences and social distance dynamics can, when combined with status preferences, status dynamics, and demographic and urban-structural settings common in American cities, produce highly stable patterns of multi-group segregation and hyper-segregation (i.e., high levels of ethnic segregation on multiple dimensions) of minority populations. Based on these model-based theoretical explorations I speculate that the persistence of segregation in recent decades may have been overdetermined, that is, it may have been sustained by multiple sufficient causes including not only discrimination, but also social distance and preference dynamics. This raises the possibility that reductions in housing discrimination may not necessarily lead to large declines in ethnic segregation in the short run because social distance and preference dynamics may be able to sustain ethnic segregation at surprisingly high levels in the absence of housing discrimination.     

合作博弈视角下城市道路交通拥堵收费研究

城市道路交通设施作为准公用物品,其外部效应必然导致交通拥堵的发生,实施拥堵收费的目的则是使交通拥堵产生的外部成本内部化,确保城市道路资源得到高效配置,应用经济杠杆来调节交通需求,以缓解交通拥堵.本文应用合作博弈相关理论对城市道路拥堵网络问题进行了分析,从同一时刻各个路段的通勤者数目这一角度定义拥堵成本,重点证明了拥堵成本为凸函数的城市道路拥堵网络博弈存在非空的核,拥堵成本为凹函数的城市道路交通网络博弈虽不存在非空的核,但总是存在最优的树网络,最后,结合上述结论对城市道路拥堵收费进行讨论,从理论上对拥堵收费的合理性进行了说明,并提出了进一步研究的方向.     

中水回灌城市内河实验室模拟可行性初探

将城市污水处理厂出水经过处理后作为河道景观补给水的做法正在多个城市应用，本文在假设没有外源性污染的前提下，对宁波市某污水处理厂深度处理后的中水回灌于城市内河可行性进行了实验室模拟，结果显示达到实验水质指标的中水，以每天置换1／30的流量引入受污染城市内河，在解决河道水资源紧缺问题的同时，不会对原有河道水质带来大的危害．文章还针对实际的应用提出了一些建议．     

金华市城市污水处理厂污泥成分及农用价值分析

为确定金华市城市污水处理厂污泥资源化利用途径,对金华市某污水处理厂的脱水污泥进行了采样和成分分析.结果表明,所有污泥为中性,pH 6.89,含水率较高75%;污泥中有机质、氮、磷、钾含量丰富;污泥中重金属的含量较低,均符合国家农用污泥中污染物控制标准.以此为基础对污泥的农用价值及其应用前景作了分析和展望.     

我国城镇化与城乡居民收入差距关系研究

城镇化对城乡居民收入差距的影响广受关注,通过对1985-2012年全国城镇化率与城乡居民收入比时序数据、31个地区2012年的横截面数据进行分析,发现我国城镇化水平与城乡居民收入差距关系呈现倒U型关系,与美、日、韩三国关系一致;通过数学模型估计得到,我国城乡居民收入差距演变趋势的拐点出现在城镇化率为51.4%的水平,我国城乡居民收入差距2011年已经进入拐点;未来要缩小我国城乡居民收入差距,需要继续推进城镇化建设、积极发展中西部地区、有效利用政府政策措施.