因果分析图和AHP法在翻车事故成因分析中的应用

交通事故发生原因错综复杂,是多因素相互作用的结果,很难用一个数学模型来精确描述。交通事故成因分析,探寻交通事故发生规律,为公安交管部门制订预防对策,构筑事故预防体系提供理论依据。因果分析图方法分析交通事故的原因,具有直观、逻辑性强、因果关系明确等特点,能详尽分析事故发生的原因。层次分析法(AHP)能够将量化困难的复杂的定性问题在严格的数学运算上量化。将因果分析图和AHP法2种方法相结合,并应用于翻车事故的成因分析,找出交通事故发生原因的主要影响因素,为交通事故预防和处理提供科学依据。     

A genetic resampling particle filter for freeway traffic-state estimation

On-line estimation of the state of traffic based on data sampled by electronic detectors is important for intelligent traffic management and control.Because a nonlinear feature exists in the traffic state,and because particle filters have good characteristics when it comes to solving the nonlinear problem,a genetic resampling particle filter is proposed to estimate the state of freeway traffic.In this paper,a freeway section of the northern third ring road in the city of Beijing in China is considered as the experimental object.By analysing the traffic-state characteristics of the freeway,the traffic is modeled based on the second-order validated macroscopic traffic flow model.In order to solve the particle degeneration issue in the performance of the particle filter,a genetic mechanism is introduced into the resampling process.The realization of a genetic particle filter for freeway traffic-state estimation is discussed in detail,and the filter estimation performance is validated and evaluated by the achieved experimental data.     

城市快速路交通流速密关系模型优化研究

从实测得到的210920中国城市快速路“车速-车头间距”数据中, 选取包含26773条数据的3个样本作为不同类型交通流的代表, 对多个交通流“速-密关系”模型 进行参数优化和拟合优度比较研究, 给出优化模型参数的定性和定量规律. 修正形式的 Kerner-Konhauser平衡函数和Payne平衡函数通过参数优化, 分别在畅通和拥挤条件下具有 优度相对最高的拟合结果, Greenshields模型(等价地, m=3时的一维管流模型)则对介于 两种条件之间的实测数据具有优度相对最高的拟合结果.     

A Cellular Automaton Model for Heterogeneous and Incosistent Driver Behavior in Urban Traffic

In this paper a cellular automaton model is proposed to describe driver behavior at a single-lane urban roundabout. Driver behavior has been considered as heterogeneous and inconsistent. Most traffic papers in the literature just discussed heterogeneous driver behavior, to our best knowledge. Two truncated Gaussian distributions are used to model heterogeneous and inconsistent driver behavior, respectively. The physical meanings of two truncated distributions are indicated. This method may help enhance a better understanding of driver behavior at roundabout traffic, and even possibly provide references for roundabout design and management.     

New Feedback Control Model in the Lattice Hydrodynamic Model Considering the Historic Optimal Velocity Difference Effect

A feedback control model of lattice hydrodynamic model is proposed by taking the information of the historic optimal velocity into account for the traffic system. The modern control theory is applied for the linear stability condition with feedback control signal. The result shows that the stability of traffic flow is closely related to the information of the historic optimal velocity. Furthermore, numerical simulations conform that the new feedback control did increase the stability of traffic flow efficiently, which is in accord with theoretical analysis.     

Study on the Reduced Traffic Congestion Method Based on Dynamic Guidance Information

This paper studies how to generate the reasonable information of travelers' decision in real network. This problem is very complex because the travelers' decision is constrained by different human behavior. The network conditions can be predicted by using the advanced dynamic OD(Origin-Destination, OD) estimation techniques. Based on the improved mesoscopic traffic model, the predictable dynamic traffic guidance information can be obtained accurately.A consistency algorithm is designed to investigate the travelers' decision by simulating the dynamic response to guidance information. The simulation results show that the proposed method can provide the best guidance information. Further,a case study is conducted to verify the theoretical results and to draw managerial insights into the potential of dynamic guidance strategy in improving traffic performance.     

Traffic-Aware Green Cognitive Radio

Cognitive Radio Network (CRN) has emerged as an effective solution to the spectrum under-utilization problem, by providing secondary users (SUs) an opportunistic access to the unoccupied frequency bands of primary users (PUs). Most of the current research on CRN are based on the assumption that the SU always has a large amount of data to transmit. This leads to the objective of SU throughput maximization with a constraint on the allowable interference to the PU. However, in many of the practical scenarios, the data arrival process of the SU closely follows an ON–OFF traffic model, and thus the usual throughput optimization framework may no longer be suitable. In this paper, we propose an intelligent data scheduling strategy which minimizes the average transmission power of the SU while maintaining the transmission delay to be sufficiently small. The data scheduling problem has been formulated as a finite horizon Markov Decision Process (MDP) with an appropriate cost function. Dynamic programming approach has been adopted to arrive at an optimal solution. Our findings show that the average transmitted power for our proposed approach can be as small as 36.5% of the power required for usual throughput maximization technique with insignificant increase in average delay.     

基于STAMP的航空管制空中危险目标识别方法研究

为了保证航空管制中航空器的完整性,提高航空器的使用寿命,并且可以最大限度的保障航空乘客和其他航空人员的人身安全,需要对航空管制空中危险目标进行识别。但采用当前目标识别方法对空中危险目标识别时,识别系统对空中危险目标无法稳定识别,存在空中危险目标识别精度低的问题。为此,提出一种基于STAMP的航空管制空中危险目标识别方法。该方法先利用STAMP模型对航空管制空中危险目标识别系统各组成部分进行任务分配,然后采用Harris法对空中危险目标进行特征选择和提取,依据Mean-Shift法的Bhattacharyya系数,描述候选空中危险目标和空中目标的危险概率分布相似度,随着Bhattacharyya系数的不断增加,候选空中危险目标和空中危险目标的相似度越大,使危险目标跟踪系统朝着空中目标危险密度增大的位置移动,在最优位置收敛,从而实现空中危险目标跟踪,最后利用D-S理论对跟踪结果进行识别,通过引入空中目标危险性基本概率赋值函数获得空中目标危险基本概率,采用Dempster组合规则对空中目标危险证据进行合成,依据空中危险目标证据融合结果完成对航空管制空中危险目标的识别。实验仿真证明,所提方法增强了航空管制空中危险目标识别的效果,提高了航空管制空中危险目标识别的精度。     

混有协同自适应巡航控制车辆的异质交通流稳定性解析与基本图模型

针对传统车辆和协同自适应巡航控制(cooperative adaptive cruise control,CACC)车辆构成的异质交通流,研究其稳定性与基本图模型.应用实车测试验证的CACC模型和智能驾驶员模型(intelligent driver model)分别作为CACC车辆和传统车辆的跟驰模型,建立异质流稳定性解析框架,研究不同平衡态速度、不同CACC车辆比例时的异质流稳定性.推导异质流基本图模型,并进行数值仿真实验.研究结果表明,在传统车辆稳定的速度范围,异质流处于稳定状态.在传统车辆不稳定的速度范围,CACC车辆比例增加以及平衡态速度远离9.6—18.6 m/s速度范围,均能够改善异质流的不稳定性.通行能力随着CACC车辆比例的增加而提高.此外,CACC模型的期望车间时距越大,异质流稳定域越大,但通行能力降低.因此,恒定车间时距CACC控制策略下的期望车间时距取值应权衡异质流稳定域和通行能力两个方面的影响.     

多路段元胞自动机交通流模型

在经典单路段元胞自动机交通流模型的基础上,将多个路段视为一个道路系统,提出并研究了多路段条件下的交通流问题.针对多路段道路的特点,通过引入车辆流入规则、路口随机慢化规则和路口车辆流入规则,控制车辆从上一路段流入下一路段.首先提出了"汽车池"的概念,来控制每一路口车辆的流入;然后通过路口随机慢化,来模拟路口对交通的影响;最后,当车辆离开时,依直行率进入下一路段,实现车流的继续流动.同时,通过数值模拟,仿真了不同条件下的交通情况,对重要参数进行了研究.结果表明,出现了混合流这一新的现象,拥堵地段与非拥堵地段间存在明显的界限.拥堵往往最先从路口开始,然后蔓延到整个路段.多路段道路还存在临界突变的特性.随着车辆流入概率的增大,路口对平均速度和车流密度的影响愈加明显.当流入概率超过一定阈值时,车辆缓慢地增加也会引起整体道路通行能力的迅速下降.