Asymmetric response and interaction of U.S. and local news in financial markets

This paper examines the extent to which financial returns on market indices exhibit mean and volatility asymmetries, as a response to past information from both the U.S. market and the local market itself. In particular, we wish to assess the asymmetric effect of a combination of local and U.S. market news on volatility. To the best of the authors knowledge, this joint effect has not been considered previously. We propose a double threshold non‐linear heteroscedastic model, combined with a GJR‐GARCH effect in the conditional volatility equation, to capture jointly both mean and volatility asymmetric behaviours and the interactive effect of U.S. and local market news. In an application to five major international market indices, clear evidence of threshold non‐linearity is discovered, supporting the hypothesis of an uneven mean‐reverting pattern and volatility asymmetry, both in reaction to U.S. market news and news from the local market itself. Significant, but somewhat different, interactive effects between local and U.S. news are observed in all markets. An asymmetric pattern in the exogenous relationship between the local market and the U.S. market is also found. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Optimal threshold analysis of segmentation methods for identifying target customers

In CRM (Customer Relationship Management), the importance of a segmentation method for identifying good customers has been increasing. For evaluation of different segmentation methods, Accuracy often plays a key role. This indicator, however, cannot distinguish two types of errors. The purpose of this paper is to overcome this pitfall by introducing two different indicators: Recall and Precision. Assuming that a promotion is addressed exclusively to the selected target customers, the financial effectiveness of the underlying segmentation method is expressed as a function of Recall and Precision. An optimization problem is then formulated so as to maximize the financial measure by finding the optimal threshold level in terms of the severeness for estimating the target set. By introducing a functional form which represents correctness and mistakes about the target set, the unique optimal solution is derived explicitly. The proposed approach is validated by using real customer purchase data.     

Fano varieties with many selfmaps

We study global log canonical thresholds of anticanonically embedded quasismooth weighted Fano threefold hypersurfaces having terminal quotient singularities to prove the existence of a Kähler-Einstein metric on most of them, and to produce examples of Fano varieties with infinite discrete groups of birational automorphisms.     

复合Poisson模型中“双界限”分红问题

引入了复合Poisson模型中的"双界限"分红模型,在这种模型中,当盈余超过上限时分红以不超过保费率的速率付出,低于下限后保费率增大.文中利用Gerber- Shiu函数来分析这种模型,先导出了Gerber-Shiu函数m_1,m_2,m_3满足的积分-微分方程,再给出m_1,m_2,m_3的解析表示,最后通过几步把Gerber-Shiu函数m(u;b_1,b)的解析式表示出来.     

强激光对铜反射镜的热破坏效应

本文给出了一个激光对光学材料表面热破坏效应的简化物理模型及数值研究结果。所得到的铜反射镜热破坏阈值与激光脉宽的关系与实验和理论符合很好。提出了反射镜后表面外冷却临界厚度的概念,并得到一个关于多脉冲积累效应的幂定标关系。     

SETAR model selection-A bootstrap approach

Summary  The aim of this paper is to propose new selection criteria for the orders of selfexciting threshold autoregressive (SETAR) models. These criteria use bootstrap methodology; they are based on a weighted mean of the apparent error rate in the sample and the average error rate obtained from bootstrap samples not containing the point being predicted. These new criteria are compared with the traditional ones based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC). A simulation study and an example on a real data set end the paper.     

一类带有Holling Ⅱ类功能性反应和相互干扰及脉冲效应的捕食系统

A kind of predator-prey system of Holling typeⅡand interaction perturbation with impulsive effect is presented.By using Floquet theory and small amplitude perturbations skills,the locally asymptotical stability of prey-eradication periodic solution and the permanence of the system are discussed and the corresponding threshold conditions are given respectively.Finally,the existence of positive periodic solution is investigated by the bifurcation theory.     

Monte Carlo simulation of three-dimensional dilute Ising model

A multispin coding program for site-diluted Ising models on large simple cubic lattices is described in detail. The spontaneous magnetization is computed as a function of temperature, and the critical temperature as a function of concentration is found to agree well with the data of Marro et al.⁽⁴⁾ and Landau⁽³⁾ for smaller systems.The first successful epsilon expansion seems to be by D. E. Khmelnitskii,ZhETF 68:1960 (1975), English translationSov. Phys. JETP 41:981 (1975); for numerical estimates see K. E. Newman and E. K. Riedel,Phys. Rev. H25:264 (1982), for experiments see R. J. Birgenau, R. A. Cowley, G. Shirane and H. Yoshizawa,J. Stat. Phys. 34:817 (1984).     

Enhancement of electrical conductivity,director relaxation frequency and slope of electro-optical characteristics in the composites of single-walled carbon nanotubes and a strongly polar nematic liquid crystal

In the present work, single-walled carbon nanotubes (SWCNTs) were dispersed in a room temperature nematic liquid crystal 4-pentyl-4′-cyanobiphenyl at the concentration of 0.02 and 0.05 wt%. Differential scanning calorimetry and temperature-dependent dielectric studies suggest decrease in clearing temperature of the composite materials as compared to the pure material. Ionic conductivity increases by two orders of magnitude due to the dispersion of such a low concentration (0.05 wt%) of SWCNTs. Dielectric studies also show that the presence of the SWCNTs decreases the effective longitudinal as well as transverse components of the dielectric permittivity. For homeotropic aligned samples, a relaxation mechanism has been detected in the lower MHz region both for the pure as well as dispersed samples. Presence of SWCNTs increases the relaxation frequency corresponding to flip-flop motion of molecules around their short axes. From frequency-dependent dielectric studies, important dielectric parameters such as relaxation frequency, dielectric strength and distribution parameters have been determined. Electro-optical experiments show that the threshold voltage decreases and the steepness of the transmission voltage curve improves due to the dispersion of SWCNTs.     

自组惠斯登电桥测电阻中的误差及分析

通过分析惠斯登电桥测电阻的误差,提出改进实验方法提高灵敏度,减小测量误差.