基于时滞动力学模型对钻石公主号邮轮疫情的分析

2019年末以来,新型冠状病毒肺炎迅速蔓延的疫情引发了全球关注.文献[5-6]提出了一类时滞动力学系统的新冠肺炎传播模型用以描述疫情的发展趋势.文献[7]在此基础上,结合CCDC统计数据,提出了一类基于CCDC统计数据的随机时滞动力学模型.本文将使用以上两类模型研究分析"钻石公主号"邮轮的疫情发展.基于日本厚生劳动省公布的数据,本文准确反演出模型参数,进而有效模拟当前疫情的发展,并预测疫情未来的趋势,发现在疫情爆发初期基本再生数R0(t)较大,而后随着防控措施加强而逐渐减小;约在2月下旬,累计确诊人数增长速度放缓,在3月上旬,累计确诊人数趋于稳定,即无新增确诊人数,疫情得到有效控制;最终累计确诊人数对隔离率变化敏感,隔离率升高,最终累计确诊人数将有显著下降.针对传染率较高、隔离率较低的问题,本文建议日本政府进一步加强防控措施,抑制疫情的大规模爆发.     

Information percolation and cutoff for the random‐cluster model

We consider the random‐cluster model (RCM) on with parameters p∈(0,1) and q ≥ 1. This is a generalization of the standard bond percolation (with edges open independently with probability p) which is biased by a factor q raised to the number of connected components. We study the well‐known Fortuin‐Kasteleyn (FK)‐dynamics on this model where the update at an edge depends on the global geometry of the system unlike the Glauber heat‐bath dynamics for spin systems, and prove that for all small enough p (depending on the dimension) and any q>1, the FK‐dynamics exhibits the cutoff phenomenon at with a window size , where λ_∞ is the large n limit of the spectral gap of the process. Our proof extends the information percolation framework of Lubetzky and Sly to the RCM and also relies on the arguments of Blanca and Sinclair who proved a sharp mixing time bound for the planar version. A key aspect of our proof is the analysis of the effect of a sequence of dependent (across time) Bernoulli percolations extracted from the graphical construction of the dynamics, on how information propagates.     

Approximation properties of the generalized Szasz operators by multiple Appell polynomials via power summability method

In this paper some properties of the generalized Szasz operators by multiple Appell polynomials are given, using into consideration the power summability method. In the first section are given some direct estimation related to the generalized Szasz operators by multiple Appell polynomials, including Korovkin type theorem. In the second section, we give some results related to the weighted spaces of continuous functions and Voronovskaya type theorem. In the third section, we have proved some results related to the statistical convergence of the generalized Szasz operators by multiple Appell polynomials, using into consideration the A− transformation. At the end of the paper are given some illustrative computational examples which make such summability methods (for example, power series method) more useful and fruitful for applications of functional analysis in approximation theory.     

随机次自相似集的表示

本文引进了随机次自相似集与随机推移集的概念,讨论了随机次自相似集的结构,并证明了任一随机集是随机次自相似集的充分必要条件是：该随机集可以表为某一个随机推移集的某个像集。     

从一个例子看统计分析在辅助医学诊断中的有用之处

从讨论影响脂肪肝的主要因素排序出发,应用简明统计分析,给出了辅助医学诊断中用于判断患者患脂肪肝的可能性,由此,对于可能性为零的情形可以排除进一步的生化检查,也就不会发生相应的感染.     

基于统计过程控制技术的项目管理可视化控制系统

概述IMCS-SPC模型的总体框架、组成部分以及两大核心技术(多变量统计过程控制技术和虚拟现实可视化技术);详细讨论项目管理者构建IMCS-SPC模型的基本步骤。作为一种采用多元统计分析进行过程控制的可视化决策支持系统,IMCS-SPC为项目管理者提供了一种十分清晰、直观的过程控制方法和工具,可有效提高项目管理效率,以确保项目过程的正常运行。     

概率论与数理统计课程改革的创新机制

针对课程改革的目的,结合教学实践,就概率统计课程建设和教学改革的必要性进行综合分析并主张：通过讲述概率统计理论发展史,引导学生明确学习重点;借助多媒体教学,整合教学大纲内容,系统教学;将理论与实际相联系,激发学生学习兴趣;立足基本理论,开设统计学软件实验课程．     

A survey on the global optimization problem: General theory and computational approaches

Several different approaches have been suggested for the numerical solution of the global optimization problem: space covering methods, trajectory methods, random sampling, random search and methods based on a stochastic model of the objective function are considered in this paper and their relative computational effectiveness is discussed. A closer analysis is performed of random sampling methods along with cluster analysis of sampled data and of Bayesian nonparametric stopping rules.     

湍流相干结构机理研究(Ⅲ)——湍流拟序结构的统计及动力模型及其对传热影响研究

在文献[1]、[2]的启发下,本文建立一个零压梯度下,考虑局部产生以及外来扰动涡旋的壁湍流边界层大涡拟序结构的统计及动力学模型.在此基础上对充分发展的宽明渠流动中壁面附近的热扩散进行了数值模拟,建立了边界层拟序脉动速度和温度的数据库,发现了与速度快慢条相对应的高低温流条及其随时间在展向的摆动.数值模拟结果与前人的计算和实验结果吻合很好.     

生产函数的优化回归方法

本文讨论了生产函数的理论定义及常用方法，并提出了生产函数的一种优化技术．利用数据包络分析方法确定生产前沿面，求样本点在该边界面上的投影，然后对投影点进行统计回归即获得随机前沿生产函数．