基于短时强降雨探测的拉曼激光雷达测温数据WRF同化方法

为挖掘激光雷达高垂直分辨探测优势,将其引入降雨观测与研究中,重点构建一套测温数据模式同化方法,目的在于评估激光雷达数据对降雨模拟的影响.借助激光雷达测温数据综合多级质量控制技术对雨前探测信号进行反演优化,获取更可靠的温度廓线,这种垂直间隔4m左右的雷达数据对于降雨是一种新型数据.设计三步实验研究新数据WRF模式(wea...     

Design of Optimal Rainfall Monitoring Network Using Radar and Road Networks

Uncertainty in the rainfall network can lead to mistakes in dam operation. Sudden increases in dam water levels due to rainfall uncertainty are a high disaster risk. In order to prevent these losses, it is necessary to configure an appropriate rainfall network that can effectively reflect the characteristics of the watershed. In this study, conditional entropy was used to calculate the uncertainty of the watershed using rainfall and radar data observed from 2018 to 2019 in the Goesan Dam and Hwacheon Dam watersheds. The results identified radar data suitable for the characteristics of the watershed and proposed a site for an additional rainfall gauge. It is also necessary to select the location of the additional rainfall gauged by limiting the points where smooth movement and installation, for example crossing national borders, are difficult. The proposed site emphasized accessibility and usability by leveraging road information and selecting a radar grid near the road. As a practice result, the uncertainty of precipitation in the Goesan and Hwacheon Dam watersheds could be decreased by 70.0% and 67.9%, respectively, when four and three additional gauge sites were installed without any restriction. When these were installed near to the road, with five and four additional gauge sites, the uncertainty in the Goesan Dam and Hwacheon Dam watersheds were reduced by up to 71.1%. Therefore, due to the high degree of uncertainty, it is necessary to measure precipitation. The operation of the rainfall gauge can provide a smooth site and configure an appropriate monitoring network.     

我国东部持续性暴雨水汽输送特征的比较分析

运用基于拉格朗日方法的气流轨迹模式（HYSPLIT）,并结合欧拉方法,分析了江淮、江南和华南3个不同区域多个PHR过程期间的水汽通道和水汽输送特征以及通道建立和维持的天气学条件.不同区域PHR过程发生时,水汽通道及其贡献率、异常环流特征等都不同,且这些差异主要集中在南海和西太平洋地区.从水汽收支来看,华南与另外2个区域的差异较大.从水汽通道和异常环流的角度上看,江南与另外2个区域的差异较大.     

基于微波链路的降雨场反演方法研究

本文基于微波雨衰的幂律关系, 研究了使用微波链路反演降雨场的方法, 采用层析技术建立了降雨场反演模型. 并利用SIRT算法与正则化算法实现对降雨场层析反演模型的求解. 数值模拟结果表明, 该模型与反演算法能够较为准确地重建降雨场强度与空间分布特征, 能够提供高时空分辨率的二维降雨强度分布. 因此, 利用微波衰减数据进行降雨探测可以作为常规的雨量计与天气雷达观测手段的有效补充. 关键词： 微波雨衰 微波链路 降雨场重建 层析反演     

The threshold method for estimating total rainfall

The threshold method estimates the total rainfall F _G in a region G using the area B _G of the subregion where rainfall intensity exceeds a certain threshold value c. We model the rainfall in a region by a marked spatial point process and derive a correlation formula between F _G and B _G. This correlation depends not only on the rainfall distribution but also on the variation of number of raining sites, showing the importance of taking account of the spatial character of rainfall. In the extreme case where the variation of number of raining sites is dominant, the threshold method may work regardless of rainfall distributions and even regardless of threshold values. We use the lattice gas model from statistical physics to model raining sites and show a huge variation in the number of raining sites is theoretically possible if a phase transition occurs, that is, physically different states coexist. Also, we show by radar observation datasets that there are huge variations of raining sites actually.     

江淮流域持续性暴雨过程水汽输送状况初析

选取江淮流域5个持续性暴雨过程,利用NCAR／NCEP再分析资料对水汽通量进行分析,结合HYSPLIT模式中空气质点倒退运动轨迹的计算,揭示此类强降水事件中海量水汽的源地、输送通道的统计特征和通道建立的天气系统条件：水汽多起源于南印度洋低纬度地区,越赤道气流、阿拉伯海急流、孟加拉湾急流和我国东南沿海低空急流在输送过程不同时期对于输送路径的形成起了重要的作用,同时亚洲夏季风系统的印度季风低压和西太平洋副热带高压的强度和位置也影响着输送路径．并在此基础上,提出了一个形成该类过程的水汽输送条件的初步概念模型．     

江淮流域持续性暴雨过程的中期信号初析

江淮流域持续性暴雨过程是造成大范围洪涝的高影响天气事件,了解导致此类事件的全球和区域影响,对改进其预报是十分必要的．针对1951～2004年间16个典型个例,利用NCEP再分析资料,对事件发生前1～30d的全球环流场进行了相关与合成分析相结合的天气学统计普查,揭示了与此类过程显著相关的前期环流信号的时空分布特征,并初步探讨了主要信号对过程形成可能的影响和联系：过程前3～4k,赤道太平洋对流层中高层的暖性高压增强,并通过遥相关影响后期西太平洋副热带高压加强西伸及白令海附近低压的形成和加深;同期,南美洲南部南极附近的冷槽加深,其后能量频散至马达加斯加岛附近,有利于前2～3k南印度洋副热带地区以及西南太平洋西风带地区显著Rossby波列的出现,相应在马达加斯加岛南侧、澳大利亚西侧及新西兰东侧洋面上分别出现显著的低槽加深,经向环流增强;马达加斯扣岛附近的纬向风异常通过经向遥相关对应北半球欧洲地区所出现的多个正负相间的纬向风异常,导致欧洲中纬度环流经向度加大,从而触发欧亚Rossby波列的形成和东传,该波列中三个稳定的波槽分别位于伊朗高原、我国东部洋面和太平洋中部洋面,并使青藏高压加强北挺;最后随着波列消失,我国东部洋面低槽减弱北缩,副热带高压趋于加强西仲,促使事件的背景环流备件最终形成．     

Feasibility study of artificial rainfall system using ion seeding with high voltage source

A non-linear computational modelling of ions from the ground station for electrifying the atmosphere to make feasibility study of artificial rainfall system is proposed and analyzed. The model considers generation of intermediate ions and ionized airflow velocity. The governing electro hydrodynamic (EHD) equations of the model shows that the space charge density, electric field intensity and velocity of the ionized airflow are function of high input voltage applied to generate the ions. The number of ions generated and their velocity is proportional to the applied ion generator voltage.These artificial ions will be introduced in the atmosphere which will act in a similar manner as cosmic rays. These ions will ionize the aerosols and catalyze nucleation processes and thus electrify the atmosphere which will form cloud droplets to get artificial rain. The mathematical model to study the feasibility of artificial rainfall is also validated under favourable conditions.     

用模糊数学方法刻划公众对天气预报的感受度

气象部门将6小时的降雨按降雨量划分为无雨、小雨、中雨、大雨、暴雨、大暴雨及特大暴雨七个级别进行预报,这与公众感受认可这些降雨量级别的程度是有差异的.即使气象部门预报的很准,这种差异有可能使公众感受到降雨级别的程度和预报的级别不符,从而认为预报得不准确,用模糊数学的方法对公众的感受度进行了刻划,给出了计算预报数据与公众感受度差异的数值公式及方法.     

确定观测站点预报雨量的两种方法

对2005年高教社杯全国大学生数学建模竞赛C题"雨量预报方法的评价"的解决方法进行了讨论.给出了确定观测站点预报雨量的距离权重法与插值法,并进行了比较.同时,对预报质量的进一步提高进行了探讨.