Analysis of the relationship between total and effective rainfall by means of streamflow shot noise and rainfall stochastic models

Linking the results of two research topics on rainfall and streamflow stochastic models, the relationship between total and effective rainfall is studied here. The short time streamflow process is examined concerning the climatic and hydrogeological characters of the watershed, identifying four distinct components giving rise to runoff. In this way the watershed can be regarded as a four-component linear system, whose input is the effective rainfall. Finally, the streamflow model is used as an effective rainfall inverse estimator, allowing the analysis of the links between total and effective rainfall assuming a simple transformation law. The determination of this law is performed by applying a stochastic model, whose parameters are estimated on the companion series of recorded total rainfall and reconstructed effective rainfall. An application to a case study shows the effectiveness of the proposed approach.

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Sommario Raccordando i risultati di due ricerche sui modelli stocastici di pioggia e dei deflussi, vengono qui studiate le relazioni fra la pioggia totale e la pioggia efficace. I deflussi aggregati a breve scala temporale sono esaminati alla luce delle caratteristiche climatiche e idrogeologiche del bacino idrografico, identificando quanttro distinte componenti che danno origine al deflusso. II bacino idrografico viene così rappresentato da un sistema lineare a quattro componenti, il cui input è la pioggia efficace. Pertanto, il modello dei deflussi viene usato per effettuare la stima inversa delle piogge efficaci, consentendo lo studio delle relazioni fra le piogge totali ed efficaci ipotizzando una semplice legge di trasformazione. La determinazione di questa legge è effettuata applicando un modello stocastico, i cui parametri sono stimati sulle serie corrispondenti di pioggia totale registrata e di pioggia efficace ricostruita. Un'applicazione a un caso reale mostra l'efficacia dell'approccio proposto.

     

1960―2017年秦岭南北地区降雨侵蚀力的时空变化特征研究

基于秦岭南北地区1960―2017年47个气象站点逐日降雨资料,根据章文波提出的日降雨侵蚀力模型估算降雨侵蚀力,并采用气候倾向率、反距离权重插值及Mann-Mendal突变检验等方法分析秦岭南北地区近58 a年均降雨侵蚀力与不同量级降雨侵蚀力的时空变化特征。 结果表明：（1） 1960―2017年秦岭南北地区年均降雨侵蚀力与不同雨量产生的降雨侵蚀力均呈由南向北递减的特征。（2）近58 a,秦岭南北地区年均降雨侵蚀力、大雨与暴雨侵蚀力年际变化呈增长趋势,未通过突变检测;中雨侵蚀力呈减弱趋势,在1972年发生突变且在2007年后达到显著;其中秦岭以北年均降雨侵蚀力、中雨侵蚀力、暴雨侵蚀力均呈下降趋势,且年际波动程度较大,秦岭以南年均降雨侵蚀力及大雨、暴雨侵蚀力均呈上升趋势。（3）秦岭南北地区年均降雨侵蚀力变化趋势空间差异显著,明显增长区集中于汉中盆地与巴巫谷地,减少区集中于西部嘉陵江、秦岭以北汾河入黄河交界、汉水流域两湖平原;且不同量级侵蚀力呈增长趋势的面积大小依次为大雨侵蚀力>暴雨侵蚀力>中雨侵蚀力。     

基于HP-ENN-MC模型降雨量预测

综合HP滤波、Elman神经网络、马尔科夫链的优点建立HP-ENN-MC模型对某地区10年内降雨量进行预测.以某地区1990-2015年植物生育期(6-10月)的降雨量数据作为实验训练样本,以2010-2015年(6-10月)的降雨量数据为实验的测试样本,证明HP-ENN-MC模型的实用性.由最后实验结果得到,预测平均相对误差为3.83%.所建模型能够对降雨量准确预测,与Elman、ENN-MC模型相比,HP-ENN-MC模型对降雨量预测更有效.     

几种模拟逐日降水的分布函数比较分析

在模拟逐日降水方面,将马尔科夫链和某种分布函数相结合建立随机模型的方法在国外很多地区被证明是有效的,但该方法在我国的适用性研究并不多见.本文应用哈尔滨48年的实测降水资料,基于一阶马尔科夫两状态转移概率,分别采用皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布、伽玛分布和偏正态分布函数模拟了哈尔滨的1000年逐日降水过程.对比分析结果表明,伽玛分布更适合模拟哈尔滨的逐日降水过程,基于伽玛分布函数模拟的月份降水量和降水天数与实测降水数据符合较好.     

Rain induced depolarization from 1 GHz to 300 GHz in a tropical environment

The rain induced depolarization in a tropical environment has been studied using a tropical raindrop size distribution developed by Ajayi and Olsen (A-O). The differential attenuation, differential phase shift and cross polarization discrimination, XPD, were computed over a frequency range of 1GHz to 300GHz for spheroidal drops and up to 33GHz for Pruppacher-Pitter drops. The variations of XPD with frequency, rainfall rate and copolar attenuation, CPA, were investigated. A mathematical relationship was established between the XPD and the CPA, canting angle and frequency of propagation from 5GHz to 300 GHz for spheroidal drops and up to 33 GHz for Pruppacher-Pitter drops. The results obtained using the A-O drop size distribution have been compared with those assuming the Laws and Parsons (L-P) distribution. The Pruppacher-Pitter drop shape has been found to give rise to higher XPD, especially at low CPA and high frequencies.     

雷达定量测量降水的检验“真值”求取方法研究

利用湖南省2013年汛期(4—9月)的高密度区域自动站的雨量数据,引入Cressman逐步订正法求取0.01?×0.01?精细网格的区域降水量,并与距离平方倒数法、距离指数法和距离平方指数法计算的区域降水量进行比较.结果表明,Cressman逐步订正法计算的区域降水量与距离平方倒数法和距离指数法的结果相当,但其空间结构更为精细和准确,更好地反映了雨量站数据的分布特征.交叉验证表明Cressman逐步订正法与原始区域自动站值最为接近,误差绝对值小于0.5 mm的雨量站占总站数的98.71%,误差标准差为0.24 mm.对于0.01?×0.01?精细的空间分辨率而言,Cressman逐步订正法利用高密度的区域自动站数据求得的区域降水量可以用于检验雷达定量估测降水.     

Large Scale Experiment on Transport of Trichloroethylene in a Controlled Aquifer

Pollution by dense non-aqueous phase liquids (DNAPLs) represents a major threat to groundwater resources. In a real case of site contamination, the efficiency of remediation techniques is often limited by a lack of knowledge of both the extent of the pollution and the behavior of the different phases of the pollutant in the subsurface. An experiment simulating pollution of an aquifer by a chlorinated solvent (Trichloroethylene: TCE) was conducted on a large controlled experimental site called SCERES. The experiment consisted of an injection of 8.9 liters of TCE under controlled conditions at 35cm below the soil surface with an appropriate set up. The goal was to study the behavior of the three phases of the pollutant (trapped TCE phase forming the impregnation body, vapors in the vadose zone, and dissolved traces in the aquifer) in order to better comprehend the mechanisms which govern the propagation and the transfer of this type of pollution underground. The SCERES experimental data indicate that mass transfer from the saturated zone to the vadose zone is important, affecting the repartition of the vapor plume and causing a significant decrease of dissolved TCE concentrations in the groundwater. Furthermore, vertical leaching of TCE vapors due to rainfall strongly influences the degree of groundwater pollution and its lateral extent. The transient mass balance of the experiment is very satisfactory and shows that the main part of the spilled quantity is lost to the atmosphere.     

Cell-Site Diversity Performance of LMDS Systems Operating in Heavy Rain Climatic Regions

In this paper, the potential performance advantages of ce ll-site diversity in millimeter-wave fixed cellular systems located in heavy rain climatic regions are examined. Cell-site diversity is considered an efficient technique to mitigate the aggravating effects of atmospheric propagation of radiowaves at millimeter frequency bands and, particularly, to combat rain attenuation. The paper is focused on the analytical estimation of the performance improvement of LMDS systems due to diversity reception. A physical prediction model for rain attenuation, properly modified to take into account the behaviour of the rainfall medium in tropical and subtropical areas, is the basis of the analysis. Implementations of the proposed model are presented along with an investigation of its various aspects. This work was mainly stimulated by the recent strong interest to provide technically and economically feasible solutions for broadband wireless access to the developing countries.