嵌套病例对照研究中的两步估计方法（英）

本文讨论嵌套病例对照研究中相对危险率的估计问题，引入了相对危险率的两步估计，并在一般嵌套病例对照抽样的假设下讨论了相对危险率的两步估计的相合性问题，最后给出了几个例子。     

Some properties of the bivariate lognormal distribution for reliability applications

In this paper, we study the bivariate lognormal distribution from a reliability point of view. The conditional distribution of X given Y > y is found to be log‐skew normal. The monotonicity of the hazard rates of the univariate as well as the conditional distributions is discussed. Clayton's association measure is obtained in terms of the hazard gradient, and its value in the case of our model is derived. The probability distributions, in the case of series and parallel systems, are derived, and the monotonicity of their failure rates is discussed. Three real applications of the bivariate lognormal distribution are provided, two from financial economics and one from reliability. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Budget-constrained optimal insurance with belief heterogeneity

We re-examine the problem of budget-constrained demand for insurance indemnification when the insured and the insurer disagree about the likelihoods associated with the realizations of the insurable loss. For ease of comparison with the classical literature, we adopt the original setting of Arrow (1971), but allow for divergence in beliefs between the insurer and the insured; and in particular for singularity between these beliefs, that is, disagreement about zero-probability events. We do not impose the no sabotage condition on admissible indemnities. Instead, we impose a state-verification cost that the insurer can incur in order to verify the loss severity, which rules out ex post moral hazard issues that could otherwise arise from possible misreporting of the loss by the insured. Under a mild consistency requirement between these beliefs that is weaker than the Monotone Likelihood Ratio (MLR) condition, we characterize the optimal indemnity and show that it has a simple two-part structure: full insurance on an event to which the insurer assigns zero probability, and a variable deductible on the complement of this event, which depends on the state of the world through a likelihood ratio. The latter is obtained from a Lebesgue decomposition of the insured’s belief with respect to the insurer’s belief.     

风险企业的委托-代理模型

传统的委托—代理理论在解释风险企业家的行为时遇到了困难。通过对传统的委托—代理理论进行重新构造和拓展，本提出逆反努力法则，验证了隐藏行动的道德风险的存在，并通过Newton迭代法和图形学方法对风险企业家的长期努力水平进行计算，发现努力水平对努力效应指数n表现出协同效应。     

Gaining efficiency via weighted estimators for multivariate failure time data

Multivariate failure time data arise frequently in survival analysis. A commonly used technique is the working independence estimator for marginal hazard models. Two natural questions are how to improve the efficiency of the working independence estimator and how to identify the situations under which such an estimator has high statistical efficiency. In this paper, three weighted estimators are proposed based on three different optimal criteria in terms of the asymptotic covariance of weighted estimators. Simplified close-form solutions are found, which always outperform the working independence estimator. We also prove that the working independence estimator has high statistical efficiency, when asymptotic covariance of derivatives of partial log-likelihood functions is nearly exchangeable or diagonal. Simulations are conducted to compare the performance of the weighted estimator and working independence estimator. A data set from Busselton population health surveys is analyzed using the proposed estimators. This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 10628104), Fan was also supported by National Institutes of Health (Grant No. R01-GM072611) and Natural Science Foundation (Grant No. DMS-0714554), Zhou was supported by National Natural Science Funds for Distinguisheel Young Scholar (Grant No. 70825004), National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 10731010, 10628104), the National Basic Research Program (Grant No. 2007CB814902), Creative Research Groups of China (Grant No. 10721101) and Leading Academic Disipline Program, the 10 ^th five year plan of 211 Project for Shanghai University of Finance and Economics (the 3 ^rd phase), Cai was supported by National Institutes of Health (Grant No. R01-HL57444)     

Optimal reinsurance under risk and uncertainty

This paper deals with the optimal reinsurance problem if both insurer and reinsurer are facing risk and uncertainty, though the classical uncertainty free case is also included. The insurer and reinsurer degrees of uncertainty do not have to be identical. The decision variable is not the retained (or ceded) risk, but its sensitivity with respect to the total claims. Thus, if one imposes strictly positive lower bounds for this variable, the reinsurer moral hazard is totally eliminated.Three main contributions seem to be reached. Firstly, necessary and sufficient optimality conditions are given in a very general setting. Secondly, the optimal contract is often a bang–bang solution, i.e., the sensitivity between the retained risk and the total claims saturates the imposed constraints. Thirdly, the optimal reinsurance problem is equivalent to other linear programming problem, despite the fact that risk, uncertainty, and many premium principles are not linear. This may be important because linear problems may be easily solved in practice, since there are very efficient algorithms.     

Stochastic comparison of aggregate claim amounts between two heterogeneous portfolios and its applications

The aggregate claim amount in a particular time period is a quantity of fundamental importance for proper management of an insurance company and also for pricing of insurance coverages. In this paper, we show that the proportional hazard rates (PHR) model, which includes some well-known distributions such as exponential, Weibull and Pareto distributions, can be used as the aggregate claim amount distribution. We also present some conditions for the use of exponentiated Weibull distribution as the claim amount distribution. The results established here complete and extend the well-known result of Khaledi and Ahmadi (2008).     

Some properties and applications of cumulative Kullback–Leibler information

The cumulative Kullback–Leibler information has been proposed recently as a suitable extension of Kullback–Leibler information to the cumulative distribution function. In this paper, we obtain various results on such a measure, with reference to its relation with other information measures and notions of reliability theory. We also provide some lower and upper bounds. A dynamic version of the cumulative Kullback–Leibler information is then proposed for past lifetimes. Furthermore, we investigate its monotonicity property, which is related to some new concepts of relative aging. Moreover, we propose an application to the failure of nanocomponents. Finally, in order to provide an application in image analysis, we introduce the empirical cumulative Kullback–Leibler information and prove an asymptotic result. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

具有私人信息的道德风险的委托—代理人模型的合约分析

本文对存在的不对称信息的环境下的具有私人信息道德风险的委托—代理人模型的合约问题进行了详细的讨论,并得出一些有新意的结论.此讨论问题的方法很值得推荐和推广,特别是在最优激励合同中,比如投资激励,管理机制中的激励,销售激励,保险激励等合同的设计,都可以借鉴此方法来研究和分析.