On the Choice of Nugget in Kriging Modeling for Deterministic Computer Experiments

Kriging is commonly used for developing emulators as surrogates for computationally intensive simulations. One difficulty with kriging is the potential numerical instability in the computation of the inverse of the covariance matrix, which can lead to large variability and poor performance of the kriging predictor. First, we study some causes of ill-conditioning in kriging. We then study the use of nugget in kriging to overcome the numerical instability. Some asymptotic results on its interpolation bias and mean squared prediction errors are presented. Finally, we study the choice of the nugget parameter based on some algebraic lower bounds and use of a regularizing trace. A simulation study is performed to show the differences between kriging with and without nugget and to demonstrate the advantages of the former. This article has supplementary materials online.     

On condition numbers for Moore–Penrose inverse and linear least squares problem involving Kronecker products

In this paper, we investigate the normwise, mixed, and componentwise condition numbers and their upper bounds for the Moore–Penrose inverse of the Kronecker product and more general matrix function compositions involving Kronecker products. We also present the condition numbers and their upper bounds for the associated Kronecker product linear least squares solution with full column rank. In practice, the derived upper bounds for the mixed and componentwise condition numbers for Kronecker product linear least squares solution can be efficiently estimated using the Hager–Higham Algorithm. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Mathematical analysis of an influenza epidemic model,formulation of different controlling strategies using optimal control and estimation of basic reproduction number

In this article, a deterministic model is formulated to perform a thorough investigation of the transmission dynamics of influenza. In particular, our model takes into account the effects of medication as well as hospitalization. An in-depth stability analysis of the model is performed, and it is subsequently shown that the model is locally, as well as globally asymptotically stable, when R₀ > 1. It is also shown that there exists a unique endemic equilibrium whenever R₀ > 1. After estimating the effective contact rate, we estimate the basic reproduction number, using both an ordinary least squares and generalized least squares methodology. We also estimated confidence intervals for the effective contact rate using parametric bootstrapping. Furthermore, we perform uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to recognize the impact of crucial model parameters on R₀. In addition, using ideas from the optimal control theory, optimal medication and hospitalization strategies are proposed to eliminate the disease.     

Sums of primes and quadratic linear recurrence sequences

Let u be a sequence of positive integers which grows essentially as a geometric progression. We give a criterion on u in terms of its distribution modulo d, d = 1, 2,..., under which the set of positive integers expressible by the sum of a prime number and an element of u has a positive lower density. This criterion is then checked for some second order linear recurrence sequences. It follows, for instance, that the set of positive integers of the form p ＋ [（2 ＋ √3）n], where p is a prime number and n is a positive integer, has a positive lower density. This generalizes a recent result of Enoch Lee. In passing, we show that the periods of linear recurrence sequences of order m modulo a prime number p cannot be ＂too small＂ for most prime numbers p.     

The development of children's understanding of mathematical patterns through mathematical activities

In this paper we report how children (aged 8) developed their mathematical understanding through number tasks based on the Fibonacci sequence (Bamboo numbers) used in the context of a Substantial Learning Environment (SLE), which is designed to be mathematically rich, have a clear purpose and give opportunities to utilise mathematical thinking. The flexible nature of the SLEs makes it possible for teachers and children to explore various mathematical patterns. To capture children's activities when working within SLEs, we make particular reference to Pegg and Tall's work in 2005, and consider a theoretical framework based on the SOLO taxonomy (Biggs and Collis 1982) and the developmental process of understanding mathematical concepts. It was found that the key progression to be made through learning using our Bamboo number-based SLEs is from Multi-structural to Relational levels. It was also suggested that it is difficult for many children to understand the structural aspects of number patterns.