Generalized Markov Models of Infectious Disease Spread: A Novel Framework for Developing Dynamic Health Policies

We propose a class of mathematical models for the transmission of infectious diseases in large populations. This class of models, which generalizes the existing discrete-time Markov chain models of infectious diseases, is compatible with efficient dynamic optimization techniques to assist real-time selection and modification of public health interventions in response to evolving epidemiological situations and changing availability of information and medical resources. While retaining the strength of existing classes of mathematical models in their ability to represent the within-host natural history of disease and between-host transmission dynamics, the proposed models possess two advantages over previous models: (1) these models can be used to generate optimal dynamic health policies for controlling spreads of infectious diseases, and (2) these models are able to approximate the spread of the disease in relatively large populations with a limited state space size and computation time.     

基于期权的树形供应链应急模型与仿真

在多级树形供应链网络环境下,基于实物期权策略并引入中断风险成本,建立了树形供应链应对中断风险的保护与应急模型,通过求解模型得到最优策略并进行了数值仿真分析.仿真结果表明该模型能够显著降低树形供应链系统的中断风险成本与系统中断时间,从而提高供应网络的鲁棒性.     

基于出行目的链的出行生成—分布组合模型分析

目前,我国城市轨道交通客流预测大多采用交通产生、吸引、出行分布、出行方式划分四阶段模型,其中出行生成与分布是方式划分和交通分配的前提,是模型重要的组成部分.在对传统的四阶段模型的分析基础上,结合非集计模型的优点,论文提出了基于出行目的链的出行生成—分布组合模型.模型充分考虑了居民出行链、出行目的等对客流预测的影响,在完善我国轨道交通客流预测理论和方法,提高预测精度等方面具有一定的理论价值和实际意义.     

消费者偏好驱动的制销供应链利润分配策略

从企业社会责任对消费者偏好的影响入手,运用博弈论的基本思想,对制销供应链中,制造商与分销商一次性博弈的定价和利润分配策略进行了研究,并在此基础上对不同情况下制销双方重复性博弈的均衡结果进行了讨论.结果表明:在两类制销供应链中,联盟定价都是制销双方一次性博弈的唯一纳什均衡结果,且在制销双方商定的利润分配因子的取值范围内双方联盟后所得的利润高于联盟之前;在两类制销供应链中,制造商与分销商坚持联盟定价对双方的长期利润都是最优的.     

RBNS的线性预测模型

传统的准备金方法都是基于聚合数据的,聚合数据是个体数据的汇总,它们丢失了许多有用信息,影响了准备金预测的准确性.本文提出了一个基于个体数据的线性预测模型,该模型不需要对数据的矩的具体形式进行假设,更不需要对数据的分布进行假设,而只需假设个体索赔数据的前两阶矩存在,具有适用范围广,简单易操作等特点.在文章的最后,通过随机模拟把提出的方法与著名的链梯法进行了对比,模拟结果显示,本文提出的方法是行之有效的.     

Dissociation and fractionation of heavy and light chains from IgG monoclonal antibodies

A basic method for dissociation and fractionation of monoclonal IgG heavy and light chain is described. It employs less noxious and hazardous reagents than the classical mercaptoethanol/propionic acid process and replaces size exclusion chromatography with cation exchange on a monolith to improve productivity. Significant scope remains to refine the conditions. The method can be applied to other disulfide bonded proteins with significant affinity for cation exchangers.     

Water chain encapsulated in carbon nanotube revealed by density functional theory

The noncovalent interactions between encapsulated water chains and single‐walled carbon nanotube (SWCNT) are studied using a self‐consistent charge density functional tight binding method with dispersion correction. The most interesting and important feature we observe is the diameter shrinking of CNTs when water chains are confined inside SWCNT. The diameter shrinking of CNTs can be suggested to the original of the van der Waals and H‐π interaction between water chains and CNTs. The calculated Raman spectra show the interactions between SWCNTs and water chains probably give rise to a kind of “mode hardening effect,” which agrees with the diameter shrinking of CNTs when water chains are confined inside SWCNT. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Int J Quantum Chem, 2011.