A class of multiple shrinkage estimators

Based on a sample of size n, we investigate a class of estimators of the mean of a p-variate normal distribution with independent components having unknown covariance. This class includes the James-Stein estimator and Lindley's estimator as special cases and was proposed by Stein. The mean squares error improves on that of the sample mean for p3. Simple approximations imations for this improvement are given for large n or p. Lindley's estimator improves on that of James and Stein if either n is large, and the coefficient of variation of is less than a certain increasing function of p, or if p is large. An adaptive estimator is given which for large samples always performs at least as well as these two estimators.     

Determination of the Thermal Degradation Kinetic Parameters of Carbon Fibre Reinforced Epoxy Using TG

In this work, a kinetic study on the thermal degradation of carbon fibre reinforced epoxy is presented. The degradation is investigated by means of dynamic thermogravimetric analysis (TG) in air and inert atmosphere at heating rates from 0.5 to 20°C min⁻¹ . Curves obtained by TG in air are quite different from those obtained in nitrogen. A three-step loss is observed during dynamic TG in air while mass loss proceeded as a two step process in nitrogen at fast heating rate. To elucidate this difference, a kinetic analysis is carried on. A kinetic model described by the Kissinger method or by the Ozawa method gives the kinetic parameters of the composite decomposition. Apparent activation energy calculated by Kissinger method in oxidative atmosphere for each step is between 40–50 kJ mol⁻¹ upper than E _a calculated in inert atmosphere. The thermo-oxidative degradation illustrated by Ozawa method shows a stable apparent activation energy (E _a ≈130 kJ mol⁻¹ ) even though the thermal degradation in nitrogen flow presents a maximum E _a for 15% mass loss (E _a ≈60 kJ mol⁻¹ ). This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Quenching of Flame Propagation with Heat Loss

The steady propagation of a planar laminar premixed flame, with a one-step exothermic reaction and linear heat loss, is studied. The corresponding travelling wave equations are solved numerically. The dependence of the flame velocity on the heat loss parameter is determined and compared with known results obtained by asymptotic expansion and other approximations. Due to the introduction of an ignition temperature the problem can be reduced to a bounded interval (of length L) and the graph of flame speed versus heat loss parameter can be parametrised by L. The numerical method is tested in the case of a step function nonlinearity when the exact solution of the differential equations can also be calculated.     

Bayes estimation with spherically symmetric,convex loss

Summary It is desired to estimate a parameter with the loss function of the formL(θ, a)=W(‖θ−a‖), where is convex, differentiable, and non-decreasing. With this structure a characterization of Bayes estimators is given. Also it is noted that if the sample space, , for the observation,X, is a complete separable metric space then a Bayes estimator exists.     

线性不对称损失时非正态分布过程均值优化

针对常见的两种非正态分布———梯形分布和三角分布，研究线性不对称质量损失时其过程均值的优化问题，建立了梯形分布在五种不同情况下线性不对称质量损失的数学模型，基于以上模型给出了线性不对称质量损失时梯形分布最优过程均值的确定方法；研究三角分布在四种不同情况下线性不对称质量损失的数学模型，并给出了线性不对称质量损失时三角分布最优过程均值的确定方法。最后，用实例验证本过程均值优化模型的有效性。实例表明，应用线性不对称损失函数，适当的改变过程均值，可以有效地降低产品的质量损失，通过调整工艺过程将获得最佳经济效益。     

An optimal co-reinsurance strategy

This article considers a co-reinsurance strategy that (1) protects insurance companies against catastrophic risks; (2) enables insurers to gather sufficient information about the different risk attitudes of reinsurers and diversify their reinsured risks; (3) enables insurers to create better risk-sharing profiles by balancing the risk tolerances of reinsurers; (4) has the benefit of allowing reinsurers to accumulate experience with risks with which they are unfamiliar; (5) reduces the overall direct cost of a reinsurance contract; (6) allows a government to back some insurance products, such as the terrorism insurance programs that were established in many countries after the September 11th terrorist attacks; and (7) reflects the practical reinsurance industry of some countries, such as Iran. Such a co-reinsurance strategy can be fully determined by estimating its parameters whenever three optimal criteria are satisfied and prior information about the unknown parameters is available. Two simulation-based studies have been conducted to demonstrate (1) the practical applications of our findings and (2) the possible impact of any type of dependency between the co-reinsurance’s parameters and the evaluated optimal co-reinsurance strategy.     

The research on temperature measurement based on polarization dependent loss

This paper analyzes the properties of reflected polarization dependent loss of apodized fiber Bragg gratings with temperature effective. We simulates reflected spectrum and polarization dependent loss of the apodized fiber Bragg gratings. The reflected spectrum and polarization dependent loss are measured under different temperatures. The analysis results show that reflected polarization dependent loss presents two peaks which shift an equal proportion to long wavelength with temperature increasing and have very good stability so we propose an idea that use polarization dependent loss as temperature sensor measurement parameters. The results show that the accuracy of measurement can be increased almost by one order of magnitude.     

Semi-empirical calculations for the ranges of fast ions in silicon

A semi-empirical method is proposed to calculate the ion ranges in energy region E?=?0.025–10?MeV/nucleon. The dependence of ion ranges on the projectile nuclear charge, mass and velocity is analysed. The calculations presented for ranges of ions with nuclear charges Z?=?2–10 in silicon are compared with SRIM results and experimental data.     

Dynamic models of segregation†

Some segregation results from the practices of organizations, some from specialized communication systems, some from correlation with a variable that is non‐random; and some results from the interplay of individual choices. This is an abstract study of the interactive dynamics of discriminatory individual choices. One model is a simulation in which individual members of two recognizable groups distribute themselves in neighborhoods defined by reference to their own locations. A second model is analytic and deals with compartmented space. A final section applies the analytics to ‘neighborhood tipping.’ The systemic effects are found to be overwhelming: there is no simple correspondence of individual incentive to collective results. Exaggerated separation and patterning result from the dynamics of movement. Inferences about individual motives can usually not be drawn from aggregate patterns. Some unexpected phenomena, like density and vacancy, are generated. A general theory of ‘tipping’ begins to emerge.     

Bayesian Estimation for the Order of INAR(q) Mo del

In this paper, we consider the problem of determining the order of INAR(q) model on the basis of the Bayesian estimation theory. The Bayesian es-timator for the order is given with respect to a squared-error loss function. The consistency of the estimator is discussed. The results of a simulation study for the estimation method are presented.