A semi-oriented radial measure for measuring the efficiency of decision making units with negative data,using DEA

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) is a nonparametric method for measuring the efficiency of a set of decision making units such as firms or public sector agencies, first introduced into the operational research and management science literature by Charnes, Cooper, and Rhodes (CCR) [Charnes, A., Cooper, W.W., Rhodes, E., 1978. Measuring the efficiency of decision making units. European Journal of Operational Research 2, 429–444]. The original DEA models were applicable only to technologies characterized by positive inputs/outputs. In subsequent literature there have been various approaches to enable DEA to deal with negative data.     

Support vector machines for default prediction of SMEs based on technology credit

In Korea, many forms of credit guarantees have been issued to fund small and medium enterprises (SMEs) with a high degree of growth potential in technology. However, a high default rate among funded SMEs has been reported. In order to effectively manage such governmental funds, it is important to develop an accurate scoring model for selecting promising SMEs. This paper provides a support vector machines (SVM) model to predict the default of funded SMEs, considering various input variables such as financial ratios, economic indicators, and technology evaluation factors. The results show that the accuracy performance of the SVM model is better than that of back-propagation neural networks (BPNs) and logistic regression. It is expected that the proposed model can be applied to a wide range of technology evaluation and loan or investment decisions for technology-based SMEs.     

An application of cooperative game among container terminals of one port

In this paper a two-stage game that involves three container terminals located in Karachi Port in Pakistan is discussed. In the first stage, the three terminals have to decide on whether to act as a singleton or to enter into a coalition with one or both of the other terminals. The decision at this stage should presumably be based on the predicted outcome for the second stage. The second stage is here modelled as a Bertrand game with one outside competitor, the coalition and the terminal in Karachi Port (if any) that has not joined the coalition. Furthermore, three partial and one grand coalition among the three terminals at Karachi Port are investigated. The concepts of “characteristic function” and “core” are used to analyse the stability of these coalitions and this revealed that one combination does not satisfy the superadditivity property of the characteristic function and can therefore be ruled out. The resulting payoffs (profits) of these coalitions are analysed on the basis of “core”. The best payoff for all players is in the case of a “grand coalition”. However, the real winner is the outsider (the terminal at the second port) which earns a better payoff without joining the coalition, and hence will play the role of the “orthogonal free-rider”.     

A comprehensive analytical approach for policy analysis of system dynamics models

Formal tools to link system dynamics model’s structure to the system modes of behavior have recently become available. In this paper, we aim to expand the use of these tools to perform the model’s policy analysis in a more structured and formal way than the exhaustive exploratory approaches used to date. We consider how a policy intervention (a parameter change) affects a particular behavior mode by affecting the gains of particular feedback loops as well as how it affects the presence of that mode in the variable of interest. The paper demonstrates the utility of considering both of these aspects since the analysis provides an assessment of the overall impact of a policy on a variable and explains why the impact occurs in terms of structural changes in the model. Particularly in the context of larger models, this method enables a much more efficient search for leverage policies, by ranking the influence of each model parameter without the need for multiple simulation experiments.     

Generalized linear fractional programming under interval uncertainty

Data in many real-life engineering and economical problems suffer from inexactness. Herein we assume that we are given some intervals in which the data can simultaneously and independently perturb. We consider a generalized linear fractional programming problem with interval data and present an efficient method for computing the range of optimal values. The method reduces the problem to solving from two to four real-valued generalized linear fractional programs, which can be computed in polynomial time using an appropriate interior point method solver.     

Evaluation of fuzzy regression models by fuzzy neural network

In this paper, a novel hybrid method based on fuzzy neural network for approximate fuzzy coefficients (parameters) of fuzzy linear and nonlinear regression models with fuzzy output and crisp inputs, is presented. Here a neural network is considered as a part of a large field called neural computing or soft computing. Moreover, in order to find the approximate parameters, a simple algorithm from the cost function of the fuzzy neural network is proposed. Finally, we illustrate our approach by some numerical examples.     

Accurate finite difference schemes for solving a 3D micro heat transfer model in an N-carrier system with the Neumann boundary condition in spherical coordinates

In this study, we propose a 3D generalized micro heat transfer model in an N-carrier system with the Neumann boundary condition in spherical coordinates, which can be applied to describe the non-equilibrium heating in biological cells. Two improved unconditionally stable Crank-Nicholson schemes are then presented for solving the generalized model. In particular, we delicately adjust the location of the interior grid point that is next to the boundary so that the Neumann boundary condition can be applied directly without discretization. As such, a second-order accurate finite difference scheme without using any fictitious grid points is obtained. The convergence rates of the numerical solution are tested by an example. Results show that the convergence rates of the present schemes are about 2.0 with respect to the spatial variable r, which improves the accuracy of the Crank-Nicholson scheme coupled with the conventional first-order approximation for the Neumann boundary condition.     

Epistemic irrelevance in credal nets: The case of imprecise Markov trees

We focus on credal nets, which are graphical models that generalise Bayesian nets to imprecise probability. We replace the notion of strong independence commonly used in credal nets with the weaker notion of epistemic irrelevance, which is arguably more suited for a behavioural theory of probability. Focusing on directed trees, we show how to combine the given local uncertainty models in the nodes of the graph into a global model, and we use this to construct and justify an exact message-passing algorithm that computes updated beliefs for a variable in the tree. The algorithm, which is linear in the number of nodes, is formulated entirely in terms of coherent lower previsions, and is shown to satisfy a number of rationality requirements. We supply examples of the algorithm’s operation, and report an application to on-line character recognition that illustrates the advantages of our approach for prediction. We comment on the perspectives, opened by the availability, for the first time, of a truly efficient algorithm based on epistemic irrelevance.     

Applying copula models to individual claim loss reserving methods

The estimation of loss reserves for incurred but not reported (IBNR) claims presents an important task for insurance companies to predict their liabilities. Recently, individual claim loss models have attracted a great deal of interest in the actuarial literature, which overcome some shortcomings of aggregated claim loss models. The dependence of the event times with the delays is a crucial issue for estimating the claim loss reserving. In this article, we propose to use semi-competing risks copula and semi-survival copula models to fit the dependence structure of the event times with delays in the individual claim loss model. A nonstandard two-step procedure is applied to our setting in which the associate parameter and one margin are estimated based on an ad hoc estimator of the other margin. The asymptotic properties of the estimators are established as well. A simulation study is carried out to evaluate the performance of the proposed methods.     

Obtaining the dividends-penalty identities by interpretation

The dividends-penalty identity is a relation between three functions: the discounted penalty function without dividends, the discounted penalty function if a barrier dividend strategy is applied, and the expected discounted dividends until ruin. The classical model of risk theory is modified in that the deterministic premiums are replaced by a compound Poisson process with exponential jumps. In this model, the dividends-penalty identity is new and can be derived by interpretation. Then the dividends-penalty identity in the classical model is obtained as a limit.