企业自主研发与合作创新的风险测度及组合优化

企业在整合内部创新要素进行自主研发的同时,也会寻求外部创新资源进行合作创新,当前同时从事多个R&D项目已成为常见的企业经营活动,如何在不确定条件下分析多个R&D项目投资的策略选择及风险优化,对于企业的长期发展具有重要意义。根据企业是否采取合作创新策略,可将其R&D项目分为自主研发与合作创新两类,以项目的研发成功率和投资收益率代表技术风险和市场风险,分别测度自主研发与合作创新项目的风险特性,并在此基础上构建企业R&D项目投资组合优化模型,以在自主研发与合作创新项目之间进行权衡取舍。结果表明,企业对于自主研发与合作创新项目投资组合的最优投资权重,主要取决于这两类组合的期望收益率、收益率方差、期望成功率以及两组合之间的协方差。企业可基于关键参数制定出最优的R&D项目投资组合选择策略,合理分配资金以达到风险最小化的投资目标。     

Neural network modeling of hydrological systems: A review of implementation techniques

This paper presents a review of procedural steps and implementation techniques used in the development of artificial intelligence models, generally referred to as artificial neural networks (ANNs), within the water resources domain. It focusses on identifying different areas wherein ANNs have found application thereby elucidating its advantages and disadvantages as well as various challenges encountered in its use. Results from this review provide useful insights into how the performance of ANNs can be improved and potential areas of application that are yet to be explored in hydrological modeling. Recommendations for Resource Managers

• Development of integrated and hybrid artificial intelligent tools is critical to achieving improved forecasts in hydrological modeling studies.

• Further research into comprehending the internal mechanisms of neural networks is required to obtain a practical meaning of each network component deployed to solve real‐world problems.

• More robust optimization techniques and tools like differential evolution, particle swarm optimization and deep neural nets, are yet to be fully explored in the water resources analysis, and should be given more attention to enhance neural networks aptitude for modeling complex and nonlinear hydrological processes.

     

Back to the future: A retrospective assessment of model‐based scenarios for the management of the shrimp fishery in French Guiana facing global change

While the number of models dedicated to predicting the consequences of alternative resource management strategies has increased, instances in which authors look back at past predictions to learn from discrepancies between these and observed developments are scarce. In the past decades, the French Guiana shrimp fishery has experienced shrimp market globalization and decreasing levels of shrimp recruitment due to environmental changes. In 2006, a bio‐economic model of this fishery was developed to simulate its possible responses to economic and environmental scenarios up to 2016. Here, we compare here these predictions to the observed trajectories. While the number of active vessels corresponds to that which was predicted, the estimated shrimp stock does not. Important driving factors had not been anticipated, including a general strike, natural disasters, and the end of the global financial crisis. These results show the importance of participative approaches involving stakeholders in the co‐construction and shared representation of scenarios. Recommendations for resource managers

• Effective fisheries resources management and a fortiori, the capacity of the fisheries to adapt to global change, requires understanding of both ecological and economics dynamics.
• The temporal trajectory of the trawling shrimp fisheries has been well monitored, and the decline of both stock and fleet is understood regarding ecological and economic changes: Changes in the environmental conditions of shrimp recruitment, and oil price increase and selling price decrease.
• However, our bio‐economic modeling work showed that, even with a good understanding of the dynamics explaining past trajectories, unpredictable events (strike, natural disasters…) have acted as other key driving factors altering the capacity of the model to represent possible futures.
• These results led us to recommend a better integration of the expertise of social and political scientists in developing models of bio‐economic systems to increase the quality of scenario predictions, and to argue for more participative approaches involving the stakeholders.

     

高中化学创新实验课程的设计与实施*

将学生所学的化学理论知识与生活实际和学科最前沿的研究热点相结合,开发并实施了 “氢氧化镁纳米材料的制备及其在处理重金属废水中的应用” 创新实验课程。该课程通过文献调研、方案设计、实验操作、结果与讨论以及论文撰写等环节,激发学生的创新潜能,系统培养学生的创新综合素质和责任意识,这有助于更好地达成化学学科核心素养。     

LaPO_4∶Ce,Tb纳米荧光粉末的合成及其在指纹无损显现中的应用

采用溶剂热法在水和乙二醇的混合溶剂中合成出了高质量的LaPO_4∶Ce,Tb纳米荧光粉末。然后通过透射电子显微镜(TEM)、粉末X射线衍射(XRD)、荧光光谱(FS)等表征手段分别对稀土纳米荧光粉末的微观形貌、晶体类型、荧光性能进行了表征,合成纳米荧光粉末的形貌为单分散的纳米棒,平均长度为700nm、平均直径为20nm,其晶体结构为单斜LaPO_4晶型,并且在254nm紫外光照射下能够产生较强的绿色荧光。最后将合成的纳米荧光粉末应用于光滑客体表面汗潜指纹的无损显现中,并详细考察了指纹显现的对比度、灵敏度、选择性、背景干扰等指标。实验结果表明,使用LaPO_4∶Ce,Tb纳米荧光粉末显现的指纹在254nm紫外光的激发下能够产生明亮的绿色荧光,指纹乳突纹线部位连贯清晰、细微特征反映明显,指纹与客体之间的对比反差强烈、客体产生的背景干扰较小,因此该显现方法具有较高的对比度、灵敏度和选择性。本显现方法具有操作方法简单、显现效果优良、适用范围广泛等优点。本研究的重要创新之处在于,经LaPO_4∶Ce,Tb纳米荧光粉末显现后的指纹还可以进行后续的DNA提取及检测,这是传统的指纹显现粉末所不能及的。本研究为指纹物证和生物物证这两大物证的同时利用提供了有益参考。     

非经典碳正离子简介

非经典碳正离子作为一种特殊的反应中间体,具有重要的理论和实际研究的意义。本文以碳正离子理论的发展为主线,以历史上非经典碳正离子(特别是降冰片基正离子)之争为中心,简要综述了Winstein、Brown和Olah三人的观点,并结合最新进展进行评述。此外,还对除降冰片基正离子之外的非经典碳正离子进行了适当的讨论。     

早期干预对极低出生体重早产儿智能发育的影响研究

目的 探讨早期干预对极低出生体重早产儿智能发育的影响,为极低出生体重早产儿的早期干预提供依据。方法 239 例极低出生体重早产儿为早产随访组,采用鲍秀兰早期教育资料制定的干预计划,进行系统干预,并与326 例失访的早产儿童以及与随访组相似的326 例正常儿童进行对照分析。采用Gesell 儿童发育量表等标准化工具进行发育评估。结果 早产随访组Gesell 儿童发育量表5 项均分、总发育商（developmental quotient,DQ）总分与早产失访组相比差异均有统计学差异（均P＜0.05）。结论 早期干预能显著促进极低出生体重早产儿的智能发育,提高患儿的生活质量。     

电化学生物传感器在环境监测中的应用及发展前景

简要介绍了电化学生物传感器的工作原理,重点论述了电化学生物传感器在环境监测领域的应用及其研究进展,主要包括水环境污染物和大气污染物的监测,以及农药残留的监测等.同时,对电化学生物传感器的发展方向及前景进行了展望.     

Rapid determination of catecholamines in urine samples by nonaqueous microchip electrophoresis with LIF detection

A method was developed for the rapid separation of catecholamines by nonaqueous microchip electrophoresis (NAMCE) with LIF detection, A homemade pump‐free negative pressure sampling device was used for rapid bias‐free sampling in NAMCE, the injection time was 0.5 s and the electrophoresis separation conditions were optimized. Under the optimized conditions, the samples were separated completely in <1 min. The average migration times of the epinephrine (E), dopamine (DA), and norepinephrine (NE) were 34.26, 43.81, and 50.07 s, with an RSD of 1.05, 1.26, and 0.89% (n = 7), respectively. The linearity of the method ranged from 0.0125 to 2.0 mg/L for E and 0.025～4.0 mg/L for DA and NE, with correlation coefficients ranging between 0.9978 and 0.9986. The detection limits of E, DA, and NE were 2.5, 5.0, and 5.0 μg/L, respectively. The recoveries of E, DA, and NE in spiked urine samples were between 86 and 103%, with RSDs of 4.5～6.8% (n = 5). The proposed NAMCE with LIF detection combined with a pump‐free negative pressure sampling device is a simple, inexpensive, energy efficient, miniaturized system that can be successfully applied for the determination of catecholamines in urine samples.     

Development of a sensitive and reliable high performance liquid chromatography method with fluorescence detection for high-throughput analysis of multi-class mycotoxins in Coix seed

As an edible and medicinal plant, Coix seed is readily contaminated by more than one group of mycotoxins resulting in potential risk to human health. A reliable and sensitive method has been developed to determine seven mycotoxins (aflatoxins B₁, B₂, G₁, G₂, zearalenone, α-zearalenol, and β-zearalenol) simultaneously in 10 batches of Coix seed marketed in China. The method is based on a rapid ultrasound-assisted solid–liquid extraction (USLE) using methanol/water (80/20) followed by immunoaffinity column (IAC) clean-up, on-line photochemical derivatization (PCD), and high performance liquid chromatography coupled with fluorescence detection (HPLC-FLD). Careful optimization of extraction, clean-up, separation and detection conditions was accomplished to increase sample throughput and to attain rapid separation and sensitive detection. Method validation was performed by analyzing samples spiked at three different concentrations for the seven mycotoxins. Recoveries were from 73.5% to 107.3%, with relative standard deviations (RSDs) lower than 7.7%. The intra- and inter-day precisions, expressed as RSDs, were lower than 4% for all studied analytes. Limits of detection and quantification ranged from 0.01 to 50.2 μg kg⁻¹, and from 0.04 to 125.5 μg kg⁻¹, respectively, which were below the tolerance levels for mycotoxins set by the European Union. Samples that tested positive were further analyzed by HPLC tandem electrospray ionization mass spectrometry for confirmatory purposes. This is the first application of USLE-IAC-HPLC-PCD-FLD for detecting the occurrence of multi-class mycotoxins in Coix seed.