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111.
For about thirty years, time series models with time-dependent coefficients have sometimes been considered as an alternative
to models with constant coefficients or non-linear models. Analysis based on models with time-dependent models has long suffered
from the absence of an asymptotic theory except in very special cases. The purpose of this paper is to provide such a theory
without using a locally stationary spectral representation and time rescaling. We consider autoregressive-moving average (ARMA)
models with time-dependent coefficients and a heteroscedastic innovation process. The coefficients and the innovation variance
are deterministic functions of time which depend on a finite number of parameters. These parameters are estimated by maximising
the Gaussian likelihood function. Deriving conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality and obtaining the asymptotic
covariance matrix are done using some assumptions on the functions of time in order to attenuate non-stationarity, mild assumptions
for the distribution of the innovations, and also a kind of mixing condition. Theorems from the theory of martingales and
mixtingales are used. Some simulation results are given and both theoretical and practical examples are treated.
Received 2004; Final version 23 December 2004 相似文献
112.
Moments of claims in a Markovian environment 总被引:1,自引:1,他引:0
This paper considers discounted aggregate claims when the claim rates and sizes fluctuate according to the state of the risk business. We provide a system of differential equations for the Laplace–Stieltjes transform of the distribution of discounted aggregate claims under this assumption. Using the differential equations, we present the first two moments of discounted aggregate claims in a Markovian environment. We also derive simple expressions for the moments of discounted aggregate claims when the Markovian environment has two states. Numerical examples are illustrated when the claim sizes are specified. 相似文献
113.
Wolfgang Stadje 《Journal of Theoretical Probability》1998,11(1):197-208
For increasing sequences of real numbers we consider two types of asymptotic behavior that remind of the defining property of a (homogeneous) Poisson process according to which the numbers of points in disjoint intervals are independent and follow Poisson distributions with specified parameters. We prove that almost all paths of a Poisson process show this asymptotic behavior, and characterize the Poisson process by these properties. Further we discuss the connection to equidistribution notions. 相似文献
114.
The method of condensed matter physics is applied to reason out the problem of Na transport through a biological membrane.
A similiarity of gating process in Na ion channel to the superionic phase transition is discussed. A possible microscopic
mechanism is suggested. 相似文献
115.
本文用数字散斑相关方法测量了五种不同幂硬化指数韧性金属材料(铝和铜),双边裂纹尖端细观区域内应变场.对所得结果用韧性损伤模型进行了分析.在此法中以金属自然表面结构为散斑场,不同加载状态的散斑场进行比较,得到相对变形与应变.图象之间相关性 C 是变形参数或是位移及其导数的泛函.使其相关性 C 取最大值的试凑变形即为其真实变形场.这一方法在细观测量中应用得到满意的结果. 相似文献
116.
沉淀法制备CeO2超微粉末 总被引:14,自引:3,他引:11
采用过氧化氢--氨水沉淀法在较低温度下制备CeO2超微粉末。试验表明,溶液起始浓度及焙烧温度以形成粉素晶体粒径有一定影响。焙烧温度在220-850℃,所得CeO2微粉均为立方晶系,透射电测试表明,粒子基本呈球形,晶体平均粒径随焙烧温度升高而增大。控制适当条件,可制得粒径范围在5-13nm,比表面积111.8m^2/g的CeO2超微粉末。 相似文献
117.
YANG Yuanhong 《Chinese Journal of Lasers》1997,6(6):518-522
NovelAlDigitalSchemeforOpenLoopFiberOpticGyroscopesYANGYuanhong(The5thResearchDivisionofBeijingUniversityofAeronauts&Astronau... 相似文献
118.
Klaus Ziegler 《Journal of multivariate analysis》1997,62(2):233-272
Functional central limit theorems for triangular arrays of rowwise independent stochastic processes are established by a method replacing tail probabilities by expectations throughout. The main tool is a maximal inequality based on a preliminary version proved by P. Gaenssler and Th. Schlumprecht. Its essential refinement used here is achieved by an additional inequality due to M. Ledoux and M. Talagrand. The entropy condition emerging in our theorems was introduced by K. S. Alexander, whose functional central limit theorem for so-calledmeasure-like processeswill be also regained. Applications concern, in particular, so-calledrandom measure processeswhich include function-indexed empirical processes and partial-sum processes (with random or fixed locations). In this context, we obtain generalizations of results due to K. S. Alexander, M. A. Arcones, P. Gaenssler, and K. Ziegler. Further examples include nonparametric regression and intensity estimation for spatial Poisson processes. 相似文献
119.
Richard F. Serfozo 《Queueing Systems》1989,5(1-3):5-36
A Markovian network process describes the movement of discrete units among a set of nodes that process the units. There is considerable knowledge of such networks, often called queueing networks, in which the nodes operate independently and the routes of the units are independent. The focus of this study, in contrast, is on networks with dependent nodes and routings. Examples of dependencies are parallel processing across several nodes, blocking of transitions because of capacity constraints on nodes, alternate routing of units to avoid congestion, and accelerating or decelerating the processing rate at a node depending on downstream congestion. We introduce a general network process representing the numbers of units at the nodes and derive its equilibrium distribution. This distribution takes the form of a product of functions of vectors in which the arguments of the functions satisfy an interchangeability property. This new type of distribution may apply to other multi-variate processes as well. A basic idea in our approach is a linking of certain micro-level balance properties of the network routing to the processing rates at the nodes. The link is via routing-balance partitions of nodes that are inherent in any network. A byproduct of this approach is a general characterization of blocking of transitions without the restriction that the process is reversible, which had been a standard assumption. We also give necessary and sufficient conditions under which a unit moving in the network sees a time average for the unmoved units (called the MUSTA property). Finally, we discuss when certain flows between nodes in an open network are Poisson processes.This research was sponsored in part by Air Force Office of Scientific Research contract 84-0367. 相似文献
120.
Harry Joe 《Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics》1989,41(4):683-697
For a multivariate density f with respect to Lebesgue measure , the estimation of % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% Waa8qaaeaacaWGkbGaaiikaiaadAgacaGGPaGaamOzaiaadsgacqaH% 8oqBaSqabeqaniabgUIiYdaaaa!4404!\[\int {J(f)fd\mu } \], and in particular % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% Waa8qaaeaacaWGMbWaaWbaaSqabeaacaaIYaaaaOGaamizaiabeY7a% TbWcbeqab0Gaey4kIipaaaa!41E4!\[\int {f^2 d\mu } \] and % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% Waa8qaaeaacaWGMbGaciiBaiaac+gacaGGNbGaamOzaiaadsgacqaH% 8oqBaSqabeqaniabgUIiYdaaaa!44AC!\[\int {f\log fd\mu } \], is studied. These two particular functionals are important in a number of contexts. Asymptotic bias and variance terms are obtained for the estimators % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% WaaybyaeqaleqabaGaey4jIKnaneaacaWGjbaaaOGaeyypa0Zaa8qa% aeaacaWGkbGaaiikamaawagabeWcbeqaaiabgEIizdqdbaGaamOzaa% aakiaacMcacaWGKbGaamOramaaBaaaleaacaWGobaabeaaaeqabeqd% cqGHRiI8aaaa!4994!\[\mathop I\limits^ \wedge = \int {J(\mathop f\limits^ \wedge )dF_N } \] and % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% WaaybyaeqaleqabaGaeSipIOdaneaacaWGjbaaaOGaeyypa0Zaa8qa% aeaacaWGkbGaaiikamaawagabeWcbeqaaiabgEIizdqdbaGaamOzaa% aakiaacMcadaGfGbqabSqabeaacqGHNis2a0qaaiaadAgaaaGccaWG% KbGaeqiVd0galeqabeqdcqGHRiI8aaaa!4C40!\[\mathop I\limits^ \sim = \int {J(\mathop f\limits^ \wedge )\mathop f\limits^ \wedge d\mu } \], where % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% WaaybyaeqaleqabaGaey4jIKnaneaacaWGMbaaaaaa!3E9C!\[{\mathop f\limits^ \wedge }\] is a kernel density estimate of f and F
n
is the empirical distribution function based on the random sample X
1
,..., X
n
from f. For the two functionalsmentioned above, a first order bias term for Î can be made zero by appropriate choices of non-unimodal kernels. Suggestions for the choice of bandwidth are given; for % MathType!MTEF!2!1!+-% feaafeart1ev1aaatCvAUfeBSjuyZL2yd9gzLbvyNv2CaerbuLwBLn% hiov2DGi1BTfMBaeXafv3ySLgzGmvETj2BSbqefm0B1jxALjhiov2D% aebbfv3ySLgzGueE0jxyaibaiiYdd9qrFfea0dXdf9vqai-hEir8Ve% ea0de9qq-hbrpepeea0db9q8as0-LqLs-Jirpepeea0-as0Fb9pgea% 0lrP0xe9Fve9Fve9qapdbaqaaeGacaGaaiaabeqaamaabaabcaGcba% WaaybyaeqaleqabaGaey4jIKnaneaacaWGjbaaaOGaeyypa0Zaa8qa% aeaadaGfGbqabSqabeaacqGHNis2a0qaaiaadAgaaaGccaWGKbGaam% OramaaBaaaleaacaWGobaabeaaaeqabeqdcqGHRiI8aaaa!476C!\[\mathop I\limits^ \wedge = \int {\mathop f\limits^ \wedge dF_N } \], a study of optimal bandwidth is possible.This research was supported by an NSERC Grant and a UBC Killam Research Fellowship. 相似文献