GH分布族下资产收益率分布拟合优度比较——基于中国证券指数高频数据的实证研究

资产收益率分布假设对期权定价、对冲,风险度量和组合资产优化的结果有着重要影响.但由于资产收益率的"程式化性质",经典正态分布假设不能很好拟合实际收益率分布.广义双曲线分布,作为子分布及极限分布非常丰富的分布族,在资产收益率分布拟合中已取得良好效果.在讨论第三类修正贝塞尔函数和广义逆高斯分布性质基础上,借助于正态均值-方差混合理论,得到广义双曲线分布及其极限分布.在McNeil,Frey和Embrechts(2005)算法框架内,以及WenBo Hu(2005)算法改进基础上,对参数估计的算法做了实质性改进:用两个重要参数χ和ψ的线性关系,代替了一个包含第三类修正贝塞尔函数的方程,避免了对该方程数值求解.在实证部分,选择了3个主要指数,利用GH分布的两个子分布和两个极限分布对过滤后的指数收益率进行拟合,并对它们的拟合优度和收敛速度做了比较.     

COMPACT DIFFERENCE SCHEMES FOR THE DIFFUSION AND SCHRODINGER EQUATIONS. APPROXIMATION,STABILITY, CONVERGENCE,EFFECTIVENESS, MONOTONY

Various compact difference schemes （both old and new, explicit and implicit, one-level and two-level）, which approximate the diffusion equation and SchrSdinger equation with periodical boundary conditions are constructed by means of the general approach. The results of numerical experiments for various initial data and right hand side are presented. We evaluate the real order of their convergence, as well as their stability, effectiveness, and various kinds of monotony. The optimal Courant number depends on the number of grid knots and on the smoothness of solutions. The competition of various schemes should be organized for the fixed number of arithmetic operations, which are necessary for numerical integration of a given Cauchy problem. This approach to the construction of compact schemes can be developed for numerical solution of various problems of mathematical physics.     

澳门博采收入增长影响因素分析

通过对2005年1月至2013年7月份的澳门博采毛收入数据进行季节分析,显示澳门博采毛收入有显著的中国节假日特征.其次分析入境澳门旅客数、酒店住客数、劳动力参与率、消费指数以及突发事件是否是澳门博采毛收入迅速增长的原因,通过计量经济学分析,得到酒店住客数、劳动力参与率、中国的节假日三个因素对澳门博采毛收入有显著的正向影响关系,而2008年世界金融危机对博采毛收入有显著的负的影响.最后结合实际给出了提高博采收入的政策建议.     

威布尔分布族刻度参数的经验Bayes检验函数的收敛速度

本文研究了在"加权线性损失"下,威布尔分布族刻度参数经验Bayes (EB)检验问题.利用概率密度函数的递归核估计,构造了刻度参数的经验Bayes检验函数,并获得了它的收敛速度,在适当的条件下,收敛速度的阶可任意接近O(n^-1),推广了文献的结果.最后给出一个有关本文主要结果的例子.     

带有二元连接函数的半参数模型

提出了一种新的带有二元连接函数的广义半参数模型,即二元连接模型(简称为BLM).使用轮廓似然方法估计模型的参数和非参数部分,并给出了计算算法.证明了所得的未知参数的估计量为n~(1/2)-相合,渐近正态且具有渐近最小方差,给出了实际数据分析和模拟研究,最终采用局部功效方法来检验非参数部分的线性性.     

On the effectiveness of a generalization of Miller’s primality theorem

Berrizbeitia and Olivieri showed in a recent paper that, for any integer r$r$, the notion of ω$\omega$-prime to base a$a$ leads to a primality test for numbers n≡1$n\equiv 1$ mod r$r$, that under the Extended Riemann Hypothesis (ERH) runs in polynomial time. They showed that the complexity of their test is at most the complexity of the Miller primality test (MPT), which is O((logn)^4+o(1))$O\left({(logn)}^{4+o\left(1\right)}\right)$. They conjectured that their test is more effective than the MPT if r$r$ is large.     

Kaplansky’s “infinite abelian groups” and its two test problems

Abstract

Kaplansky’s Infinite Abelian Groups, originally published in 1954, has recently been republished. In recognition of its continuing significance after 65?years, the authors illustrate some important ideas and techniques described in the book. In particular, a class of groups is defined for which there are affirmative answers to the author’s two famous “Test Problems.”     

Nonparametric estimation of location parameter after a preliminary test on regression in the multivariate case

For a simple multivariate regression model, nonparametric estimation of the (vector of) intercept following a preliminary test on the regression vector is considered. Along with the asymptotic distribution of these estimators, their asymptotic bias and dispersion matrices are studied and allied efficiency results are presented.     

估计感度分布中位数的两阶段优化序贯试验设计方法研究

感度试验在爆炸科学领域有非常广泛的应用,其中位数是含能材料的一个关键性能指标.高效估计感度分布中位数是实际工程应用中的重要问题.文章提出一种两阶段的优化序贯试验设计方法来估计感度分布的中位数,并将正交设计与两阶段优化序贯试验设计方法相结合给出了筛选影响含能材料安定性重要因子的试验设计方法.广泛的模拟比较验证了所提方法在小样本情况下可以获得感度分布中位数的准确估计,并且对模型假设和初始参数猜测具有一定的稳健性.当因子效应不是太小的时候,因子筛选方法可以准确地筛选出有显著影响的因子.     

A note on the minimum complementary energy theorem

In this paper we propose a very simple and clear method whichcan prove that the minimum complementary energy theorem isequivalent to the condition of single-valued displacementsand displacement boundary condition of the deformable body.