Estimating parameters of a log-linear intensity for a repairable system

The log-linear intensity is often used in survival analysis of technical products with rapid deterioration. It is an extremely important intensity to characterize the probabilistic behavior of a large number of real phenomena. In this paper we develop statistical methods for an alternating repair model using a log-linear intensity. The maximum likelihood estimator is considered for determining the estimations of the model parameters. The distribution of the life times after perfect repairs and imperfect repairs are obtained. The estimation of the Fisher information matrix is given. Simultaneous confidence regions based on the likelihood ratio statistics are developed for the estimators of the parameters. The proposed model is demonstrated using the well known data on airplane air-conditioning failures from Plane 7.     

Channel Quality-Based Optimal Status Update for Information Freshness in Internet of Things

This paper investigates the status updating policy for information freshness in Internet of things (IoT) systems, where the channel quality is fed back to the sensor at the beginning of each time slot. Based on the channel quality, we aim to strike a balance between the information freshness and the update cost by minimizing the weighted sum of the age of information (AoI) and the energy consumption. The optimal status updating problem is formulated as a Markov decision process (MDP), and the structure of the optimal updating policy is investigated. We prove that, given the channel quality, the optimal policy is of a threshold type with respect to the AoI. In particular, the sensor remains idle when the AoI is smaller than the threshold, while the sensor transmits the update packet when the AoI is greater than the threshold. Moreover, the threshold is proven to be a non-increasing function of channel state. A numerical-based algorithm for efficiently computing the optimal thresholds is proposed for a special case where the channel is quantized into two states. Simulation results show that our proposed policy performs better than two baseline policies.     

轻度铅中毒对儿童微量元素及骨龄的影响

为探讨儿童轻度铅中毒对微量元素及骨龄的影响,采用钨舟原子化法和原子吸收光谱法分别检测了33例轻度铅中毒患儿血铅及微量元素水平,用X摄片进行骨龄测定,并进行了相关分析。结果表明,轻度铅中毒患儿微量元素钙、铁、锌降低,骨龄发育落后,血铅含量与钙、铁、锌水平呈负相关。提示轻度铅中毒使儿童骨龄落后,可能与微量元素间的失衡有关。     

Numerical analysis to discontinuous Galerkin methods for the age structured population model of marine invertebrates

In this article we consider the age structured population growth model of marine invertebrates. The problem is a nonlinear coupled system of the age‐density distribution of sessile adults and the abundance of larvae. We propose the semidiscrete and fully‐discrete discontinuous Galerkin schemes to the nonlinear problem. The DG method is well suited to approximate the local behavior of the problem and to easily take the locally refined meshes with hanging nodes adaptively. The simple communication pattern between elements makes the DG method ideal for parallel computation. The global existence of the approximation solution is proved for the nonlinear approximation system by using the broken Sobolev spaces and the Schauder's fixed point theorem, and error estimates are obtained for both the semidiscrete scheme and the fully‐discrete scheme. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Numer Methods Partial Differential Eq, 2009     

OPTIMAL CHOICE BETWEEN EVEN‐ AND UNEVEN‐AGED FORESTRY

Abstract Existing optimal rotation models include even‐aged management exogenously into the model structure. As an economic model, this Faustmann framework is restrictive, and a more general model should not include any such preconditions. Even‐aged management should follow endogenously as an optimal solution if it proves out to be superior to other systems, such as uneven‐aged management. Without such a general model, the economically optimal choice between even‐aged and uneven‐aged forestry remains somewhat arbitrary. This study specifies such a model and shows how even‐aged management follows endogenously and reveals what factors work in favor of each management alternative. Numerical analysis shows that even‐ and uneven‐aged systems may represent locally optimal solutions and may yield equal economic outcomes. Instead of the usual comparative statics results of the Faustmann model, changes in the rate of discount, timber price, or planting cost may imply that the optimal solution shifts from even‐ to uneven‐aged management.     

A critique of fractional age assumptions

Published mortality tables are usually calibrated to show the survival function of the age at death distribution at exact integer ages. Actuaries make fractional age assumptions when valuing payments that are not restricted to integer ages. A fractional age assumption is essentially an interpolation between integer age values which are accepted as given.Three fractional age assumptions have been widely used by actuaries. These are the uniform distribution of death (UDD) assumption, the constant force assumption and the hyperbolic or Balducci assumption. Under all three assumptions, the interpolated values of the survival function between two consecutive ages depend only on the survival function at those ages. While this has the advantage of simplicity, all three assumptions result in force of mortality and probability density functions with implausible discontinuities at integer ages.In this paper, we examine some families of fractional age assumptions that can be used to correct this problem. To help in choosing specific fractional age assumptions and in comparing different sets of assumptions, we present an optimality criterion based on the length of the probability density function over the range of the mortality table.     

Interactive effects of age and gender on levels of toxic and potentially toxic metals in children hair in different urban environments

Children growth and development may be affected by metal exposure. The objective of the present study was to investigate the interactive effects of age and gender on children hair toxic metal levels in urban environment of two Russian cities. A total of 2021 children living in Moscow and Novosibirsk aged 1–18 years old were examined. Hair Al, As, Cd, Hg, Ni, Pb and Sn levels were assessed using inductively-coupled plasma mass-spectrometry in dynamic reaction cell mode. Children from Novosibirsk were characterised by higher hair Al (37%), As (385%), Cd (127%), Hg (11%), Ni (23%), Pb (72%) and Sn (25%) in comparison to Moscow values. In the general cohort, boys had higher Al (13%), As (51%), Cd (65%), Pb (63%) and Sn (18%) levels, whereas hair Ni was higher in girls (17%). Further analysis demonstrated age-specific gender differences. In particular, only hair Ni and Cd levels were higher in male toddlers and pre-schoolers from Novosibirsk as compared to females. No gender difference was detected in Moscow. Maximal gender differences in hair metal levels were detected in adolescents for both locations. International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry (IUPAC) reference values for all groups were also calculated. The overall reference limits for the studied children population were Al (1.335–3.340 µg/g), As (0.021–0.384 µg/g), Cd (0.000–1.389 µg/g), Hg (0.024–0.722 µg/g), Ni (0.076–0.701 µg/g), Pb (0.050–1.490 µg/g) and Sn (0.070–1.026 µg/g). Two-way ANOVA demonstrated significant effects of age, gender and age*gender interaction on hair metals in both cities. At the same time, the age-specific changes in hair metal content were more expressed in children from Novosibirsk, being exposed to higher metal pollution. The obtained data demonstrate that age, gender as well as the particular rate of pollution in each location should be taken into account during interpretation of hair test results.     

A particle size distribution analysis of used HPLC column packing material

Summary Particle size distribution analysis and scanning electron microscopy (SEM) were carried out on eight used HPLC columns containing either irregular silica based, spherical silica based or spherical polymer based packing material. Particle size distributions of the used irregular silica based columns were at least bimodat at the outlet ends and either biomodal or log-normal at the inlet ends with regular progressions between the two extremes through the column. A new ODS-3 column showed log-normal size distributions from the inlet to the outlet ends. Spherical silica based column particle size distributions showed distinct shoulders on large central distribution peaks in most column sections with various degrees of shoulder erosion. The spherical resin based column showed a broader inlet particle size distribution progressing to a very narrow outlet distribution. SEMs of both irregular and spherical silica based columns revealed a larger number of undersized particles and debris at the outlet than inlet ends which could have resulted from stationary phase degradation, since this was not seen in the new ODS-3 column. While several SEMs of the spherical silica based columns revealed hollow spheres and twins, the spherical resin based column packing showed stress fractures or wrinkle lines resulting from use or dehydration.Presented in part as a poster at the HPLC '92, 16^th Symposium on CLC, Baltimore, MD, USA.