On the asymptotic equilibrium of a population system with migration

In the analysis of economic and social issues of a country (or any larger or smaller socio-economic unit) the demographic dynamics of the considered population often play a crucial role. Very current emergencies in this respect are e.g. ageing, longevity risk, state-run healthcare etc. Over the last decade migration between EU countries also became an important issue, and in recent years the uncontrolled migration from non-EU countries is also a major concern. Therefore, the better theoretical understanding of the evolutionary mechanism of age-classified populations interacting via migration, is a timely modelling-methodological task. This paper is a preliminary demographic methodological contribution to a further research in support of socio-economic modelling and decision making concerning migration issues.It is known that in the framework of the classical age-specific Leslie model, under simple demographic conditions, a closed population in the long term tends to an equilibrium age distribution. As the main theoretical result of the paper, a similar convergence is proved for a system of several populations with migration between them, and this long-term behaviour (convergence theorem) is extended to systems of sex-structured populations. Based on the latter model, medium term projections are also analysed concerning the effect of migration among countries on the development of the old-age dependency ratio (the proportion of pensioner age classes to active ones), which is an aggregate scalar indicator of ageing, a major concern in most industrialized countries. Illustrative simulation analysis is carried out with data from three European countries.     

Optimal enlistment age: A cost–benefit analysis and some simulations

Enlistment at the earliest viable age maximizes the country’s wartime army size and thereby the country’s attack-deterrence capacity. Injuries and death generate a loss of quantity and quality of life that reduces the benefit from early-age enlistment. The benefit from any age of recruitment is also affected by the rise and decline of the individual’s military performance and civilian productivity and by the changes in the individual’s adjustment costs over his lifecycle. The simulations of an optimization model incorporating these cost and benefit elements suggest that if the intensity of the rise and decline of the individual’s military performance is sufficiently larger than the intensity of the rise and decline of his civilian productivity, there exists an interior optimal enlistment age that is greater than the commonly practiced 18. In such a case, most of the simulation results are closely scattered around 21 despite large parameter changes.     

宁波三山滩涂珠带拟蟹守螺种群的年龄组成与生长

报道了宁波沿海珠带拟蟹守螺种群的年龄组成与生长情况．自然种群的珠带拟蟹守螺年龄组成以1龄和2龄占优势，壳高与壳宽、壳口高呈直线相关，壳高与体重呈幂函数相关．珠带拟蟹守螺壳高H)与壳宽(B)、壳口高(L)、体重(W)之间的回归关系为B=0．3325H 0．4831(r=0．9195)、L=0．2459H 1．3738(r=0．9224)、W=0．0002H^2.687(r=0．9781)．结果表明，宁波沿海珠带拟蟹守螺的生长完全可以用壳高来表示．     

Fission-track analysis of meteorites: Dating of the Marjalahti pallasite

The results of the Marjalahti pallasite fission-track age determination are presented. Thorough examination of fossil tracks in the phosphate (whitlockite) crystals coupled with U-content determination in whitlockites can make it possible to estimate the contributions of all possible track sources to the total track density and to calculate a model fission-track age.

It is found that whitlockite crystals of the Marjalahti pallasite contain fossil tracks due to galactic cosmic rays (VH, VVH nuclei); fission of U and Th induced by cosmic rays; spontaneous fission of ²³⁸U; and spontaneous fission of extinct, short-lived ²⁴⁴Pu present in significant quantities in the early solar system.

A great track density attributed to the extinct ²⁴⁴Pu testifies to the high fission-track age. The model fission-track ages of (4.31±0.02)×10⁹ yr for the Marjalahti pallasite are calculated. Petrographic studies allow us to interpret the fission-track age as the time of the last shock/thermal event in the cosmic history of the pallasite.     

Oxidation Monitoring by Fluorescence Spectroscopy Reveals the Age of Fingermarks

No forensic method exists that can reliably estimate the age of fingermarks found at a crime scene. Information on time passed since fingermark deposition is desired as it can be used to distinguish between crime related and unrelated fingermarks and to support or refute statements made by the fingermark donors. We introduce a non‐contact method that can estimate the age of fingermarks. Fingermarks were approached as protein–lipid mixtures and an age‐estimation model was build based on the expected protein and lipid oxidation reactions. Two measures of oxidation are required from the fingermark to estimate its age: 1) the relative amount of fluorescent oxidation products 2) the rate at which these products are formed. Fluorescence spectroscopy was used to obtain these measures. We tested the method on 44 fingermarks and were able to estimate the age of 55 % of the male fingermarks, up to three weeks old with an uncertainty of 1.9 days.     

21世纪诺贝尔化学奖得主高龄化现象研究及对教育的启示

21世纪诺贝尔化学奖获奖者呈现出高龄化现象,统计分析发现诺贝尔化学奖得主获奖年龄呈上升趋势。对20世纪与21世纪诺贝尔化学奖得主取得主要学术成果的年龄进行统计分析,发现杰出化学家取得主要学术成果的年龄并没有发生变化。对典型高龄诺奖得主进行案例分析,发现诺奖认可成果时间的延长才是造成21世纪诺贝尔化学奖高龄化现象的直接原因,并试图从中总结对基础教育改革的一些启示。     

血清CEA、CA19-9检测诊断老年胃癌的价值探讨

目的对应用血清CEA、CA19-9联合检测方式对患有胃癌疾病的老年患者的病情实施诊断的临床价值进行研究。方法选择广丰县中医院收治的患有胃癌疾病和胃部良性疾病的老年患者各60例,再抽取同期接受健康体检的健康老年人资料60例,分别将其定义为研究1组、研究2组、对照组。采用化学发光法对三组研究对象的血清CEA、CA19-9水平进行测定,对比分析检测结果和两项指标的阳性率。结果研究1组的血清CEA、CA19-9水平明显高于对照组和研究2组,组间数据比较差异显著(P0.05);研究2组的血清CEA、CA19-9水平明显高于对照组,组间数据比较差异显著(P0.05)。研究1组的CEA、CA19-9水平检测阳性人数明显多于对照组和研究2组,组间数据比较差异显著(P0.05);研究2组的CEA、CA19-9水平检测阳性人数明显多于对照组,组间数据比较差异显著(P0.05)。结论患有胃癌疾病的老年患者的血清CEA、CA19-9水平会异常升高,临床上可以将其作为老年胃癌疾病诊断的重要依据。     

A three-dimensional Markov field approach for the analysis of atomic clustering in atom probe data

Solute clustering is increasingly recognised as a significant characteristic within certain material systems that can be tailored to the optimization of bulk properties and performance. Atom probe tomography (APT) is emerging as a powerful tool for the detection of these nanoscale features; however, complementary to experiment, precise and efficient characterization algorithms are required to identify and characterise these nanoclusters within the potentially massive three-dimensional atomistic APT datasets. In this study, a new three-dimensional Markov field (3DMF) cluster identification algorithm is proposed. The algorithm is based upon an analysis of the direct atomic neighbourhood surrounding each atom, and the only input parameter required utilises known crystallographic properties of the system. Further, an array of statistical approaches has been developed and applied with respect to the results generated by the 3DMF algorithm including: an S _N statistic, a two-tailed z-test, a difference measure, the χ² test, and a direct evaluation of the Warren–Cowley parameter for short-range ordering. Finally, the methodologies have been applied to the characterization of the nanostructural evolution of an Al-1.1Cu-0.5Mg (at.%) alloy subjected to a variety of heat treatments.     

Ultra low-level tritium measurement using electrolytic enrichment and LSC†

We describe an advanced methodology for low-level tritium measurement in regard to calibration, electrolytic tritium enrichment, liquid scintillation counting (LSC) measurement, and prevention of sample contamination. Details are given on enrichment parameters and electrode processes for optimisation of enrichment reproducibility and on optimisation of LSC stability. Intercomparison results demonstrate high accuracy of the tritium measurement system. The use of accurate tritium data for groundwater dating in the southern hemisphere is demonstrated with data from several groundwater systems of New Zealand.     

On Dating of Old Groundwater

Groundwater dating is known to be determination of the residence time of groundwater. This residence time is commonly defined as the length of time the water has been isolated from the atmosphere. The paper reviews isotope methods available for dating of old groundwater. Their residence time is supposed to be far outside the range of C-14 dating which is about 50000 years. These dating methods are based on the radioactive decay of long-lived radionuclides produced by interaction of cosmic radiation with gases in the atmosphere (Kr-81, Cl-36, I-129), on the accumulation of noble gases suo-surface produced by nuclear reactions including radioactive decay of U/Th series radionuclides (He-4, He-3), and on the disequilibrium between uranium isotopes due to water-rock interaction and radioactive decay (U-234, U-238). The paper presents the principles of these dating methods, refers to recent case studies and summarizes problem areas for further development and application of these methods.