具有吸收状态的马尔可夫链在企业经营状况宏观控制中的应用

本文对企业经营状况建立了一个具有吸收状态的马尔可夫链的数学模型,列举并分析了这种马氏链的一些性状,结合实际经济现象提出了若干具体问题并给出了相应的解决方法     

Analysis and Forecast on the Car Market of Our Country

§１．　ＦｏｒｅｃａｓｔａｂｏｕｔｔｈｅＣａｒＭａｒｋｅｔＤｅｍａｎｄａｎｄｔｈｅＱｕａｎｔｉｔｙｏｆＣａｒＰｏｓｓｅｓｓｉｏｎｉｎＯｕｒＣｏｕｎｔｒｙｉｎ２０００Ｉｎｔｈｉｓｓｅｃｔｉｏｎ,ｗｅｓｈａｌｌｆｏｒｅｃａｓｔｔｈｅｃａｒｍａｒｋｅｔｄｅｍａｎｄａｎｄｔｈｅｑｕａｎｔｉｔｙｏｆｃａｒｐｏｓｓｅｓｓｉｏｎｉｎｏｕｒｃｏｕｎｔｒｙｉｎ２０００ｂｙｍｅａｎｓｏｆｔｗｏｓｔａｔｉｓｔｉｃｓｍｅｔｈｏｄｓ,ｉ．ｅ．ｔｅｎｄｅｎｃｙｉｎｆｅｒｅｎｃｅａｎｄｒｅｇｒｅｓ－ｓｉｏｎａｎａｌｙｓｉｓ．…     

Evaluation of high-field asymmetric waveform ion mobility spectrometry mass spectrometry for the analysis of the mycotoxin zearalenone

A high-field asymmetric waveform ion mobility spectrometry (FAIMS)-based method for the determination of the mycotoxin zearalenone (ZON) and its metabolites α-zearalenol (α-ZOL), β-zearalenol (β-ZOL), and β-zearalanol (β-ZAL), in a cornmeal (maize) matrix is described. Detection limits achieved using the FAIMS device coupled with electrospray ionization (ESI) and mass spectrometric (MS) detection are 0.4 ng mL⁻¹ for ZON and 3 ng mL⁻¹ for α-ZOL + β-ZOL, and β-ZAL. This represents a significant improvement when compared to detection limits determined using ESI-MS or ESI-tandem mass spectrometry (MSMS) analytical methods. The developed flow-injection (FIA)-ESI-FAIMS-MS method was applied to reference materials ERM-BC-716 and ERM-BC-717 certified for ZON and excellent agreement with the certified values was observed.     

基于GA优化BP网络输入的人力资本预测研究

人力资本是决定地区经济增长的重要因素之一,其形成受多种因素的综合影响。利用BP神经网络进行预测时,因人力资本形成因素众多,各因素之间信息独立性差,交叉重叠的信息使得神经网络的结构过于庞大,极大地影响了网络的性能。本文采用遗传算法(GA)对人力资本形成因素进行优化,化选出与人力资本关系最密切、反应最敏感的少数指标,再利用优化后的指标对我国31个地区的人力资本进行预测,有效地降低了网络输入维数,提高了网络精度。     

逻辑斯蒂曲线的几个推广模型与应用

本给出逻辑斯蒂曲线的三个推广模型，即广义逻辑斯蒂曲线模型、含季节性变化的逻辑斯蒂曲线模型、合成逻辑斯蒂曲线模型及其模型参数估计的方法，井对我国汽车生产量作出了很好的预测。     

Small Target Detection Algorithm Based on Average Absolute Difference Maximum and Background Forecast

Detecting small targets in clutter scene and low SNR (Signal Noise Ratio) is an important and challenging problem in infrared (IR) images. In order to solve this problem, we should do works from two sides: enhancing targets and suppressing background. Firstly, in this paper, the system utilizes the average absolute difference maximum (AADM) as the dissimilarity measurement between targets and background region to enhance targets. Secondly, it uses a predictor to suppress the background clutter. Finally, our approach extracts the interested small target with segment threshold. Experimental results show that the algorithm proposed has better performance with respect to probability of detection and less computation complexity. It is an effective small infrared target detection algorithm against complex background.     

Optimal adjustment of manpower-requirement forecasts: A case study of Iran

The manpower forecasting models are frequently used in development planning. The usual approach in these models is to correlate the manpower requirement with the level of economic activities and to declare the forecasted figures as the educational targets of the development plan. In this paper we show that because of uncertainties involved in these forecasts, and due to the lack of a cost consideration mechanism in the above models, the implementation of such an educational plan causes an inefficiency in the society's allocation of resources. We then derive an adjustment rule which modifies the manpower-requirement forecasts based on balancing the trade-offs between the cost of educational and the degree of target realization.For demonstration purposes, we apply the above rule to the case of Iran and, through this application, we introduce a methodology for analyzing the sensitivity of results to different types of errors contained in the manpower-requirement forecasts.     

Fuzzy statistic and comprehensive evaluating study for activity characterization of the active region

In this paper, the theory and method of the fuzzy mathematics are used to probe the connection between the activity of the active region and characterization of the sunspot groups, to build the subordinating function according to the relationship between them and to evaluate comprehensively the activity of the active region on the solar disk. The precise prediction of activity of the active regions has been obtained by data reduction and analysis. The predicting accuracy is higher than 95%. Forecast results indicate that the method of the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation is a good one for the solar activity prediction.     

Circular antenna design by adaptive position inheritance artificial bee colony algorithm

Reliable communication is a key factor in the development of the fifth generation wireless communication systems. To achieve reliable communication, designing desirable antenna arrays is the basis so as to realize wireless data transmission. Artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm has shown its powerfulness in engineering design problems, though the performance of ABC could be improved further through information exchange of existing solutions. This paper proposes an adaptive position inheritance strategy for ABC algorithm. It adaptively decides the number of positions to be inherited attached with the evolutionary process of the algorithm. Take circular antenna as design example. The proposed algorithm is tested against with method of exhaustion. Simulation results show the usefulness of the proposed algorithm. Moreover, the proposed algorithm is also compared with state of the art algorithm under ABC paradigm. It turns out that the proposed algorithm attains better design solution. Thus, the proposed algorithm is useful for providing good design solutions in reliable communication.     

黄土滑坡发育类型及其空间预测方法

现场调查了黄土地区的大量滑坡,按运动方式将其分成错落式滑坡、高速远程滑坡、低速缓动滑坡和滑坡泥流四种类型,并以4个典型滑坡为例,分析了各类滑坡的形成条件和运动学特征。提出了在各类运动方式下黄土滑坡的空间预测指标、影响因子和建模思想。为黄土地区的滑坡灾害空间预测提供了整体思路,为滑坡的预测理论建模提供了基础依据。