大气中臭氧含量分析预测的支向量机模型

以俄亥俄州(O h io)的气象、臭氧监测数据为基础,对一个监测点数据进行了分析处理,运用支持向量机回归方法,对气象指标的多参数样本进行学习,获得精确的支持向量机映射关系,并对臭氧含量进行预测.预测结果的误差较小,符合实际情况,能够较好的解决实际问题,说明支持向量机回归在预测上具有小的结构风险与强的泛化能力.     

Allocation of flexible and indivisible resources with decision postponement and demand learning

We consider a firm that uses two perishable resources to satisfy two demand types. Resources are flexible such that each resource can be used to satisfy either demand type. Resources are also indivisible such that the entire resource must be allocated to the same demand type. This type of resource flexibility can be found in different applications such as movie theater complexes, cruise lines, and airlines. In our model, customers arrive according to independent Poisson processes, but the arrival rates are uncertain. Thus, the manager can learn about customer arrival rates from earlier demand figures and potentially increase the sales by postponing the resource allocation decision. We consider two settings, and derive the optimal resource allocation policy for one setting and develop a heuristic policy for the other. Our analysis provides managerial insights into the effectiveness of different resource allocation mechanisms for flexible and indivisible resources.     

WAVEFORM RELAXATION METHODS OF NONLINEAR INTEGRAL-DIFFERENTIAL-ALGEBRAIC EQUATIONS

In this paper we consider continuous-time and discrete-time waveform relaxation meth-ods for general nonlinear integral-differential-algebraic equations. For the continuous-time case we derive the convergence condition of the iterative methods by invoking the spec-tral theory on the resulting iterative operators. By use of the implicit difference forms,namely the backward-differentiation formulae, we also yield the convergence condition of the discrete waveforms. Numerical experiments are provided to illustrate the theoretical work reported here.     

神经网络汛期降水短期气候预测模型

用1960-2005年每年5-9月安徽宣城7县(市)平均降水量作为预报对象,在对应降水前期逐月74项大气环流特征量资料、500hPa月平均高度场和月平均海温场资料中选取因子.采用主分量分析方法构造网络学习矩阵,降低矩阵维数,提高网络预测模型泛化性能.建立的神经网络汛期降水短期气候预测模型对历年样本拟合精度高,试报效果较好,可在气候预测业务中使用.     

灰色系统理论在粮食产量预测中的应用

应用灰色系统理论的基本原理,建立灰色预测模型,并以2010-2015年甘肃省的粮食产量为统计资料,运用GM(1,1)模型进行预测,取得了较好的预测效果.     

Kalman滤波在气象预报中的应用

本文讨论了 Kalm an滤波算法及其在气象预报中的应用 ,并对烟台 11市、区、县的日最高、最低气温预报的结果进行了分析     

INFRARED SMALL TARGET DETECTION ALGORITHM BASED ON SELF-ADAPTIVE BACKGROUND FORECAST

A background forecast filter is presented to detect a small target under an infrared (IR) nature scene. By calculating the correlation of image pixels, the background around the small target could be forecasted. Subtracting the forecast background from original scene, the small targets would become outstanding. Experimental results show that the algorithm proposed has better performance with respect to probability of detection and less computation complexity.     

激光频率调制线型分析

在激光频率调制的理论分析中,一般采用正弦波调制、正弦波解调,而没有讨论调制和解调的其它情况。本文主要分析了Guass线型吸收的情况下,锯齿波调制、方波解调的一次、二次谐波相检结果和三角波调制、方波解调的一次、二次谐波相检结果,以及调制深度对信号谱形和信号强度的影响。我们发现,在锯齿波调制、方波解调情况下,一次、二次谐波谱形和正弦波调制情况区别很大;但在三角波调制、方波解调情况下,可以获得和正弦波调制、正弦波解市场相似的结论。另外,不同的调制深度对输出的调制谱形也有重要的影响。我们还用甲烷的可调谐 红外光调制吸收光谱实验验证了理论分析结果。最终得到结论：频率调制谱的信号谱形及信号强度与调制波形、解调波形和调制深度均有关系。     

基于修正转移概率矩阵的Markov方法在企业人才结构预测中的应用

预测企业人才结构的变化;修正转移概率矩阵的Markov预测方法;用修正转移概率矩阵的Markov模型针对人才结构进行定量预测与分析,对历史数据样本数量要求不多,并且计算简便;获取的计算结果更具客观性、真实性.     

黄土滑坡发育类型及其空间预测方法

现场调查了黄土地区的大量滑坡,按运动方式将其分成错落式滑坡、高速远程滑坡、低速缓动滑坡和滑坡泥流四种类型,并以4个典型滑坡为例,分析了各类滑坡的形成条件和运动学特征。提出了在各类运动方式下黄土滑坡的空间预测指标、影响因子和建模思想。为黄土地区的滑坡灾害空间预测提供了整体思路,为滑坡的预测理论建模提供了基础依据。