2006～201O年宁波非公有制经济领域人才需求预测

通过建立GM(1,1)模型,结合宁波市2005年对非公有制经济领域人才资源的抽样调查数据,对2006～2010年期间宁波市非公有制经济领域人才需求量和人才质量进行动态分析和预测.     

利用数值进制的方法快速预测事件发生的模型及其应用

通过对影响事件发生的因素的分析,提出了因素数字化的简单方法,利用数值进制的方法建立了因素与事件发生的快速预测模型,可以在社会各个领域得到广泛的应用.     

Periodic-Review Inventory Model with Three Consecutive Delivery Modes and Forecast Updates

This paper is concerned with a periodic-review inventory system with three consecutive delivery modes (fast, medium, and slow) and demand forecast updates. At the beginning of each period, the inventory level and demand information are updated and decisions on how much to order using each of the three delivery modes are made. It is shown that there is a base-stock policy for fast and medium modes which is optimal. Furthermore, the optimal policy for the slow mode may not be a base-stock policy in general.This research was supported in part by a Faculty Research Grant from the University of Texas at Dallas, a RGC (Hong Kong) Competitive Earmarked Research Grant, a Distinguished Young Investigator Grant from the National Natural Sciences Foundation of China, and a Grant from the Hundred Talents Program of the Chinese Academy of Sciences.     

基于径向基函数神经网络的流程企业供应链预测仿真

本文在比较预测方法的基础上，采用径向基函数（RBF）神经网络技术建立流程企业供应链预测模型，进行了实例预测仿真，并将预测结果与BP网络的预测结果进行了比较。结果表明，RBF网络误差小于BP网络，其中平方根RBF网络的预测仿真误差最小，而BP网络的误差最大。     

"神舟"五号的空间环境保障

空间环境安全保障是载人航天器飞行安全和航天员生命安全保障的一个重要部分．文章从高层大气、高能辐射环境、流星体空间碎片和重大空间环境扰动事件等四个方面空间环境要素对载人航天的影响，介绍了空间环境预报中心为“神舟”五号载人飞行任务所作的空间环境保障工作．     

The problem of processing time series: Extending possibilities of the local approximation method using singular spectrum analysis

We present algorithms for singular spectrum analysis and local approximation methods used to extrapolate time series. We analyze the advantages and disadvantages of these methods and consider the peculiarities of applying them to various systems. Based on this analysis, we propose a generalization of the local approximation method that makes it suitable for forecasting very noisy time series. We present the results of numerical simulations illustrating the possibilities of the proposed method.Translated from Teoreticheskaya i Matematicheskaya Fizika, Vol. 142, No. 1, pp. 148–159, January, 2005.     

Design of stochastic hitless‐prediction router by using the first exceed level theory

This paper deals with an enhanced hitless‐prediction router system that has the hitless‐restart capability with forecasting. Hitless‐restart means that the router can stay on the forwarding path and the network topology remains stable. But the major difficulty of the current hitless‐restart is that the router is always active to take the action, such as non‐stop forwarding (upgrade, maintenance and capacity expansion may be included as third party activities). Stochastic hitless‐prediction model gives the decision making factors that manage a router system more efficiently. An analogue of the first exceed level theory is applied for the restriction of the number of buffer size that is the router capacity. Analytically, tractable results are obtained by using a first exceed level process that enables us to determine the decision making factors such as recycle periods of the hitless‐prediction point to prevent a router shutdown. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

状态概率的E-Bayes估计与多层Bayes估计

在文献[1]中提出了参数估计的一种方法--E-Bayes估计并给出了状态概率的E-Bayes估计的定义、E-Bayes估计公式、预测模型及其在证券投资中应用,本文在此基础上将给出状态概率的多层Bayes估计、状态概率的E-Bayes估计的性质--E-Bayes估计,多层Bayes估计的关系.最后,给出模拟算例.     

Measurement of subpicosecond optical waveforms using a resonator-based phase modulator

We propose a method for the measurement of periodic optical waveforms based on the use of an electrooptic phase modulator placed in an optical Fabry-Perot or ring resonator. Significant broadening of the modulation spectrum extends the recently developed method of periodic modulation for pulse characterization into femtosecond scales. We numerically demonstrate the characterization of a 300-fs optical pulse. We also present a technique based on the temporal fractional Talbot effect for restoration of the pulse phase profile. After fast linear processing, subpicosecond pulses will be observed on the screen of a real-time oscilloscope. This complete characterization of optical pulses is entirely linear and therefore highly sensitive and simple in implementation.