具有生产性与福利性公共支出的随机内生增长模型

文章建立一个随机内生增长模型来阐明主要政策参数对经济增长与社会福利的影响.若对生产函数、效用函数、偏好及随机干扰作一些特殊的假设,我们证明了主要政策参数的均衡值能被模型参数唯一决定.进一步我们还得到了期望增长率与储蓄的清晰解.文章的最后,我们证明了政府支出直接影响个体决策者的决策:即提高经济增长率将减少福利;反之,增加福利将减少增长率.     

How to assess and report the performance of a stochastic algorithm on a benchmark problem: mean or best result on a number of runs?

Some authors claim that reporting the best result obtained by a stochastic algorithm in a number of runs is more meaningful than reporting some central statistic. In this short note, we analyze and refute the main argument brought in favor of this statement.     

An optimal design of collateralized mortgage obligation with PAC-companion structure using dynamic cash reserve

This paper presents a model for optimally designing a collateralized mortgage obligation (CMO) with a planned amortization class (PAC)-companion structure using dynamic cash reserve. In this structure, the mortgage pool’s cash flow is allocated by rule to the two bond classes such that PAC bondholders receive substantial prepayment protection, that protection being provided by the companion bondholders. The structure we propose provides greater protection to the PAC bondholders than current structures during periods of rising interest rates when this class of bondholders faces greater extension risk. We do so by allowing a portion of the cash flow from the collateral to be reserved to meet the PAC’s scheduled cash flow in subsequent periods. The greater protection is provided by the companion bondholders exposure to interest loss. To tackle this problem, we transform the problem of designing the optimal PAC-companion structure into a standard stochastic linear programming problem which can be solved efficiently. Moreover, we present an extended model by considering the quality of the companion bond and by relaxing the PAC bondholder shortfall constraint. Based on numerical experiments through Monte Carlo simulation, we show the utility of the proposed model.     

带利息力和干扰的批量索赔一般到达风险模型

本文在经典风险模型的基础上,将索赔到达过程推广为更新过程,索赔可以批量到达,且带有常数利息力和Brown运动干扰项,得到一个新的风险模型,运用Markov骨架过程的方法,得出盈余过程的瞬时分布和生存概率.     

Local polynomial fitting under association

We consider the estimation of multivariate regression functions r(x₁,…,x_d) and their partial derivatives up to a total order p1 using high-order local polynomial fitting. The processes {Y_i,X_i} are assumed to be (jointly) associated. Joint asymptotic normality is established for the estimates of the regression function r and all its partial derivatives up to the total order p. Expressions for the bias and variance/covariance matrix (of the asymptotic distribution) are given.     

A parallel inexact newton method for stochastic programs with recourse

A parallel inexact Newton method with a line search is proposed for two-stage quadratic stochastic programs with recourse. A lattice rule is used for the numerical evaluation of multi-dimensional integrals, and a parallel iterative method is used to solve the quadratic programming subproblems. Although the objective only has a locally Lipschitz gradient, global convergence and local superlinear convergence of the method are established. Furthermore, the method provides an error estimate which does not require much extra computation. The performance of the method is illustrated on a CM5 parallel computer.This work was supported by the Australian Research Council and the numerical experiments were done on the Sydney Regional Centre for Parallel Computing CM5.     

Model-dependent nature of blowtorch effect on the escape and equilibration rates

We analyze the relaxation behavior of a bistable system when the background temperature profile is inhomogeneous due to the presence of a localized hot region (blowtorch) on one side of the potential barrier. Since the diffusion equation for inhomogeneous medium is model-dependent, we consider two physical models to study the kinetics of such system. Using a conventional stochastic method, we obtain the escape and equilibration rates of the system for the two physical models. For both models, we find that the hot region enhances the escape rate from the well where it is placed while it retards the escape rate from the other well. However, the value of the escape rate from the well where the hot region is placed differs for the two models while that of the escape rate from the other well is identical for both. This work, for the first time, gives a detailed report of the similarities and differences of the escape rates and, hence, exposes the common and distinct features of the two known physical models in determining the way the bistable system relaxes. Received 25 September 2001     

Some time change representations of stable integrals, via predictable transformations of local martingales

From the predictable reduction of a marked point process to Poisson, we derive a similar reduction theorem for purely discontinuous martingales to processes with independent increments. Both results are then used to examine the existence of stochastic integrals with respect to stable Lévy processes, and to prove a variety of time change representations for such integrals. The Knight phenomenon, where possibly dependent but orthogonal processes become independent after individual time changes, emerges as a general principle.     

A simple formula for mean multiplexing delay for independent regenerative sources

Simple expressions are given for the mean delay, mean waiting time, and mean busy period length in a multiplexer. Data streams with active periods having a general distribution are permitted, and the data rate during the active periods can be random. Data can also arrive in batches. The key restrictions of the model are that the sources are independent, idle periods are exponentially distributed, and a source generates at least enough data during an active period to keep the server busy throughout the period. The exact formulas allow evaluation of the error in approximations such as a heavy traffic diffusion approximation.Both continuous and discrete time models are considered. The discrete-time model includes that studied by Viterbi and subsequently generalized by Neuts. The Pollaczek-Khinchine formula for the mean amount of work in anM/GI/1 queue is retrieved as a limiting case.Preliminary version presented at IEEE INFOCOM, San Francisco, April 1993.     

On distributionally regenerative processes

The paper is concerned with characterization results for distributional regeneration. It is shown that distributional regeneration is equivalent to renewal representation of the associated (shift) Markov operator. A sufficient condition for the distributional regeneration of the transfer operator in terms of variation is also formulated. Finally, a minorization condition is formulated and proved to be sufficient for recurrent co-Feller operators.