Portfolio optimization in stochastic markets

We consider a multiperiod mean-variance model where the model parameters change according to a stochastic market. The mean vector and covariance matrix of the random returns of risky assets all depend on the state of the market during any period where the market process is assumed to follow a Markov chain. Dynamic programming is used to solve an auxiliary problem which, in turn, gives the efficient frontier of the mean-variance formulation. An explicit expression is obtained for the efficient frontier and an illustrative example is given to demonstrate the application of the procedure.     

Noncooperative facility location games

A noncooperative game theoretical approach is considered for the multifacility location problem. It turns out that the facility location game is a potential game in the sense of Monderer and Shapley and some properties of the game are studied.     

Decay Rates in Probability Metrics Towards Homogeneous Cooling States for the Inelastic Maxwell Model

We quantify the long-time behavior of solutions to the nonlinear Boltzmann equation for spatially uniform freely cooling inelastic Maxwell molecules by means of the contraction property of a suitable metric in the set of probability measures. Existence, uniqueness, and precise estimates of overpopulated high energy tails of the self-similar profile proved in ref. 9 are revisited and derived from this new Liapunov functional. For general initial conditions the solutions of the Boltzmann equation are then proved to converge with computable rate as t → ∞ to the self-similar solution in this distance, which metrizes the weak convergence of measures. Moreover, we can relate this Fourier distance to the Euclidean Wasserstein distance or Tanaka functional proving also its exponential convergence towards the homogeneous cooling states. The findings are relevant in the understanding of the conjecture formulated by Ernst and Brito in refs. 15, 16, and complement and improve recent studies on the same problem of Bobylev and Cercignani⁽⁹⁾ and Bobylev, Cercignani and one of the authors.⁽¹¹⁾     

基于扩散势能和自由体积的自扩散系数模型

在考虑自由体积和局部临界扩散势能的基础上,提出一种新的计算自扩散系数模型,并给出新模型中各个因子物理含义．同时还提出一种计算局部临界扩散势能的新方法,并应用于新模型．另外将衍生van der Waals状态方程应用于求解自由体积,式中所需径向分布函数由Morsali-Goharshadi方程得到．在相同条件下,新模型比原自由体积模型更准确．     

带ARMA(1,1)条件异方差相关的随机波动模型的MCMC算法

我们首先提出了一个带ARMA(1,1)条件异方差相关的随机波动模型,它是基本的随机波动模型的一个自然的推广.进一步,对于这一新模型,我们给出了一个马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(M CM C)算法.最后,利用该模型的模拟数据,展示了M CM C算法在这种模型中的应用.     

Automatic detection and identification of shocks in Gaussian state‐space models: a Bayesian approach

An automatic monitoring and intervention algorithm that permits the supervision of very general aspects in an univariate linear Gaussian state–space model is proposed. The algorithm makes use of a model comparison and selection approach within a Bayesian framework. In addition, this algorithm incorporates the possibility of eliminating earlier interventions when subsequent evidence against them comes to light. Finally, the procedure is illustrated with two empirical examples taken from the literature. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Robust Bayesian Inference for Seemingly Unrelated Regressions with Elliptical Errors

Bayesian inference is considered for the seemingly unrelated regressions with an elliptically contoured error distribution. We show that the posterior distribution of the regression parameters and the predictive distribution of future observations under elliptical errors assumption are identical to those obtained under independently distributed normal errors when an improper prior is used. This gives inference robustness with respect to departures from the reference case of independent sampling from the normal distribution.     

Nonlinear Time Series Analysis Since 1990:Some Personal Reflections

Abstract I reflect upon the development of nonlinear time series analysis since 1990 by focusing on five majorareas of development. These areas include the interface between nonlinear time series analysis and chaos,thenonparametric/semiparametric approach,nonlinear state space modelling,financial time series and nonlinearmodelling of panels of time series.     

New feature in the Auger peak of adsorbed oxygen

Recent joint theoretical and experimental investigations of Auger core-core-valence spectra of alkali adatoms on simple metals have revealed that such technique is capable to ascertain contributions from different adsorption environments in the signal [M.I. Trioni, S. Caravati, G.P. Brivio, L. Floreano, F. Bruno, A. Morgante, Phys. Rev. Lett. 93 (2004) 206802]. Consequently, to verify if such an effect is present also for other chemical species, we study theoretically the KLV transition of oxygen either as a bulk impurity or as an adsorbate in/on Al and Ag (jellium-like). We make use of the Fermi golden rule in which the matrix elements of the interaction are calculated within DFT. We verify that the relevant physical quantity of this phenomenon is the excited local density of states (LDOS), calculated within a region centered on the core ionized atom. The Auger rate for oxygen in Ag bulk displays a single asymmetric peak, while for adsorbed oxygen a second smaller feature at lower energies, and very close to the first one, appears. This unexpected result follows from the removal of the degeneracy of the m quantum number of the 2p states of oxygen at the surface. It is only displayed on the electronically less dense metal (Ag), but not on Al.     

Preliminary results of a non-spherical aerosol method for the retrieval of the atmospheric aerosol optical properties

There is experimental evidence that the non-sphericity of certain atmospheric particles can cause scattering properties different from those predicted by standard Mie theory. Numerous studies indicate the need to consider the presence of non-spherical particles in modeling the optical properties of atmospheric aerosols. On the other hand, natural aerosols show a great variety of shapes, making difficult a realistic choice of a particle shape (or shape mixture) model. In this paper, we test a parameterization of the particle shape in the retrieval of size distribution, phase function, single scattering albedo and asymmetry parameter from direct and sky-radiance measurements. For this purpose we have substituted the Kernel based on the Mie theory included in the model SKYRAD.PACK by one derived for non-spherical particles. The method is applied under different atmospheric conditions, including Saharan dust outbreak, polluted and local mineral episodes. We compare the results with those obtained by the well known spheroids algorithm used in the AERONET network.