基于模糊灰色新陈代谢FGM(1,1)模型预测及应用探讨

巷道围岩变形是煤矿开采普遍存在的问题,巷道开挖过程中围岩会出现破裂现象.主要探讨模糊灰色系统的深部巷道围岩变形预测模型及应用,通过分析模糊数学理论、灰色理论,给出模糊灰色系统预测新陈代谢模型.     

我国环境污染与居民恶性肿瘤发病及死亡的灰色关联度分析

收集2003-2012年三个区域:全国区域、城市区域、农村区域的恶性肿瘤发病及死亡率和污染物数据,采用灰色关联分析方法计算了不同区域与不同污染物的综合关联度,并对污染物致恶性肿瘤死亡的潜伏期作了定量分析.研究结果表明:1)氨氮排放量和二氧化硫对我国三个不同区域居民恶性肿瘤发病和死亡率的影响最大;2)污染物与恶性肿瘤发病率的关联度跟区域无关,但是污染物与恶性肿瘤死亡率的关联度城市明显大于农村,污染物与恶性肿瘤死亡率的关联度男性明显大于女性;3)氨氮和二氧化硫导致居民恶性肿瘤死亡的潜伏期分别为:2和1年.     

非等距时间序列的GM（1，N）模型及其在地下工程中的应用

文献〔１〕给出了等距时间序列的灰色预测ＧＭ（１，Ｎ）模型，本文把它推广到非等距时间序列，得到了相应模型，并应用于地下工程的几个实例     

用灰色理论和神经网络理论建立陀螺漂移模型初探

本文就灰色理论和神经网络技术在建立陀螺漂移模型上的应用进行了初步探讨；介绍了这两种理论工程应用上的方法和特点以及相关的一些问题。     

非确定结构系统区间分析的泛灰求解方法

工程中的不确定性问题可以用区间分析、概率理论或模糊理论来求解。采用泛灰区间分析法来处理结构静力分析和设计中的不确定性问题。将结构系统中的不确定性参数用区间数来表示，用有限元法建立系统的控制方程。该控制方程是线性区间方程组。然后，在概述泛灰数的概念及其运算规则的基础上，介绍了泛灰数与区间数的转化，利用泛灰数的可扩展性对区间进行分析，研究了泛灰线性方程求解，然后将它应用于结构静力分析和设计中的不确定性问题，泛灰数不仅具有区间分析的功能，而且能解决区间分析所不能解决的问题。文中给出了两个算例，列出了本文算法与其他算法的结果比较。     

Propagation of longitudinal elastic waves in composites with a random set of spherical inclusions (effective field approach)

The work is devoted to the problem of plane monochromatic longitudinal wave propagation through a homogeneous elastic medium with a random set of spherical inclusions. The effective field method and quasicrystalline approximation are used for the calculation of the phase velocity and attenuation factor of the mean (coherent) wave field in the composite. The hypotheses of the method reduce the diffraction problem for many inclusions to a diffraction problem for one inclusion and, finally, allow for the derivation of the dispersion equation for the wave vector of the mean wave field in the composite. This dispersion equation serves for all frequencies of the incident field, properties and volume concentrations of inclusions. The long and short wave asymptotics of the solution of the dispersion equation are found in closed analytical forms. Numerical solutions of this equation are constructed in a wide region of frequencies of the incident field that covers long, middle, and short wave regions of propagating waves. The phase velocities and attenuation factors of the mean wave field are calculated for various elastic properties, density, and volume concentrations of the inclusions. Comparisons of the predictions of the method with some experimental data are presented; possible errors of the method are indicated and discussed.     

石油钻机盘式刹车副材料筛选的灰色关联分析

在对 6种刹车盘和 2种刹车块材料组成的摩擦副进行变温摩擦磨损试验的基础上 ,将灰色关联法引入刹车副材料的筛选 ;在综合分析刹车副材料各性能指标的基础上 ,将待筛选的刹车副材料的摩擦学性能用灰色关联度进行量化 ;通过比较各刹车副关联度大小 ,用定量排序法对各刹车副材料的性能作出综合评价 ,从而筛选出性能优良的刹车副摩擦材料 .结果表明 ,B堆焊材料是最优的刹车盘材料 ,K2 刹车块材料可作为最优的刹车块材料 ,刹车副 P2 0 ,B/ K2 、P3 5,B/ K2 为筛选出的最优刹车副材料     

Mean stress in a granular medium in dynamics

In this paper we propose to construct a mean stress tensor for a granular medium, valid in static and in dynamics, which takes into account the contact reactions and the body forces acting at the grain level. A simple analytical example shows that taking account of inertia forces is essential to insure the symmetry of the mean stress tensor in dynamics. Finally, numerical simulations illustrating this definition of the mean stress tensor are presented for a granular medium ensiled.     

中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型在滑坡变形预测中的应用

黄龙西村滑坡位于甘肃天水,属黄土高势能滑坡,滑体体积3.9×10⁵m³,基底为花岗闪长岩。为了提高滑坡灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度,采用一种改变背景值的方法--中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型。通过黄龙西村滑坡实例验证分析,结果表明中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测值与该滑坡实际监测值十分接近,且其残差平方和及平均误差百分比明显比传统灰色GM(1,1)模型的残差平方和及平均误差百分比小,具有较高的预测精度。同时,可通过调整模型中参数m的取值,使中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型具有更高的预测精度。经计算,当m=6时,中心逼近式灰色GM(1,1)模型的预测精度比传统灰色GM(1,1)模型提高了5.34%。     

Improved operator comfort and off-road capability through pendulum arm technology

The Nordic forest industry requires just-in-time wood deliveries. Operations must continue regardless of season, weather and terrain. Soil compaction and deep ruts must be avoided while providing high performance and a reasonable working environment for operators.The Xt28 pendulum arm forwarder is a full-size concept forwarder with six hydrostatic propelled wheels on pendulum arms built on a three-piece frame connected with two articulation joints. The Xt28 concept machine was tested according to Skogforsk standard machine tests. Rut depth test focused on soil interaction where rut depth was measured related to number of passes. Machine dynamics were measured using standardized test track with focus on operator comfort.The project proved the potential of pendulum arm technology in off-road transportation. Automatic pendulum arm levelling, equalized ground pressure between wheels and improved operator comfort through reducing adverse vibrations and roll angles, simultaneously reducing dynamic forces transferred to the forest floor. Pendulum arm technology improves travel speed in adverse terrain, providing unparalleled side slope capability and enhanced productivity.