AN ENCOMPASSING APPROACH TO MODELING FISHERY DYNAMICS: MODELING DYNAMIC NONLINEAR SYSTEMS

Uncertainty about the nature and significance of nonlinearities and the manner in which dynamics affect future realizations makes model specification the most difficult aspect of modeling dynamic systems. By interpreting several popular fishery models as subcases of a nesting dynamic Taylor series approximation, we isolate the specification differences between these models in a way that accounts for commonalities. On the argument that the differences due to alternative nonlinear forms are likely to be small compared to more mundane considerations such as delay difference and general dynamic lag specification, we propose an alternative model that uses the terms from the first order approximation common to all models combined with a data-based determination of the appropriate lags using the methods of state space time series analysis. Finally, the success of the alternative models is judged in an application to Pacific halibut data.     

Experimental verification of drop/impact simulation for a cellular phone

Conducting drop tests to investigate impact behavior and identify failure mechanisms of small-size electronic products is generally expensive and time-consuming. Nevertheless, strict drop/impact performance criteria for hand-held electronic products such as cellular phones play a decisive role in the design because they must withstand unexpected shocks. The design of product durability on impact has heavily relied on the designer's intuition and experience. In this study, a reliable drop/impact simulation for a cellular phone is carried out using the explicit code LS-DYNA. Subsequently globallocal experimental verification is accomplished by means of high-speed photography and impact response measurement. Using this methodology, we predict potential damage locations in a cellular phone and compare them with real statistical data. It is envisaged that development of a reliable methodology of drop/impact simulation will provide us with a powerful and efficient vehicle for improvement of the design quality and reduction of the product development cycle.     

Ferromagnetic Properties of Bond-Dilution and Random Positive or Negative Uniaxial Anisotropy Blume-Capel Model

We study the ferromagnetic properties of spin-1 system, which is considered in the frame of the bond dilution and random positive or negative anisotropy Blume-Capel model in the effective field theory and a cutting approximation. The investigation of phase diagrams displays some rich properties of the trajectory of tricritical point, reentrant henomena at low temperatures. Under certain both bond concentrations and random negative anisotropy, there are new transition lines of double tricritical points. So special emphasis is placed on the influence of the bond dilution and random anisotropy on phase diagrams. The magnetizations of the system are also discussed. Some results have not been evealed in previous reports.     

The variation of carrier gas viscosities with temperature

After describing simplified equations exspressing the temparature dependency of the viscosity of carrier gases (helium, nitrogen and hydrogen ) relative to a base value, absolute relationships based on the kinetic theory of gases are discussed. Comparative data obtained using various calculation methods are given and are compared to measured values. Based on the kinetic relationshipsm, of viscosity. Finally, the influence of pressure on the viscosity is also briefly discussed. As a supplement, Viscosity data are tabulated for the three gases in the range of 0°C to 400°C in increments of 2 K, calculated using the kinetic relationships.     

Statistical mechanics of warm and cold unfolding in proteins

We present a statistical mechanics treatment of the stability of globular proteins which takes explicitly into account the coupling between the protein and water degrees of freedom. This allows us to describe both the cold and the warm unfolding, thus qualitatively reproducing the known thermodynamics of proteins. Received: 19 March 1998 / Revised and Accepted: 25 May 1998     

“String” formulation of the dynamics of the forward interest rate curve

We propose a formulation of the term structure of interest rates in which the forward curve is seen as the deformation of a string. We derive the general condition that the partial differential equations governing the motion of such string must obey in order to account for the condition of absence of arbitrage opportunities. This condition takes a form similar to a fluctuation-dissipation theorem, albeit on the same quantity (the forward rate), linking the bias to the covariance of variation fluctuations. We provide the general structure of the models that obey this constraint in the framework of stochastic partial (possibly non-linear) differential equations. We derive the general solution for the pricing and hedging of interest rate derivatives within this framework, albeit for the linear case (we also provide in the appendix a simple and intuitive derivation of the standard European option problem). We also show how the “string” formulation simplifies into a standard N-factor model under a Galerkin approximation. Received: 30 January 1998 / Revised: 12 February 1998 / Accepted: 16 February 1998     

New numerical methods and some applied aspects of the p-regularity theory

The theory of p-regularity is applied to optimization problems and to singular ordinary differential equations (ODE). The special variant of the method of the modified Lagrangian function proposed by Yu.G. Evtushenko for constrained optimization problems with inequality constraints is justified on the basis of the 2-factor transformation. An implicit function theorem is given for the singular case. This theorem is used to show the existence of solutions to a boundary value problem for a nonlinear differential equation in the resonance case. New numerical methods are proposed including the p-factor method for solving ODEs with a small parameter.     

The Spirit Is Willing: Nonlinearity, Bifurcations, and Mental Control

In recent years there has been considerable interest in the construction of nonlinear models of the dynamics of human behavior. In this exploratory article we argue that attempts at controlling problematic thoughts, emotions, or behaviors can lead to nonlinearity in mental/behavioral dynamics. We illustrate our model by fitting threshold autoregression models to self-recorded time series of the daily highs in intensity of anxiety and obsessive ruminations, kept by an individual in therapy for this problem. In our discussion, we raise the possibility that bifurcations that occur in this nonlinear model may offer insight into mental control paradoxes.     

应用马尔科夫状态转移链的作战航空综合体效能评估

文章阐述了作战航空综合体的相关概念及组成,应用马尔科夫状态转移链建立了作战航空综合体完成典型作战任务时的数学模型,确定了作战效能的评估指标,最后通过具体算例检验了模型的正确性和可行性.