Experiments on forecasting behavior with several sources of information - A review of the literature

Decision makers frequently have to forecast the future values of a time series (e.g. the price of a commodity, sales figures) given several sources of information (e.g. leading indicators, forecasts of advisors). As a subdomain of decision theory the explanation and the improvement of human forecasting behavior are interdisciplinary issues and have been subject to extensive empirical field and laboratory research. We here review the relevant experimental literature, demonstrate the significance of these results for decision science in general, and summarize the implications for practical forecasting applications.     

The effects of changing water content,relaxation times,and tissue contrast on tissue segmentation and measures of cortical anatomy in MR images

Water content is the dominant chemical compound in the brain and it is the primary determinant of tissue contrast in magnetic resonance (MR) images. Water content varies greatly between individuals, and it changes dramatically over time from birth through senescence of the human life span. We hypothesize that the effects that individual- and age-related variations in water content have on contrast of the brain in MR images also have important, systematic effects on in vivo, MRI-based measures of regional brain volumes. We also hypothesize that changes in water content and tissue contrast across time may account for age-related changes in regional volumes, and that differences in water content or tissue contrast across differing neuropsychiatric diagnoses may account for differences in regional volumes across diagnostic groups.     

Matrix shrinkage of high-dimensional expectation vectors

The shrinkage effect is studied in estimating the expectation vector by weighting of mean vector components in the system of coordinates in which sample covariance matrix is diagonal. The Kolmogorov asymptotic approach is applied, when sample size increases together with the dimension, so that their ratio tends to a constant. Under some weak assumptions on the dependence of variables, the limit expression for the principal part of the quadratic risk function is found in dependence of weighting function. It is proved that the limit risk function does not depend on distributions. The extremum problem is solved, and an approximately unimprovable distribution-free estimator of the expectation vector is proposed.     

On Some Expectation and Derivative Operators Related to Integral Representations of Random Variables with Respect to a PII Process

Given a process with independent increments X (not necessarily a martingale) and a large class of square integrable r.v. H = f(X _T ), f being the Fourier transform of a finite measure μ, we provide a direct expression for Kunita-Watanabe and Föllmer-Schweizer decompositions of H. The representation is expressed by means of two significant maps: the expectation and derivative operators related to the characteristics of X. We also evaluate the expression for the variance optimal error when hedging the claim H with underlying process X. Those questions are motivated by finding the solution of the celebrated problem of global and local quadratic risk minimization in mathematical finance.     

带交易费用的无限期资产市场预期均衡的存在性

本文通过一个简单的模型证明了带交易费用的无限期资产经济预期均衡存在性，所用条件与已有文献相比更加简明     

EXISTENCE OF EXPECTATION EQUILIBRIUM OF REAL ASSET ECONOMIES WITH TRANSACTION COSTS

Abstract. To some two period economies with countable infinite state spaces, the existence of expectation equilibrium of real asset economies with transaction costs is given. This work extends the researches of Zame in 1993.     

第三类模糊事件的模糊概率

研究第三类模糊概率--模糊事件模糊概率的数学描述.在区间概率和第二类模糊概率的基础上,进一步给出了第三类离散型模糊概率的随机变量及其模糊分布函数和模糊分布列的定义和性质以及数字特征,并研究了连续型模糊概率随机变量的模糊数学期望和模糊方差的定义,进一步完善了模糊概率理论.     

Data-Recursive Smoother Formulae for Partially Observed Discrete-Time Markov Chains

Abstract

We address a dynamic portfolio optimization problem where the expected utility from terminal wealth has to be maximized. The special feature of this paper is an additional constraint on the portfolio strategy modeling bounded shortfall risks, which are measured by value at risk or expected loss. Using a continuous-time model of a complete financial market and applying martingale methods, analytic expressions for the optimal terminal wealth and the optimal portfolio strategies are given. Finally, some numerical results are presented.     

Role Analysis in Networks Using Mixtures of Exponential Random Graph Models

This article introduces a novel and flexible framework for investigating the roles of actors within a network. Particular interest is in roles as defined by local network connectivity patterns, identified using the ego-networks extracted from the network. A mixture of exponential-family random graph models (ERGM) is developed for these ego-networks to cluster the nodes into roles. We refer to this model as the ego-ERGM. An expectation-maximization algorithm is developed to infer the unobserved cluster assignments and to estimate the mixture model parameters using a maximum pseudo-likelihood approximation. We demonstrate the flexibility and utility of the method using examples of simulated and real networks.     

模糊均衡问题的求解及应用

根据实际均衡问题研究的需要,给出了模糊向量、模糊值函数、模糊矩阵等新概念,建立了模糊均衡问题的数学模型,即模糊线性互补问题。在引入新的模糊期望的基础上,研究了其性质,并据此给出了模糊线性互补问题的一种确定型等价式及此类问题的均衡解的概念。用实例说明了所提模型和方法的合理性及应用前景。