具有时滞响应的择好期权定价

假设市场是完备的,在文中使用了计价单位变换,等价鞅测度理论和无套利原理研究了股票价格具有时滞的欧式择好期权,得到了欧式择好期权的定价公式和对冲交易策略。     

国内外期铜价格之间的长期记忆成分和短期波动溢出效应

本文区分国内外期铜市场价格的长记忆成分和短期波动溢出效应,采用信息共享模型和永久一瞬时模型分离出不同期铜市场价格间的长记忆成分,得到不同市场期铜价格对"隐含有效价格"的贡献度;而且,利用t分布的BEKK模型分析两个市场期铜价格的短期波动溢出.特别,我们在BEKK基础上定义了不同变量间的波动溢出项,对两个市场期铜价格的波动溢出进行了度量.根据测算结果,我们发现国内外期铜价格有着紧密的联系,无论在长期,还是在短期,国外市场期铜价格的影响力都较大.     

Hedging-based utility risk measure customized for individual investors

This paper proposes a hedging-based utility risk measure (HBU) customized for individual investors requiring a comprehensive risk assessment for financial products. We show that HBU is a convex risk measure and if the utility has constant relative risk aversion, HBU is coherent. Roughly speaking, HBU is the opposite of a generalized utility indifference price and it depends on claimants' utility and hedging instruments accessible to them. We present HBU's qualities and provide two examples, explaining HBU's relevance.     

中国东中西部城市房价波动的涟漪效应——以中国东中西部代表的九城市为例

针对中国东中西部城市房价波动的是否存在涟漪效应的问题,提出综合运用格兰杰因果检验、协整一体化及二阶段检验法,即弗里德曼非参数秩排序检验方法和商业周期定点分析方法来检验分析自2005年7月至2010年3月东中西九城市房屋销售价格的月度数据进行实证分析,结果表明:(1)认为中国九城市房价波动存在涟漪效应,可划分为三个层级:东部的上海、深圳、杭州为第一层级;中部的武汉、合肥、太原为第二层级;西部的成都、西安、兰州为第三层级。(2)房价波动的涟漪效应从东部城市开始,传向中部城市,最后向西部城市传递。结论为东部城市的房价波动为主要调控对象,关注中部城市房价,同时避免西部城市房价出现意外波动。建议为对各个层级城市的房价制定差别性的调控政策,能够更有效地对整个房价体系的波动进行控制。     

The non-Markovian approach to the valuation and hedging of European contingent claims on power with scaling spikes

We present and further develop a new approach to modeling power prices with spikes proposed earlier by the author. In contrast to other approaches, we model power prices with spikes as a non-Markovian stochastic process that allows for modeling spikes directly as self-reversing jumps. We show how this approach can be used to value European contingent claims on power with spikes as well as to value and dynamically hedge European contingent claims on forwards on power for power with spikes in a practically important special case of the scaling probability distribution for the magnitude of spikes.     

Optimal financing and dividend control of the insurance company with excess-of-loss reinsurance policy

In this paper, we consider an optimal financing and dividend control problem of an insurance company. The management of the insurance company controls the dividends payout, equity issuance and the excess-of-loss reinsurance policy. In our model, the dividends are assumed to be paid out continuously, which is of interest from the perspective of financial modeling. The objective is to find the strategy which maximizes the expected present values of the dividends payout minus the equity issuance up to the time of ruin. We solve the optimal control problem and identify the optimal strategy by constructing two categories of suboptimal control problems.     

货币政策对房地产价格影响的非对称性分析——基于LSTVAR模型

由经济学理论分析可知,货币政策对房地产价格的具有显著的影响.利用LM检验和LR检验得到,包含货币政策变量和房地产价格变量的VAR模型具有非线性特征,并构建了相应的LSTVAR模型.运用广义脉冲响应函数研究了货币供应量与利率变化对中国房地产价格动态影响的非对称性.     

An economic order quantity model with partial backordering and a special sale price

A constant unit purchase cost is one of the main assumptions in the classic economic order quantity model. In practice, suppliers sometimes offer special sale prices to stimulate sales or decrease inventories of certain items. In this paper we develop an EOQ model with a special sale price and partial backordering. We prove the convexity of the cost-reduction function if a special order is placed at the special sale price. A solution method is proposed and numerical examples are presented.     

基于空间统计分析的中国省域房地产价格差异研究

运用空间统计分析方法对我国其中31个省市1999-2006年商品房平均价格分布差异进行研究.商品房价格的空间自相关分析结果表明,中国省域商品房价格具有显著的空间自相关,而且这种趋势在逐年增强.Moran散点图和LISA分析结果显示,省域商品房价格存在明显的二元结构,高值集中在经济比较发达的东部沿海地区,低值聚集在经济相对比较落后、房地产开发起步较晚的西部地区,而且这种集聚特征1999年以来一直存在.     

Path integral for equities: Dynamic correlation and empirical analysis

This paper develops a model to describe the unequal time correlation between rate of returns of different stocks. A non-trivial fourth order derivative Lagrangian is defined to provide an unequal time propagator, which can be fitted to the market data. A calibration algorithm is designed to find the empirical parameters for this model and different de-noising methods are used to capture the signals concealed in the rate of return. The detailed results of this Gaussian model show that the different stocks can have strong correlation and the empirical unequal time correlator can be described by the model’s propagator. This preliminary study provides a novel model for the correlator of different instruments at different times.