城镇地价因素在旧城改造资金平衡过程中的作用及其政策性意义

本文在对旧城改造有关理论问题分析的基础上,系统地研究了旧城改造区地价评估方法及其在旧城改造资金平衡过程中的作用．并提出了实现旧城改造资金平衡的途径、原则和思路;并进一步阐述了城镇地价因素在旧城改造中的政策性意义     

基于SEM模型的轨道交通对住宅价格的空间效应——以杭州市为例

轨道交通是城市公共交通体系的重要组成部分,其规划建设对住宅价格具有很强的正外部性。基于特征价格理论,引入了空间经济计量学分析方法和模型,以杭州市轨道交通一至三期规划内的10条地铁线路和杭州市范围内2 393个住宅样本为研究对象,实证研究了轨道交通对周边住宅价格的空间效应,构建了相应的指标体系,并用SEM模型进行定量分析。研究结果表明：(1)构建的指标体系经空间误差模型拟合后对杭州市住宅价格具有较好的解释能力;(2)处于不同建设阶段的地铁线路和站点对住宅价格的空间效应差异明显;(3)地铁站点在不同区间范围内对住宅价格的空间效应不同;(4)杭州市已通车轨道交通站点在1 000~1 500 m内对住宅价格的影响较为显著。     

Generalized gradients,bid–ask spreads,and market equilibrium

Abstract

This paper considers economies in which each agent valuates various goods by own generalized gradients. Taken together and appropriately scaled, the latter determine bid–ask spreads. When all such spreads are nil, market equilibrium prevails. Crucial for the arguments is a money commodity which denominates agents' rates of exchange or substitution. Equilibrium obtains when rates coincide across agents. The results may facilitate detailed modelling of market micro-structure, direct deals, and agent-based computations.     

Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of sheep livestock prices in origin

The multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA) is used to verify whether or not the returns of time series of prices paid to farmers in original markets can be described by the multifractal approach. By way of example, 5 weekly time series of prices of different breeds, slaughter weight and market differentiation from 2000 to 2012 are analyzed. Results obtained from the multifractal parameters and multifractal spectra show that the price series of livestock products are of a multifractal nature. The Hurst exponent shows that these time series are stationary signals, some of which exhibit long memory (Merino milk-fed in Seville and Segureña paschal in Jaen), short memory (Merino paschal in Cordoba and Segureña milk-fed in Jaen) or even are close to an uncorrelated signals (Merino paschal in Seville). MF-DFA is able to discern the different underlying dynamics that play an important role in different types of sheep livestock markets, such as degree and source of multifractality. In addition, the main source of multifractality of these time series is due to the broadness of the probability function, instead of the long-range correlation properties between small and large fluctuations, which play a clearly secondary role.     

Hedging insurance books

Complex insurance risks typically have multiple exposures. If available, options on multiple underliers with a short maturity can be employed to hedge this exposure. More precisely, the present value of aggregate payouts is hedged using least squares, ask price minimization, and ask price minimization constrained to long only option positions. The proposed hedges are illustrated for hypothetical Variable Annuity contracts invested in the nine sector ETF’s of the US economy. We simulate the insurance accounts by simulating risk-neutrally the underliers by writing them as transformed correlated normals; the physical and risk-neutral evolution is taken in the variance gamma class as a simple example of a non-Gaussian limit law. The hedges arising from ask price minimization constrained to long only option positions delivers a least cost and most stable result.     

Testing for unit root bilinearity in the Brazilian stock market

In this paper a simple test for detecting bilinearity in a stochastic unit root process is used to test for the presence of nonlinear unit roots in Brazilian equity shares. The empirical evidence for a set of 53 individual stocks, after adjusting for GARCH effects, suggests that for more than 66%, the hypothesis of unit root bilinearity is accepted. Therefore, the dynamics of Brazilian share prices is in conformity with this type of nonlinearity. These nonlinearities in spot prices may emerge due to the sophistication of the derivatives market.     

Repeated games with asymmetric information and random price fluctuations at finance markets

This paper is concerned with multistage bidding models introduced in De Meyer and Moussa Saley (Int J Game Theory 31:285–319, 2002) to analyze the evolution of the price system at finance markets with asymmetric information. The repeated games are considered modelling the biddings with the admissible bids k/m, unlike the above mentioned paper, where arbitrary bids are allowed. It is shown that the sequence of values of n-step games is bounded from above and converges to the value of the game with infinite number of steps. The optimal strategies of infinite game generate a symmetric random walk of transaction prices over admissible bids with absorbing extreme points. The value of infinite game is equal to the expected duration of this random walk multiplied by the constant one-step gain of informed Player 1. This study was supported by the grant 04-06-80430 of Russian Foundation of Basic Research which is gratefully acknowledged. I am thankful to anonymous referees and to William Thomson for instructive and helpful remarks and comments.     

On nonlinear ill-posed inverse problems with applications to pricing of defaultable bonds and option pricing

This paper considers the estimation of an unknown function h that can be characterized as a solution to a nonlinear operator equation mapping between two infinite dimensional Hilbert spaces. The nonlinear operator is unknown but can be consistently estimated, and its inverse is discontinuous, rendering the problem ill-posed. We establish the consistency for the class of estimators that are regularized using general lower semicompact penalty functions. We derive the optimal convergence rates of the estimators under the Hilbert scale norms. We apply our results to two important problems in economics and finance: (1) estimating the parameters of the pricing kernel of defaultable bonds; (2) recovering the volatility surface implied by option prices allowing for measurement error in the option prices and numerical error in the computation of the operator. The first anther was supported by US National Science Foundation (Grant No. SES-0631613) and the Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics     

Pricing long-dated insurance contracts with stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility

We consider the pricing of long-dated insurance contracts under stochastic interest rates and stochastic volatility. In particular, we focus on the valuation of insurance options with long-term equity or foreign exchange exposures. Our modeling framework extends the stochastic volatility model of Schöbel and Zhu (1999) by including stochastic interest rates. Moreover, we allow all driving model factors to be instantaneously correlated with each other, i.e. we allow for a general correlation structure between the instantaneous interest rates, the volatilities and the underlying stock returns. As insurance products often incorporate long-term exposures, they are typically more sensitive to changes in the interest rates, volatility and currencies. Therefore, having the flexibility to correlate the underlying asset price with both the stochastic volatility and the stochastic interest rates, yields a realistic model which is of practical importance for the pricing and hedging of such long-term contracts. We show that European options, typically used for the calibration of the model to market prices, and forward starting options can be priced efficiently and in closed-form by means of Fourier inversion techniques. We extensively discuss the numerical implementation of these pricing formulas, allowing for a fast and accurate valuation of European and forward starting options. The model will be especially useful for the pricing and risk management of insurance contracts and other exotic derivatives involving long-term maturities.     

Shadow pricing of undesirable outputs in nonparametric analysis

For three decades a growing interest in the modeling of desirable and undesirable outputs has led to a theoretical and methodological debate in the nonparametric literature on production technology and efficiency. The first main discussion is about the way of modeling ‘bad/undesirables’ as inputs or outputs, or by transformation functions. The second debate concerns the implications of the weak disposability assumption in the modeling of bad outputs, in particular the possibility of assigning unexpected signs to shadow prices of bad outputs. In addition, we point out a current error in the modeling of weak disposability under a variable returns to scale technology. In this paper we introduce a hybrid model to ensure the economically meaningful jointness of good and bad outputs while constraining shadow prices of bad outputs to their expected sign. We argue that it is a sound compromise to model undesirable outputs with a meaningful primal/dual economic interpretation. Finally we propose an extension to define shadow prices for undesirable outputs following the Law of One Price (LoOP) rule.