On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks

Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost. Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php     

基于MATLAB的异步电动机线性化控制系统的仿真

从异步电动机在同步旋转坐标系下的状态方程出发，在一定的条件下，对其系数矩阵简化．推出异步电动机的线性化控制模型．并基于该模型得出异步电动机的线性化控制系统．以给定电机为例，对该模型的有效性、响应用MATLAB进行仿真分析．验证的结果说明上述模型具有实用价值．     

An inner product lemma

Given the operator product BA in which both A and B are symmetric positive‐definite operators, for which symmetric positive‐definite operators C is BA symmetric positive‐definite in the C inner product 〈x, y〉C? This question arises naturally in preconditioned iterative solution methods, and will be answered completely here. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Effective stability for generalized Hamiltonian systems

An effective stability result for generalized Hamiltonian systems is obtained by applying the simultaneous approximation technique due to Lochak. Among these systems, dimensions of action variables and angle variables might be distinct.     

Hybrid numerical—experimental approach for investigation of dynamics of microcantilever relay system

The time average holography measurements of the vibrating microelectromechanical switch (MEMS) were performed in this study. Experimental measurement results exhibit good agreement with computer generated holographic interferogram analysis. The validation of experimental investigations versus numerical analysis provides the necessary background to analyze the dynamical characteristics of micromechanical systems in virtual numerical environments. Direct application of fringe counting techniques for reconstruction of motion from time average holograms cannot be straightforward if the analyzed micromechanical systems contain motion limiters. Modifications of a classical time average holographic technique enable qualitative analysis of MEMS and can be applied for investigation of dynamical properties of much broader classes of MEMS systems.     

微分代数多项式系统的可解集

本文对一般微分代数方程给出了几类可解集的概念，并讨论了多项式微分代数方程的可解集，得到子多项式系统具有唯一解。特别是有多于一个的解的条件，并得到了低次多项式在一定意义下的充分必要条件。     

彩票发行方案的合理性评价

本文根据目前常见的彩票销售规则及相应的奖金设置方案，综合分析了高项奖奖金额和低项奖中奖率对彩民的吸引力等因素，将发行方案的合理性问题归结为发行方案对彩民的吸引力上，引入了表示彩民心理趋向的偏好系数，构造了吸引力函数，同时综合考虑了封顶值等因素，对现行常见的29种彩票发行方案进行了综合评价。     

Stationary entanglement between macroscopic mechanical oscillators

We show that the optomechanical coupling between an optical cavity mode and two movable cavity mirrors is able to entangle two different macroscopic oscillation modes of the mirrors. This continuous variable entanglement is maintained by the light bouncing between the mirrors and is robust against thermal noise. In fact, it could be experimentally demonstrated using present technology. Received 2 September 2002 / Received in final form 10 October 2002 Published online 7 January 2003     

A test problem for molecular dynamics integrators

We derive a test problem for evaluating the ability of time-steppingmethods to preserve the statistical properties of systems inmolecular dynamics. We consider a family of deterministic systemsconsisting of a finite number of particles interacting on acompact interval. The particles are given random initial conditionsand interact through instantaneous energy- and momentum-conservingcollisions. As the number of particles, the particle density,and the mean particle speed go to infinity, the trajectory ofa tracer particle is shown to converge to a stationary Gaussianstochastic process. We approximate this system by one describedby a system of ordinary differential equations and provide numericalevidence that it converges to the same stochastic process. Wesimulate the latter system with a variety of numerical integrators,including the symplectic Euler method, a fourth-order Runge-Kuttamethod, and an energyconserving step-and-project method. Weassess the methods' ability to recapture the system's limitingstatistics and observe that symplectic Euler performs significantlybetter than the others for comparable computational expense.