Bayesian inference for the power law process

The power law process has been used to model reliability growth, software reliability and the failure times of repairable systems. This article reviews and further develops Bayesian inference for such a process. The Bayesian approach provides a unified methodology for dealing with both time and failure truncated data. As well as looking at the posterior densities of the parameters of the power law process, inference for the expected number of failures and the probability of no failures in some given time interval is discussed. Aspects of the prediction problem are examined. The results are illustrated with two data examples.     

Chip-Firing Games on Directed Graphs

We consider the following (solitary) game: each node of a directed graph contains a pile of chips. A move consists of selecting a node with at least as many chips as its outdegree, and sending one chip along each outgoing edge to its neighbors. We extend to directed graphs several results on the undirected version obtained earlier by the authors, P. Shor, and G. Tardos, and we discuss some new topics such as periodicity, reachability, and probabilistic aspects.Among the new results specifically concerning digraphs, we relate the length of the shortest period of an infinite game to the length of the longest terminating game, and also to the access time of random walks on the same graph. These questions involve a study of the Laplace operator for directed graphs. We show that for many graphs, in particular for undirected graphs, the problem whether a given position of the chips can be reached from the initial position is polynomial time solvable.Finally, we show how the basic properties of the probabilistic abacus can be derived from our results.     

因素空间与概念内涵的表示

本文综合应用因素空间、信息系统和重于关系的方法,讨论了概念的内涵表示及其他有关问题。特别是,对在描述概念问题中不同于内涵和外延的第三种方法,即典型示范表示做了进一步的分析。     

动态模糊随机信息处理的数学方法

本文系统地概述了我们近年来提出的动态模糊随机信息处理的数学方法,内容包括模糊随机变量、模糊随机过程和模糊随机微分方程的基本解法等方面的基本概念、基本定义和某些重要的定理,以及动态系统的模糊随机响应与可靠性分析的方法等。这些方法是为我们研究工程实际问题的需要逐步发展起来的,对于处理某些类型的问题简便实用。     

一族Liouville可积的有限维Hamilton系统

本文生成了一族Liouville可积的Hamilton相流彼此可交换的有限维Hamilton系统,并且给出了一串对合的显式公共运动积分及其一组对合的显式生成元.     

表面粗糙度测量的磁光位相调制和锁相干涉

提出了一种表面粗糙度测量的新方法，该方法采用了微分偏振干涉的原理，利用由法拉第磁光调制器所组成的调制系统对偏振干涉光路的位相进行调制，利用锁相干涉原理对位相进行探测，该方法可实现无参考面快速非接触测量，在普通实验条件下，也可保持良好的稳定恶性循环 ，实验装置即可给出表面的轮廓又可给出其它统计数据，其横向分辨率为１．２μｍ纵向为２ｎｍ。     

杨氏弹性模量光学系统的调节

本文介绍了在杨氏弹性模量测定的实验中，光学系统的速调整。     

森林发展系统的一个非线性半离散模型

本文建立了森林发展系统的一类非线性林龄面积结构的半离散模型 ,并讨论了半离散系统解的存在唯一性 ,给出了线性半离散系统稳定的一些充分条件     

优化灰导数白化值的无偏灰色GM(1,1)模型

通过优化灰导数白化值 ,建立了无偏的 GM(1,1)模型 ,给出了估计模型参数的方法 ,证明了无偏GM(1,1)模型具有白指数律重合性 ,提出了新的预测公式 .实例分析表明 ,新方法提高了模型的精度 ,扩大了模型的适用范围 .     

年龄相关的种群扩散系统的最优分布控制

本文讨论年龄相关的种群扩散系统的最优分布控制 ,证明了最优分布控制的存在性 ,得到了分布控制为最优的充分必要条件及确定最优控制的最优性组 .