Stochastic analysis in life office management: applications to large annuity portfolios

The paper deals with the riskiness analysis for a large portfolio of life annuities. By means of the limiting distribution of the present value of the portfolio, in the first part of the paper a model for evaluating the investment and the projection risks is presented. In the second part, with regard to the investment risk's effects, the insolvency risk is measured considering the cumulative probability distribution function of the discounted average cost per policy. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Statistical inference for Vasicek-type model driven by Hermite processes

Let $Z$ denote a Hermite process of order $q\ge 1$ and self-similarity parameter $H\in (\frac{1}{2},1)$. This process is $H$-self-similar, has stationary increments and exhibits long-range dependence. When $q=1$, it corresponds to the fractional Brownian motion, whereas it is not Gaussian as soon as $q?2$. In this paper, we deal with a Vasicek-type model driven by $Z$, of the form $d{X}_t=a(b?X_t)dt+d{Z}_t$. Here, $a>0$ and $b\in \mathbb{R}$ are considered as unknown drift parameters. We provide estimators for $a$ and $b$ based on continuous-time observations. For all possible values of $H$ and $q$, we prove strong consistency and we analyze the asymptotic fluctuations.     

Thermalization of electron–positron plasma with quantum degeneracy

The non-equilibrium electron–positron–photon plasma thermalization process is studied using relativistic Boltzmann solver, taking into account quantum corrections both in non-relativistic and relativistic cases. Collision integrals are computed from exact QED matrix elements for all binary and triple interactions in the plasma. It is shown that in non-relativistic case (temperatures $k_{B}T\le 0.3m_e{c}^2$) binary interaction rates dominate over triple ones, resulting in establishment of the kinetic equilibrium prior to final relaxation towards the thermal equilibrium, in agreement with the previous studies. On the contrary, in relativistic case (final temperatures $k_{B}T\ge 0.3m_e{c}^2$) triple interaction rates are fast enough to prevent the establishment of kinetic equilibrium. It is shown that thermalization process strongly depends on quantum degeneracy in initial state, but does not depend on plasma composition.     

A non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck model for pricing wind power futures

The recent introduction of wind power futures written on the German wind power production index has brought with it new interesting challenges in terms of modelling and pricing. Some particularities of this product are the strong seasonal component embedded in the underlying, the fact that the wind index is bounded from both above and below and also that the futures are settled against a synthetically generated spot index. Here, we consider the non-Gaussian Ornstein–Uhlenbeck type processes proposed by Barndorff-Nielsen and Shephard in the context of modelling the wind power production index. We discuss the properties of the model and estimation of the model parameters. Further, the model allows for an analytical formula for pricing wind power futures. We provide an empirical study, where the model is calibrated to 37 years of German wind power production index that is synthetically generated assuming a constant level of installed capacity. Also, based on 1 year of observed prices for wind power futures with different delivery periods, we study the market price of risk. Generally, we find a negative risk premium whose magnitude decreases as the length of the delivery period increases. To further demonstrate the benefits of our proposed model, we address the pricing of European options written on wind power futures, which can be achieved through Fourier techniques.     

A Large Deviations Principle Related to the Strong Arc-Sine Law

We show a large deviations principle for the family of random variables when t+, where B=(B _u ,u0) is a standard linear Brownian motion.     

Stochastic Ornstein–Uhlenbeck Capacitors

We introduce and study a class of random capacitor systems which are both charged and discharged stochastically. A capacitor is fed by a random inflow with stationary and independent increments. Discharging occurs according to a Markovian rate which is linear in the capacitors level. The resulting capacitor dynamics are Markovian, stochastically cyclic, and regenerative. We coin these systems Lévy-charged Ornstein–Uhlenbeck capacitors. Various random quantities associated with these systems are analyzed, including: the time-to- discharge; the duration of the charging cycle; the trajectory and the peak height of the capacitor level during a charging cycle; and, the capacitors stationary equilibrium level. Furthermore, we show that there are sharp distinctions between these capacitor systems and corresponding standard Lévy-driven Ornstein–Uhlenbeck systems.     

On the Continuity of Pathwise Solutions to Langevin Equations in Infinite Dimensions

We fix a rich probability space (,F,P). Let (H,) be a separable Hilbert space and let be the canonical cylindrical Gaussian measure on H. Given any abstract Wiener space (H,B,) over H, and for every Hilbert–Schmidt operator T: HBH which is (|{}|,)-continuous, where |{}| stands for the (Gross-measurable) norm on B, we construct an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process : (,F,P)×[0,1](B,|{}|) as a pathwise solution of the following infinite-dimensional Langevin equation d _t =db _t +T( _t )dt with the initial data ₀=0, where b is a B-valued Brownian motion based on the abstract Wiener space (H,B,). The richness of the probability space (,F,P) then implies the following consequences: the probability space is independent of the abstract Wiener space (H,B,) (in the sense that (,F,P) does not depend on the choice of the Gross-measurable norm |{}|) and the space C _B consisting of all continuous B-valued functions on [0,1] is identical with the set of all paths of . Finally, we present a way to obtain pathwise continuous solutions :d _t =

Ergodic properties of anomalous diffusion processes

In this paper we study ergodic properties of some classes of anomalous diffusion processes. Using the recently developed measure of dependence called the Correlation Cascade, we derive a generalization of the classical Khinchin theorem. This result allows us to determine ergodic properties of Lévy-driven stochastic processes. Moreover, we analyze the asymptotic behavior of two different fractional Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes, both originating from subdiffusive dynamics. We show that only one of them is ergodic.     

Convergence of densities of some functionals of Gaussian processes

The aim of this paper is to establish the uniform convergence of the densities of a sequence of random variables, which are functionals of an underlying Gaussian process, to a normal density. Precise estimates for the uniform distance are derived by using the techniques of Malliavin calculus, combined with Stein?s method for normal approximation. We need to assume some non-degeneracy conditions. First, the study is focused on random variables in a fixed Wiener chaos, and later, the results are extended to the uniform convergence of the derivatives of the densities and to the case of random vectors in some fixed chaos, which are uniformly non-degenerate in the sense of Malliavin calculus. Explicit upper bounds for the uniform norm are obtained for random variables in the second Wiener chaos, and an application to the convergence of densities of the least square estimator for the drift parameter in Ornstein–Uhlenbeck processes is discussed.     

Optimizing bounds on security prices in incomplete markets. Does stochastic volatility specification matter?

We extend and generalize some results on bounding security prices under two stochastic volatility models that provide closed-form expressions for option prices. In detail, we compute analytical expressions for benchmark and standard good-deal bounds. For both models, our findings show that our benchmark results generate much tighter bounds. A deep analysis of the properties of option prices and bounds involving a sensitivity analysis and analytical derivation of Greeks for both option prices and bounds is also presented. These results provide strong practical applications taking into account the relevance of pricing and hedging strategies for traders, financial institutions, and risk managers.