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1.
On effectiveness of wiretap programs in mapping social networks 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Maksim Tsvetovat Kathleen M. Carley 《Computational & Mathematical Organization Theory》2007,13(1):63-87
Snowball sampling methods are known to be a biased toward highly connected actors and consequently produce core-periphery networks when these may not necessarily be present. This leads to a biased perception of the underlying network which can have negative policy consequences, as in the identification of terrorist networks. When snowball sampling is used, the potential overload of the information collection system is a distinct problem due to the exponential growth of the number of suspects to be monitored. In this paper, we focus on evaluating the effectiveness of a wiretapping program in terms of its ability to map the rapidly evolving networks within a covert organization. By running a series of simulation-based experiments, we are able to evaluate a broad spectrum of information gathering regimes based on a consistent set of criteria. We conclude by proposing a set of information gathering programs that achieve higher effectiveness then snowball sampling, and at a lower cost.
Maksim Tsvetovat is an Assistant Professor at the Center for Social Complexity and department of Public and International Affairs at George Mason University, Fairfax, VA. He received his Ph.D. from the Computation, Organizations and Society program in the School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University. His dissertation was centered on use of artificial intelligence techniques such as planning and semantic reasoning as a means of studying behavior and evolution of complex social networks, such as these of terrorist organizations. He received a Master of Science degree from University of Minnesota with a specialization in Artificial Intelligence and design of Multi-Agent Systems, and has also extensively studied organization theory and social science research methods. His research is centered on building high-fidelity simulations of social and organizational systems using concepts from distributed artificial intelligence and multi-agent systems. Other projects focus on social network analysis for mapping of internal corporate networks or study of covert and terrorist orgnaizations. Maksim’s vita and publications can be found on
Kathleen M. Carley is a professor in the School of Computer Science at Carnegie Mellon University and the director of the center for Compuational Analysis of Social and Organizational Systems (CASOS) which has over 25 members, both students and research staff. Her research combines cognitive science, social networks and computer science to address complex social and organizational problems. Her specific research areas are dynamic network analysis, computational social and organization theory, adaptation and evolution, text mining, and the impact of telecommunication technologies and policy on communication, information diffusion, disease contagion and response within and among groups particularly in disaster or crisis situations. She and her lab have developed infrastructure tools for analyzing large scale dynamic networks and various multi-agent simulation systems. The infrastructure tools include ORA, a statistical toolkit for analyzing and visualizing multi-dimensional networks. ORA results are organized into reports that meet various needs such as the management report, the mental model report, and the intelligence report. Another tool is AutoMap, a text-mining systems for extracting semantic networks from texts and then cross-classifying them using an organizational ontology into the underlying social, knowledge, resource and task networks. Her simulation models meld multi-agent technology with network dynamics and empirical data. Three of the large-scale multi-agent network models she and the CASOS group have developed in the counter-terrorism area are: BioWar a city-scale dynamic-network agent-based model for understanding the spread of disease and illness due to natural epidemics, chemical spills, and weaponized biological attacks; DyNet a model of the change in covert networks, naturally and in response to attacks, under varying levels of information uncertainty; and RTE a model for examining state failure and the escalation of conflict at the city, state, nation, and international as changes occur within and among red, blue, and green forces. She is the founding co-editor with Al. Wallace of the journal Computational Organization Theory and has co-edited several books and written over 100 articles in the computational organizations and dynamic network area. Her publications can be found at: http://www.casos.cs.cmu.edu/bios/carley/publications.php 相似文献
2.
Identifying sets of key players in a social network 总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3
A procedure is described for finding sets of key players in a social network. A key assumption is that the optimal selection
of key players depends on what they are needed for. Accordingly, two generic goals are articulated, called KPP-POS and KPP-NEG.
KPP-POS is defined as the identification of key players for the purpose of optimally diffusing something through the network
by using the key players as seeds. KPP-NEG is defined as the identification of key players for the purpose of disrupting or
fragmenting the network by removing the key nodes. It is found that off-the-shelf centrality measures are not optimal for
solving either generic problem, and therefore new measures are presented.
Stephen P. Borgatti is Professor of Organization Studies at the Carroll School of Management, Boston College. His research is focused on social
networks, social cognition and knowledge management. He is also interested in the application of social network analysis to
the solution of managerial problems. 相似文献
3.
Validation and verification of social processes within agent-based computational organization models 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
Levent Yilmaz 《Computational & Mathematical Organization Theory》2006,12(4):283-312
The use of simulation modeling in computational analysis of organizations is becoming a prominent approach in social science
research. However, relying on simulations to gain intuition about social phenomena has significant implications. While simulations
may give rise to interesting macro-level phenomena, and sometimes even mimic empirical data, the underlying micro and macro
level processes may be far from realistic. Yet, this realism may be important to infer results that are relevant to existing
theories of social systems and to policy making. Therefore, it is important to assess not only predictive capability but also
explanation accuracy of formal models in terms of the degree of realism reflected by the embedded processes. This paper presents
a process-centric perspective for the validation and verification (V&V) of agent-based computational organization models.
Following an overview of the role of V&V within the life cycle of a simulation study, emergent issues in agent-based organization
model V&V are outlined. The notion of social contract that facilitates capturing micro level processes among agents is introduced
to enable reasoning about the integrity and consistency of agent-based organization designs. Social contracts are shown to
enable modular compositional verification of interaction dynamics among peer agents. Two types of consistency are introduced:
horizontal and vertical consistency. It is argued that such local consistency analysis is necessary, but insufficient to validate
emergent macro processes within multi-agent organizations. As such, new formal validation metrics are introduced to substantiate
the operational validity of emergent macro-level behavior.
Levent Yilmaz is Assistant Professor of Computer Science and Engineering in the College of Engineering at Auburn University and co-founder
of the Auburn Modeling and Simulation Laboratory of the M&SNet. Dr. Yilmaz received his Ph.D. and M.S. degrees from Virginia
Polytechnic Institute and State University (Virginia Tech). His research interests are on advancing the theory and methodology
of simulation modeling, agent-directed simulation (to explore dynamics of socio-technical systems, organizations, and human/team
behavior), and education in simulation modeling. Dr. Yilmaz is a member of ACM, IEEE Computer Society, Society for Computer
Simulation International, and Upsilon Pi Epsilon. URL: http://www.eng.auburn.edu/~yilmaz 相似文献
4.
5.
We present a study of time-delay effects on a two-actor conflict model based on nonlinear differential equations. The state of each actor depends on its own state in isolation, its previous state, its inertia to change, the positive or negative feedback and a time delay in the state of the other actor. We use both theoretical and numerical approaches to characterize the evolution of the system for several values of time delays. We find that, under particular conditions, a time delay leads to the appearance of oscillations in the states of the actors. Besides, phase portraits for the trajectories are presented to illustrate the evolution of the system for different time delays. Finally, we discuss our results in the context of social conflict models. 相似文献
6.
Most existing social learning models assume that there is only one underlying true state. In this work, we consider a social learning model with multiple true states, in which agents in different groups receive different signal sequences generated by their corresponding underlying true states. Each agent updates his belief by combining his rational self-adjustment based on the external signals he received and the influence of his neighbors according to their communication. We observe chaotic oscillation in the belief evolution, which implies that neither true state could be learnt correctly by calculating the largest Lyapunov exponents and Hurst exponents. 相似文献
7.
Crime is the result of a rational distinctive balance between the benefits and costs of an illegal act. This idea was proposed by Becker more than forty years ago (Becker (1968) [1]). In this paper, we simulate a simple artificial society, in which agents earn fixed wages and can augment (or lose) wealth as a result of a successful (or not) act of crime. The probability of apprehension depends on the gravity of the crime, and the punishment takes the form of imprisonment and fines. We study the costs of the law enforcement system required for keeping crime within acceptable limits, and compare it with the harm produced by crime. A sharp phase transition is observed as a function of the probability of punishment, and this transition exhibits a clear hysteresis effect, suggesting that the cost of reversing a deteriorated situation might be much higher than that of maintaining a relatively low level of delinquency. Besides, we analyze economic consequences that arise from crimes under different scenarios of criminal activity and probabilities of apprehension. 相似文献
8.
9.
F. Slanina 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2008,61(2):225-240
Far-from-equilibrium models of interacting particles in one dimension
are used as a basis for modelling the stock-market
fluctuations. Particle types and their positions are interpreted as
buy and sel orders placed on a price axis in the order book. We
revisit some modifications of well-known models, starting with the
Bak-Paczuski-Shubik model. We look at the four decades old Stigler
model and investigate its variants. One of them is the simplified
version of the Genoa artificial market. The list of studied models is
completed by the models of Maslov and Daniels et al. Generically, in
all cases we
compare the return distribution, absolute return autocorrelation and
the value of the Hurst exponent. It turns out that none of the models
reproduces satisfactorily all the empirical data, but the most promising
candidates for further development are the Genoa artificial market and
the Maslov model with moderate order evaporation. 相似文献
10.
M. Porfiri E. M. Bollt D. J. Stilwell 《The European Physical Journal B - Condensed Matter and Complex Systems》2007,57(4):481-486
Opinion compromise models can give insight into how groups of individuals may either come to form
consensus or clusters of opinion groups, corresponding to parties. We consider models where randomly
selected individuals interact pairwise. If the opinions of the interacting agents are not within a certain confidence
threshold, the agents retain their own point of view. Otherwise, they constructively dialogue and smooth their
opinions. Persuasible agents are inclined to compromise with interacting individuals. Stubborn individuals slightly
modify their opinion during the interaction. Collective states for persuasible societies include extremist minorities,
which instead decline in stubborn societies. We derive a mean field approximation for the compromise model in stubborn
populations. Bifurcation and clustering analysis of this model compares favorably with Monte Carlo analysis found in
the literature. 相似文献