基于GARCH模型的石油价格变动模拟

石油是一种特殊的商品,是国家重要的战略物资,世界各国都十分重视其价格变动问题,因为油价变化会影响到各国经济发展,甚至国家安全。因此,本文采用GARCH模型,通过基于Gibbs抽样的MCMC方法分析了国际市场石油价格的分布特征,对石油价格波动的异方差特性进行描述和模拟,实证分析结果说明从石油价格波动序列峰度系数和平方价格波动序列自相关函数的描述来看,基于t分布的模型模拟效果优于基于正态分布的模型,这一结论反映了石油价格波动序列的分布特性。     

Mathematical models of innovation diffusion with stage structure

Mathematical models with stage structures are proposed to describe the process of awareness, evaluation and decision-making. First, a system of ordinary differential equations is presented that incorporates the awareness stage and the decision-making stage. If the adoption rate is bilinear and imitations are dominant, we find a threshold above which innovation diffusion is successful. Further, if the adoption rate has a higher nonlinearity, it is shown that there exist bistable equilibria and a region such that an innovation diffusion is successful inside and is unsuccessful outside. Secondly, a model with a time delay is proposed that includes an evaluation stage of a product. It is proved that the system exhibits stability switches. The bifurcation direction of equilibria is also discussed.     

Vasicek债券定价模型的推广形式

V asicek债券定价模型假定即期利率r(t)遵循O-U过程,利率的长期均值θ为一个常数.对此进行推广,假设θ遵循一个离散跳跃过程,跳跃的次数与幅度由中央银行根据物价指数确定,建立一个新的模型.运用Ito引理和无套利原理给出到期日价值为1的零息票债券的定价公式.     

η-Invariant and Flat Vector Bundles

Abstract We present an alternate definition of the mod Z component of the Atiyah-Patodi-Singer η invariant associated to (not necessary unitary) flat vector bundles, which identifies explicitly its real and imaginary parts. This is done by combining a deformation of flat connections introduced in a previous paper with the analytic continuation procedure appearing in the original article of Atiyah, Patodi and Singer. * Project supported by the Cheung-Kong Scholarship of the Ministry of Education of China and the 973 Project of the Ministry of Science and Technology of China. (Dedicated to the memory of Shiing-Shen Chern)     

Effects of Spatial Noncommutativity on Energy Spectrum of a Trapped Bose-Einstein Condensate

In noncommutative space, we examine the problem of a noninteracting and harmonically trapped BoseEinstein condensate, and derive a simple analytic expression for the effect of spatial noncommutativity on energy spectrum of the condensate. It indicates that the ground-state energy incorporating the spatial noncommutativity is reduced to a lower level, which depends upon the noncommutativity parameter θ. The gap between the noncommutative space and commutative one for the ground-state level of the condensate should be a signal of spatial noncommutativity.     

物质纯重力场部分的能量-动量张量研究

认为物质的质量(能量)存在形式可分为两部分，一部分是以纯物质形式存在的，另一部分是以纯重力场形式存在的.物质质量(能量)这两种形式各自对应着相应的能量 动量张量，物质总的能量-动量张量可表示为Tμν=T(Ⅰ)μν+T(Ⅱ)μν,这里，T(Ⅰ)μν，T（Ⅱ）μν分别代表物质纯物质部分和纯重力场部分的能量-动量张量.通过类比电磁理论，定义：ωμ≡-c2gμ0/g00,并引入一个反对称张量Dμν=ωμ/xν-ων/xμ，则物质纯重力场部分的能量-动量张量为T(Ⅱ)μν=(DμρDρν-gμνDαβDαβ/4 关键词： 能量-动量张量 纯重力场 重力场方程 标量重力势 矢量重力势     

上海基础房价相关指标及走势的分析与研究

基础房价的相关指标及其走势一直是大众关心的热门话题．本文通过对上海基础房价相关指标的分析，建立了市场房价走势的两个数学模型．模型一：在相关性分析的基础上利用主成分分析消除指标间的共线性，再用回归拟合房价模型并进行预测；模型二：在相关性分析的基础上利用核估计方法预测出房价．继呵对2005年下半年的房价走势进行了预测，得出的结果与实际情况相吻合．     

氢氟烃/烷烃二元混合物的气液相平衡

整理了已公开发表的氢氟烃(HFC)/烷烃(HC)二元混合物气液相平衡实验数据,对实验数据进行了热力学一致性检验。采用PR方程加van der Waals混合规则描述该类混合物的气液相平衡性质,优化得到了11种混合物的二元交互作用系数,经比较表明采用优化结果能够高精度再现气液相平衡实验数据,比k_(ij)取0的计算结果有很大改善.     

猪传染性胃肠炎病毒聚合酶基因反义RNA对病毒的抑制作用

通过PCR扩增出猪传染性胃肠炎病毒(TGEV)聚合酶部分片段,反向插入逆转录病毒表达载体pLXSN中,用脂质体法将重组质粒plxas-pol转染PA317细胞,经抗生素G418筛选出稳定的产毒细胞克隆,分别扩大培养后,取其上清液感染小鼠成纤维细胞NIH3T3,细胞克隆产生的重组病毒效价达9.0×105CFU/mL。用高效价假病毒感染IBRS2细胞,再经抗生素G418筛选,提取细胞克隆总RNA,经RT-PCR证明plxas-pol整合入IBRS2细胞。以TGEV感染IBRS2细胞和具有抗性的IBRS2细胞所产生的细胞病变为指标,证明该反义RNA对病毒有明显抑制作用,抑制率约为80%。用2×103和4×102TCID50/mL剂量的TGEV感染时,引起细胞死亡的时间分别为21 h和27 h,与对照组相比,抗性细胞系可明显延迟因病毒感染引起细胞死亡的时间。     

Non-Parametric Regression Methods

The nature of the financial time series is complex, continuous interchange of stochastic and deterministic regimes. Therefore, it is difficult to forecast with parametric techniques. Instead of parametric models, we propose three techniques and compare with each other. Neural networks and support vector regression (SVR) are two universally approximators. They are data-driven non parametric models. ARCH/GARCH models are also investigated. Our assumption is that the future value of Istanbul Stock Exchange 100 index daily return depends on the financial indicators although there is no known parametric model to explain this relationship. This relationship comes from the technical analysis. Comparison shows that the multi layer perceptron networks overperform the SVR and time series model (GARCH).