证券投资组合的风险与收益

本文利用概率统计原理对证券的投资组合能减轻所遇的风险作了讨论 ,并介绍了如何选择投资组合可使所遇风险达到最小     

Polling systems in heavy traffic: Exhaustiveness of service policies

We study the expected delay in cyclic polling models with general ‘branching-type’ service disciplines. For this class of models, which contains models with exhaustive and gated service as special cases, we obtain closed-form expressions for the expected delay under standard heavy-traffic scalings. We identify a single parameter associated with the service discipline at each queue, which we call the ‘exhaustiveness’. We show that the scaled expected delay figures depend on the service policies at the queues only through the exhaustiveness of each of the service disciplines. This implies that the influence of different service disciplines, but with the same exhaustiveness, on the expected delays at the queues becomes the same when the system reaches saturation. This observation leads to a new classification of the service disciplines. In addition, we show monotonicity of the scaled expected delays with respect to the exhaustiveness of the service disciplines. This induces a complete ordering in terms of efficiency of the service disciplines. The results also lead to new rules for optimization of the system performance with respect to the service disciplines at the queues. Further, the exact asymptotic results suggest simple expected waiting-time approximations for polling models in heavy traffic. Numerical experiments show that the accuracy of the approximations is excellent for practical heavy-traffic scenarios. This revised version was published online in June 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Monitoring the packet gap of real-time packet traffic

Real-time packet traffic is characterized by a strict deadline on the end-to-end time delay and an upper bound on the information loss. Due to the high correlation among consecutive packets, the individual packet loss does not well characterize the performance of real-time packet sessions. An additional measure of packet loss is necessary to adequately assess the quality of each real-time connection. The additional measure considered here is the average number of consecutively lost packets, also called the average packet gap. We derive a closed form for the average packet gap for the multiclassG/G/m/B queueing system in equilibrium and show that it only depends on the loss behavior of two consecutive packets. This result considerably simplifies the monitoring process of real-time packet traffic sessions. If the packet loss process is markovian, the consecutive packet loss has a geometric distribution.     

创业投资与金融体系关系的实证研究

本文实证研究了创业投资产业与金融体系的内在关系,并对目前我国以银行为中心的金融体系下发展创业投资产业提出了一些建议.     

Phase Transitions in Traffic Models

It is suggested that the question of existence of a jamming phase transition in a broad class of single-lane cellular-automaton traffic models may be studied using a correspondence to the asymmetric chipping model. In models where such correspondence is applicable, jamming phase transition does not take place. Rather, the system exhibits a smooth crossover between free-flow and jammed states, as the car density is increased.     

流量管理中信息重发问题的研究

信息重发在通信网络中广泛存在。通过对信息重发问题的研究，建立了概率模型，分析了信息到达流的各种性质，得到了到达间隔时间的分布及平均到达速率等重要性能指标，利用数值实验对理论结论进行了验证。所得结果对网络流量管理和拥塞控制有一定的参考价值。     

Asymptotic analysis of a large closed queueing network with discriminatory processor sharing

In this paper the steady-state behavior of a closed queueing network with multiple classes and large populations is investigated. One of the two nodes of the network simply introduces random delays and the discipline in the other node is discriminatory processor sharing. The network is not product-form, so not even the steady-state behavior is known. We assume that the usage is moderately heavy, and obtain two-term asymptotic approximations to the mean number of jobs, and the mean sojourn time, of each class of jobs in the processor node. We also obtain the leading term in the asymptotic approximation to the joint distribution of the number of jobs in the processor node, which is a zero-mean multivariate Gaussian distribution around a line through the origin.     

平衡规划问题的熵函数方法及其在混合交通流中的应用

将参变极值问题的极大熵函数方法应用到求解平衡规划问题中,通过先验分布信息和Kullback熵概念,给出了平衡规划问题基于Kullback熵表示的熵函数求解方法,并将平衡规划的极大熵函数方法应用于求解混合交通平衡分配问题．     

Vehicle density and velocity estimation on highways for on-ramp metering control

A scheme for vehicle density and velocity estimation in a stretch of highway based on a modified cell transmission model [C. F. Daganzo, Transportation Research, Part B, 28B(4),269–287, 1994. Elsevier is presented. The scheme is intended for use with on-ramp metering control algorithms, providing local knowledge of densities and velocities that is helpful to improve on-ramp metering control performance. Estimation of density is obtained by nonlinear estimators, while velocity estimation is obtained by gradient algorithms. There is one density–velocity estimator for free traffic flow and other for congested traffic flow. Both estimator schemes work in parallel. The final estimation of density and velocity results from a convex combination of the predictions of the two estimators. This combination depends on occupancy or density measurements at the boundaries of the stretch and is produced by a fuzzy inference system. Stability and convergence of the density and velocity estimation scheme is proved by Lyapunov based techniques. Simulation results comparing measured and estimated traffic data are presented. They confirm good performance of the estimators. Research sponsored by grants UNAM PAPIIT IN110403 and CONACYT 47583.     

Optimal Investment Strategies for an Insurer with SAHARA Utility

In this paper, we consider the optimal investment strategy which maximizes the utility of the terminal wealth of an insurer with SAHARA utility functions. This class of utility functions has non-monotone absolute risk aversion, which is more flexible than the CARA and CRRA utility functions. In the case that the risk process is modeled as a Brownian motion and the stock process is modeled as a geometric Brownian motion, we get the closed-form solutions for our problem by the martingale method for both the constant threshold and when the threshold evolves dynamically according to a specific process. Finally, we show that the optimal strategy is state-dependent.