Organizational decision support systems: Centralized support for decentralized organizations

Organizations are becoming increasingly decentralized in their operations and decision making. Advanced information technologies provide the glue that holds such organizations together and facilitates their operations. Organizational decision support systems (ODSSs) provide mechanisms for ensuring that the decisions being made throughout such organizations are consistent with each other and with the overall organization goals. Through means of an ODSS, information and guidance is automatically passed from higher levels to lower levels for use in decision-making models.     

Approximate scenario solutions in the progressive hedging algorithm

This paper describes how the scenario aggregation principle can be combined with approximate solutions of the individual scenario problems, resulting in a computationally efficient algorithm where two individual Lagrangian-based procedures are merged into one. Computational results are given for an example from fisheries management. Numerical experiments indicate that only crude scenario solutions are needed.     

On stopped decision processes with discrete time parameter

A non-stationary stopped decision process is investigated under rather weak convergence assumptions on the expected total rewards. Sufficient conditions are given for the approximation of the maximal conditional expected rewards from infinite stage play by the maximal conditional expected rewards from finite stage play. General criteria of optimality are derived. The results are essentially based on two lemmas given in this paper. The existence of optimal plans is established using results of non-stationary dynamic programming.     

Decision and forecast horizons,agreeable plans,and the maximum principle for infinite horizon control problems

This paper establishes a link between the concepts of optimality used in economic theory for infinite horizon planning models, and the concepts of decision and forecast horizons used in several areas of Management Science. It is shown that decision and forecast horizons induce an alternate definition of optimality which is stronger than the concept of ‘agreeable plan’ proposed by Hammond. All concepts of optimality share a common property, namely a Principle of Optimality. In an optimal control framework this implies that the maximum principle will be a necessary condition for optimality according to any of these definitions.     

Decision theoretic analysis of pollutant emission monitoring procedures

A decision theoretic problem is considered which arises in the context of monitoring point sources of pollution: The management of an industrial plant may be authorized to release per unit time some amount of pollutants into the environment, for example air or water. An environmental agency may control, i.e. decide with the help of randomly sampled measurements, whether or not the real releases are larger than the permitted ones. The analysis of the problem of determining the best inspection procedure is performed with the help of a non-cooperative two-person game and can be constructed as follows: For a given value of the false alarm probability, only a zero-sum game has to be considered, where the probability of detecting illegal behavior is the payoff to the inspector. The solution of this game, i.e. the best inspection procedure, is then determined by use of the Neyman-Pearson Lemma.     

An intelligent decision support system for assisting industrial wastewater management

Sustainable economic development requires the inclusion of environmental factors in the decision making procedure. The generic objective of the Environmentally Sensitive Investment System (ESIS) Project is to provide industry and governmental departments or agencies with a tool to assess the technical and economic implications of capital-intensive projects, in response to stated environmental policies. More specifically, the ESIS prototype helps to find wastewater management alternatives that meet given environmental regulatory standards in a technologically sound and cost-efficient manner. The use of this decision support system will enhance the ability of managers and planners to explore the quantitative implications of a wide range of options. ESIS incorporates a combination of artificial intelligence and operations research techniques, database management and visualization tools, integrated under a graphical user interface. The ESIS prototype runs on top-of-the-line personal computers.     

Aircraft control for flight in an uncertain environment: Takeoff in windshear

The design of the control of an aircraft encountering windshear after takeoff is treated as a problem of stabilizing the climb rate about a desired value of the climb rate. The resulting controller is a feedback one utilizing only climb rate information. Its robustness vis-a-vis windshear structure and intensity is illustrated via simulations employing four different windshear models.Notations ARL aircraft reference line - D drag force, lb - g gravitational force per unit mass=const, ft sec^–2 - h vertical coordinate of aircraft center of mass (altitude), ft - L lift force, lb - m aircraft mass=const, lb ft^–1 sec² - O mass center of aircraft - S reference surface, ft² - t time, sec - T thrust force, lb - V aircraft speed relative to wind-based reference frame, ft sec^–1 - V _e aircraft speed relative to ground, ft sec^–1 - W _x horizontal component of wind velocity, ft sec^–1 - W _h vertical component of wind velocity, ft sec^–1 - x horizontal coordinate of aircraft center of mass, ft - relative angle of attack, rad - relative path inclination, rad - _e path inclination, rad - thrust inclination, rad - air density=const, lb ft² sec² Dot denotes time derivative.     

Multi-criteria decision making in micellar liquid chromatographic separation of chlorophenols

Simultaneous optimization of separation quality and analysis time of the micellar liquid chromatography of nine chlorophenol isomers was investigated. The effect on retention of three experimental parameters was studied using multivariate analysis. The factors studied were the concentration of sodium dodecyl sulfate, propanol content, and pH of the mobile phase. The experiments were performed according to the face-centered cube central composite design and the inverse form of the experimental retention times of analytes was fitted to polynomial models. The results of the analysis of variance showed that the models obtained explain over 99% of the variance observed in the chromatograms. The good predictive ability of the models was verified by high correlation coefficient (R2 > 0.99) and F ratio values for the plots of predicted cross-validated versus experimental retention times. The study showed that the use of the Pareto-Optimality method, an approach from multi-criteria decision making, allows selection of the best possible combinations of separation quality and analysis time in micellar liquid chromatography of chlorophenols.     

炸药爆轰产物Jones-Wilkins-Lee状态方程不确定参数

Jones-Wilkins-Lee (JWL)状态方程是一种不显含化学反应、由实验方法确定参数的半经验状态方程, 能比较精确地描述爆轰产物的膨胀驱动做功过程. 在JWL状态方程中有多个未知(不确定)参数需要确定. 传统的确定JWL状态方程参数的方法是“调参数”, 人为因素影响较大, 无法给出参数的不确定性信息. 本文利用贝叶斯分析方法研究了炸药的不确定参数, 该方法能够基于以往的认识、实验和模拟数据标定(calibration)不确定参数. 在本文结果中, 不确定参数的后验分布均值与文献结果相符合, 基于参数标定结果的数值模拟90%置信区间完全包含实验数据. 数值标定结果说明贝叶斯参数标定适用于确定样品炸药的JWL状态方程参数. 特别是, 在本文JWL状态方程参数标定过程中极大地减少了人为因素的影响.     

具有质量安全惩罚主导权零售商与供应商的食品安全检测决策

针对食品质量安全检测问题,建立了一个供应商与一个具有质量安全惩罚主导权零售商关于质量安全检测水平的优化模型,分析了他们各自独立与合作一体化模式下的质量安全检测水平决策,重点探讨了零售商对供应商的质量安全惩罚额对双方检测水平决策的影响.结果表明:当零售商对供应商的惩罚额较高时,供应商与零售商的质量安全检测水平都会随着惩罚额的增加而提高等主要结论.最后,为加强我国食品质量安全检测提供了对策.