Analytic hierarchy based policy design method (AHPo) for solving societal problems that require a multifaceted approach

This paper proposes an AHP based statistical method for the design of a comprehensive policy alternative, AHPo, for solving societal problems that require a multifaceted approach. In the proposed method, criteria relevant to the goal or focus are structured in the same way as in the conventional AHP. However, these two methods are quite different in regard to the method of quantification. The new method predicts or analyses the impact of the policy alternatives on the overall goal. In other words, it predicts or rationalizes the way people appreciate the situation in which an alternative is adopted and implemented. It will serve as a tool for supporting (especially political) decision making.     

面向制造成本甄别和销售努力激励的供应链协调契约研究

针对二级供应链中制造商隐藏成本信息和销售商隐藏努力行动引发的低效率问题, 结合委托代理理论, 引入一个虚拟第三方为利他的 委托人, 建立逆向选择和道德风险下供应链协调模型, 来甄别制造商的真实成本且对销售商的努力实施有效激励, 并通过模型求解得到供应链实现协调时各契约参数需满足的关系. 结果表明, 所设计的协调契约能够激励制造商自愿真实上报成本信息, 刺激销售商寻求低成本的制造商进行合作并付出最优努力. 最后, 通过算例分析验证了契约模型对供应链协调的有效性.     

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??In survival analysis, most existing approaches for analysing right-censored failure time data assume that the censoring time is independent of the failure time. However, investigators often face problems involving dependent censoring, i.e., failure time and censoring time are possibly dependent and they may be censored one another, especially in clinical trials. Without accounting for such dependence, survival distributions cannot be estimated consistently. Numerous attempts to model this dependence have been made. Among them, copula models are of particular interest because of their simple structure. Proportional hazard model analysis for informative right-censored data has been discussed in this paper. An Archimedean copula is assumed for the joint distribution function of failure time and censoring time variables. Under the conditions of identifiability of the parameter of the Archimedean copula, the maximum likelihood estimators of the parameter of Archimedean copula, the parameters and the cumulative hazard function of PH model are worked out. Extensive simulation studies show that the feasibility of the proposed method and the consistency of the estimators.     

Inequalities for a distribution with monotone hazard rate

Summary LetX be a positive random variable with the survival function and the densityf. LetX have the moments μ=E(X) and μ₂=E(X ²) and put ε=|1-μ₂/2μ²|. Put and . It is proved that the following inequalities hold: , for allx>0, ifq(x) is monotone and that , ifq ₁ (x) is monotone. It is also shown that Brown's inequality which holds wheneverq ₁ (x) is increasing is not valid in general whenq ₁ is decreasing. The Institute of Statistical Mathematics     

随机截断下分布函数的光滑PL 估计

本文在随机左截断情形下, 对非参数光滑PL 估计Fn , 光滑PL 过程n(Fn -F)用光滑经验过程加上一个可忽略的余项来一致地表示.把文献[ 8] 的结果加以改进, 使其表示形式在统计意义上更为直观.并得到光滑PL 过程的重对数律.     

Thermal hazard analysis of hydrazine and nitric acid mixtures

Summary In order to obtain a better understanding of the thermal hazard of hydrazine and nitric acid mixtures which are used in PUREX (Plutonium and Uranium Recovery by Extraction) process during recycling of spent fuel in nuclear plant, DSC and small scale reaction calorimetry super-CRC were carried out for the mixtures in various conditions. From the DSC analysis the apparent activation energy of hydrazine monohydrate in SUS 303 crucible was determined to be 96 kJ mol^-1. The mixing hazard of hydrazine monohydrate with nitric acid was measured with super-CRC and the results suggested that the concentration and the mass of nitric acid had a strong influence on the mixing heat of reaction of the system.     

Generalized mixtures in reliability modelling: Applications to the construction of bathtub shaped hazard models and the study of systems

In this paper, we obtain and discuss some general properties of hazard rate (HR) functions constructed via generalized mixtures of two members. These results are applied to determine the shape of generalized mixtures of an increasing hazard rate (IHR) model and an exponential model. In addition, we note that these kind of generalized mixtures can be used to construct bathtub‐shaped HR models. As examples, we study in detail two cases: when the IHR model chosen is a linear HR function and when the IHR model is the extended exponential‐geometric distribution. Finally, we apply the results and show the utility of generalized mixtures in determining the shape of the HR function of different systems, such as mixed systems or consecutive k‐out‐of‐n systems. Copyright © 2008 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

次临界系统处理钚及高放锕系元素的概念研究

对加速器驱动的次临界反应堆处理反应堆级钚和高放锕系废物进行了概念性设计的研究 .建立了以液态铋系合金金属为载热剂的次临界堆芯模型 ,利用 ADVBISON程序对该问题进行了数值计算 ,得到了满意的中子学、燃耗和放射性衰变等结果.Disposition of the reactor plutonium and high level actinides by using accelerator driven subcritical reactor was studied theoretically and the corresponding core model using liquid Bi alloy as the reactor coolant was proposed. The satisfied numerical results of neutronics, burn up and radioactivity were obtained by the ADVBISON code.     

On allocation of redundancies in two-component series systems

Allocation of active [standby] redundancies in a system is a topic of great interest in reliability engineering and system safety because optimal configurations can significantly increase the reliability of a system. In this paper, we study the problem of allocating two exponentially distributed active [standby] redundancies in a two-component series system using the tools of stochastic ordering. We establish two interesting results on likelihood ratio ordering which have no restriction on the parameters.