AN ENCOMPASSING APPROACH TO MODELING FISHERY DYNAMICS: MODELING DYNAMIC NONLINEAR SYSTEMS

Uncertainty about the nature and significance of nonlinearities and the manner in which dynamics affect future realizations makes model specification the most difficult aspect of modeling dynamic systems. By interpreting several popular fishery models as subcases of a nesting dynamic Taylor series approximation, we isolate the specification differences between these models in a way that accounts for commonalities. On the argument that the differences due to alternative nonlinear forms are likely to be small compared to more mundane considerations such as delay difference and general dynamic lag specification, we propose an alternative model that uses the terms from the first order approximation common to all models combined with a data-based determination of the appropriate lags using the methods of state space time series analysis. Finally, the success of the alternative models is judged in an application to Pacific halibut data.     

HL－1装置辅助加热等对能量约束的影响

在ＨＬ－１托卡马克上进行了辅助加热、加料、电流驱动的物理实验研究。在改善等离子体约束方面，某些实验取得了较好的结果。在适当的稳定放电条件下，低杂波电流驱动和弹丸注入辅助加料，均能使等离子体能量约束得到一定程度的改善，与相同密度条件下的欧姆加热放电相比，能量约束时间提高了约３０％。在电子回旋共振加热等离子体实验中，等离子体总能量明显增加，但与相同密度条件下的欧姆加热放电相比，能量约束时间减少了约２０％。     

KNbO3：Fe晶体的时间微分效应及图像追踪

本文观察到了KNbO_3:Fe晶体的时间微分效应,并用这个微分效应进行了图像追踪的演示,为KNbO_3:Fe晶体在光折变器件领域的应用进行了有益的探索。     

关于双重时序AR-MA模型的相关结构及与ARMA模型的比较

本文在文［４］的基础上讨论了双重时序ＡＲ（１）－ＭＡ（ｑ）模型的相关结构，在不假定白噪声序列为正态的情况下，证明了安鸿志［２］关于模型的相关结构的猜想是正确的，具体地构造了ＡＲ（１）－ＭＡ（３）模型的相关结构，并与ＡＲＭＡ模型进行了初步的比较，给出了一些抛砖引玉的讨论．     

狭义相对论效应──运动时钟变慢的计算机模拟演示实验

利用精炼的C语言进行程序设计，定量模拟狭义相结论的运动时钟变慢，并对处于两种不同时空观的时钟运行进行对比，使得时间膨胀效应变得直观。     

AN ESTIMATE ON THE DISTRIBUTION AND MOMENTS OF THE LAST EXIT TIME OF AN ELLIPTIC DIFFUSION PROCESS

Let LB be the last exit time from a compact set B of an elliptic diffusion process X. A moderate estimate for the distribution of LB is obtained, and the sufficient and necessary condition for Ex(LBk)<∞is proved.     

The Spirit Is Willing: Nonlinearity, Bifurcations, and Mental Control

In recent years there has been considerable interest in the construction of nonlinear models of the dynamics of human behavior. In this exploratory article we argue that attempts at controlling problematic thoughts, emotions, or behaviors can lead to nonlinearity in mental/behavioral dynamics. We illustrate our model by fitting threshold autoregression models to self-recorded time series of the daily highs in intensity of anxiety and obsessive ruminations, kept by an individual in therapy for this problem. In our discussion, we raise the possibility that bifurcations that occur in this nonlinear model may offer insight into mental control paradoxes.     

Carleson测度与Bloch的刻画

在文中，对于C^n中有界强拟凸域。我们得到Carleson测度，消没Carleson测度的刻画。利用Carleson测度，我们还得到Bloch，小Bloch的刻画。     

Electrical properties of polypyrrole/p‐InP structure

The polypyrrole/p‐InP structure has been fabricated by the electrochemical polymerization of the organic polypyrrole onto the p‐InP substrate. The current–voltage (I–V), capacitance–voltage (C–V), and capacitance–frequency (C–f) characteristics of the PPy/p‐InP structure have been determined at room temperature. The structure showed nonideal I–V behavior with the ideality factor and the barrier height 1.48 and 0.69 eV respectively. C–f measurements of the structure have been carried out using the Schottky capacitance spectroscopy technique and it has been seen that there is a good agreement between the experimental and theoretical values. Also, it has been seen that capacitance almost show a plateau up to a certain value of frequency, after which, the capacitance decreases. The higher values of capacitance at low frequencies were attributed to the excess capacitance resulting from the interface states in equilibrium with the p‐InP that can follow the a.c. signal. The interface state density N_ss and relaxation time τ of the structure were determined from C–f characteristics. © 2006 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Polym Sci Part B: Polym Phys 44: 1572–1579, 2006     

Asymptotic Properties of Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators for ARMA Models with Time-Dependent Coefficients

For about thirty years, time series models with time-dependent coefficients have sometimes been considered as an alternative to models with constant coefficients or non-linear models. Analysis based on models with time-dependent models has long suffered from the absence of an asymptotic theory except in very special cases. The purpose of this paper is to provide such a theory without using a locally stationary spectral representation and time rescaling. We consider autoregressive-moving average (ARMA) models with time-dependent coefficients and a heteroscedastic innovation process. The coefficients and the innovation variance are deterministic functions of time which depend on a finite number of parameters. These parameters are estimated by maximising the Gaussian likelihood function. Deriving conditions for consistency and asymptotic normality and obtaining the asymptotic covariance matrix are done using some assumptions on the functions of time in order to attenuate non-stationarity, mild assumptions for the distribution of the innovations, and also a kind of mixing condition. Theorems from the theory of martingales and mixtingales are used. Some simulation results are given and both theoretical and practical examples are treated. Received 2004; Final version 23 December 2004