Analysis of supply chains with quantity based fixed incentives

This paper examines the use of quantity based fixed incentives to coordinate inventory decisions in a decentralized supply chain. We consider a two stage supply chain of autonomous supplier and distributor and prove that the optimal ordering policy for the newsvendor distributor under fixed incentives is an (s,S)$(s\text{,}S)$ type policy. We further show that external and internal quantity based incentives can restore channel coordination in single period and channel members can benefit through arbitrary splitting of the resulting additional chain profit. The single period results are extended to multiple periods and the impact of fixed incentives on the distributor’s optimal stocking policy and channel efficiency are examined under three different multi-period supplier strategies. Numerical examples are used to compare the multi-period strategies and to provide additional managerial insights. The results show that contrary to common belief, incentive plans developed and maintained based only on current inventory data perform poorly in long term and that such incentive plans must be periodically updated to enhance their efficiency. Furthermore, we show that high level of incentives designed to push too much inventory downstream of the supply chain can actually reduce the chain’s efficiency.     

带负顾客和非空竭服务随机休假的M~([x])/G/1可修排队系统

研究了带负顾客和非空竭服务随机休假的M~([X])/G/1可修排队系统.负顾客不仅仅移除一个正在接受服务的正顾客,而且还使得服务器损坏而立即进行修理.通过构造一个具有吸收态的马尔可夫链求得了系统稳态存在的充分必要条件.利用补充变量法求得了系统的排队指标和可靠性指标.最后我们还给出了一个数值实例.     

制造商与两个具有竞争性的零售商的两阶段博弈模型

针对一个制造商和两个具有竞争性的零售商组成的供应链两阶段博弈模型.首先考虑下游零售商之间的Stackelberg博弈,然后又以整体最优讨论制造商为主导的Stackelberg博弈的两阶段博弈模型.数字实验结果表明:该策略不仅能提高制造商的利润,而且能改善销售商的利润,特别是对于供应链成员之间具有较高的竞争强度.     

财务供应链管理提高企业短期财务绩效的实证研究

近几年来,无论是理论界还是实务界,对供应链管理理念在企业短期财务管理中的应用日益关注.负营运资本管理和类金融模式即是两种典型的形式.对2001-2006年间实施后一年较前一年的79个供应链管理样本进行细分,分为物理供应链样本25个,财务供应链样本54个,运用单样本t检验、单样本位置参数的Wilcoxon符号秩检验和一般线性回归法来深入探究两类供应链管理之间的关系以及二者对企业财务绩效的影响有何差异.实证结果显示:在物理供应链样本中,产成品周转率和存货周转率在10%的水平上有了显著的提高,但并未转化为盈利指标的改善.在财务供应链样本中,营业利润率和净资产收益率在5%的水平上有了显著的提高,即看到了盈利指标的改善.财务供应链管理对业绩的影响更为直接.但回归分析的结果显示:实施类金融模式会阻碍营业利润率的提高.该文的研究结论在更深入的层面上揭示了两类供应链管理之间的关系,有利于提高对供应链管理对企业财务绩效影响机制的认识.     

基于需求和生产成本偏差的Cournot竞争供应链协调

分析一个供应商和两个Cournot竞争零售商组成的供应链系统的协调问题.首先证明收益共享合约在稳定条件下能实现该供应链协调;当突发事件导致零售商面临的需求规模和供应商的生产成本同时与其预测值发生偏差时,为使供应链收益最大,提出了调整生产计划和零售价格的协调策略,进一步证明了改进的收益共享合约可协调需求和成本偏差的分权供应链;最后进行了数值实验.     

股票价格的马氏链预测模型

本文探讨了马尔科夫链的预测技术,利用马氏链预测方法分析了申华控股(600653)价格的变动情况,对其价格进行短期预测和长期涨跌趋势、运动周期的预测,研究结果与实际情况比较一致。     

基于惩罚与补贴的再制造闭环供应链网络均衡模型

为研究我国废旧电子产品(WEEE)立法的问题,分析了供应商、制造商、零售商、需求市场及回收商的行为,分别建立了变分不等式模型,并在此基础上建立了五级再制造闭环供应链网络均衡模型。模型考虑了政府对于制造商的惩罚政策与对于回收商的补贴政策。通过修正投影算法求解算例,仿真分析了旧材料转化率、回收率、惩罚及补贴政策对闭环供应链网络均衡结果的影响。结果表明,随着政府对于回收商的补贴的增加,不但回收商的回收量提高,闭环供应链的新材料需求量、旧材料需求量、销售量均增加;相反,随着政府对于制造商未完成的回收量的罚款增加,回收量、新材料需求量、旧材料需求量、销售量均降低;追求高回收率的政策并不总是有效的;而提高WEEE的旧材料转化率对于闭环供应链有利。     

基于回购契约的风险厌恶零售商的供应链协调

研究了由风险中性的供应商和风险厌恶的零售商组成的二级供应链协调问题.零售商的风险厌恶由CVaR来度量,研究表明：零售商的风险厌恶加剧了双重边际效应,恶化了供应链效益.为了实现供应链的协调,供应商提出回购契约以减轻零售商的风险顾虑引导其增加订货量,结果表明：当零售商的风险厌恶超过了一定的程度,回购契约不能实现供应链协调;当供应链可以通过回购契约实现协调时,供应链的协调利益可以在供应商和零售商之间进行任意的分配,具体的分配结果取决于他们的讨价还价能力.     

Falling and explosive,dormant, and rising markets via multiple‐regime financial time series models

A multiple‐regime threshold nonlinear financial time series model, with a fat‐tailed error distribution, is discussed and Bayesian estimation and inference are considered. Furthermore, approximate Bayesian posterior model comparison among competing models with different numbers of regimes is considered which is effectively a test for the number of required regimes. An adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling scheme is designed, while importance sampling is employed to estimate Bayesian residuals for model diagnostic testing. Our modeling framework provides a parsimonious representation of well‐known stylized features of financial time series and facilitates statistical inference in the presence of high or explosive persistence and dynamic conditional volatility. We focus on the three‐regime case where the main feature of the model is to capturing of mean and volatility asymmetries in financial markets, while allowing an explosive volatility regime. A simulation study highlights the properties of our MCMC estimators and the accuracy and favourable performance as a model selection tool, compared with a deviance criterion, of the posterior model probability approximation method. An empirical study of eight international oil and gas markets provides strong support for the three‐regime model over its competitors, in most markets, in terms of model posterior probability and in showing three distinct regime behaviours: falling/explosive, dormant and rising markets. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Bayesian modeling of financial returns: A relationship between volatility and trading volume

The modified mixture model with Markov switching volatility specification is introduced to analyze the relationship between stock return volatility and trading volume. We propose to construct an algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation methods to estimate all the parameters in the model using a Bayesian approach. The series of returns and trading volume of the British Petroleum stock will be analyzed. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.