NORTHERN HEMISPHERIC SUMMER CLIMATIC JUMP IN THE 1960s (Ⅰ)——RAINFALL AND TEMPERATURE

With the conception of the climatic jump, the authors revealed the large-scale characteristics of the abrupt summer climatic change in the Northern Hemisphere in the 1960s. This paper concerns the change of the summer rainfall, air temperature and sea surface temperature in 1951—1980. There was a wide zone including North Africa, northwest India, central China and Japan where the rainfall decreased abruptly in the 1960s while two zones, respectively south and north of the drying zone, experienced increasing rainfall. The temperature decreased abruptly in most of the northern mid-high latitudinal regions and increased significantly in some of the lower-latitudinal regions, leading to a sudden enlarging of the equator-polar thermal difference. It was noted that the climatic jump seemed to occur asynchronously from one region to another.     

低空急流的加强对深厚西南低涡发展及稳定维持的作用

1998年7月下旬长江中下游发生罕见的特大洪涝灾害，分析认为低空急流在7月20日10Z突然加强，在四川盆地东北侧引起低层强辐合是西南低涡得以发展的重要原因；低空急流加强引起的低层强辐合产生的潜热释放，导致中层位涡的增加，使得低涡十分深厚，低空急流在21－23日的另两次加强在西南低涡的南部引起的低层强辐合，弥补了低涡由于低层摩擦引起的旋转减弱，使低涡长期稳定维持。     

基于模式误差分布特征的中国夏季旱涝预测可信度研究

基于美国气候预报中心组合降雨分析资料对国家气候中心海气耦合模式多年夏季降水预报误差进行统计分析,以揭示模式预报误差的分布规律及特征.研究发现,模式预报误差分布特征满足正态分布,基于误差分布特征分析模式对中国夏季降水的预测能力,通过误差分布的高斯拟合曲线特征对比模式预报与动力统计方法的预测技巧,进而得到动力统计方法改进误差分布特征的两种类型:1)变幅型改进;2)均值型改进.在此基础上,根据模式误差的统计特征提出了一种新的旱涝预测可信度计算方法,用于定量化地评估动力统计方法在不同地区的预测可信度大小,并应用于实际预测.最后以2012和2013年夏季降水为例,给出了实况、预测以及可信度检验.结果显示该方法能较好地反映出预测的不确定性,较其他检验方法更具针对性,对异常降水的预测可信度反映更为准确,验证了方法的有效性,可进一步提高动力统计方法的预测服务水平.     

季风与极涡的异常配置下中国夏季大尺度旱涝分布

从冷暖系统配置的角度,选取东亚夏季风(EASM)和7月亚洲区极涡面积(APVA),分析了二者的气候特征与中国夏季降水分布之间的关系.在此基础上,将1951—2010年EASM和APVA的异常配置分为四种类型:A:季风强、极涡大;B:季风强、极涡小;C:季风弱、极涡大;D:季风弱、极涡小.研究发现,二者的异常配置下,中国夏季大尺度旱涝分布在季尺度上表现出多面性特征:A型年,夏季整体偏旱;B型年,夏季南涝北旱;C型年,夏季北涝南旱;D型年,夏季整体偏涝.由此可见,中国夏季旱涝总体分布除了与EASM有关外还与APVA密切相关,二者异常的不同配置下,夏季降水多寡和旱涝分布表现出了显著的差异和规律性,这对夏季降水总体趋势预测有一定的指示意义.此外,通过研究不同配置关系对应大气环流异常特征,并分析不同要素在夏季风和极涡关系变化中的作用,发现不同配置类型下夏季降水表现出的差异和规律性直接取决于环流场的整体配置,其中西太副高和中高纬阻塞形势起主导作用.     

15N natural abundance of non-fixing woody species in the Brazilian dry forest (caatinga)

Foliar δ¹⁵N values are useful to calculate N₂ fixation and N losses from ecosystems. However, a definite pattern among vegetation types is not recognised and few data are available for semi-arid areas. We sampled four sites in the Brazilian caatinga, along a water availability gradient. Sites with lower annual rainfall (700 mm) but more uniform distribution (six months) had δ¹⁵N values of 9.4 and 10.1 ‰, among the highest already reported, and significantly greater than those (6.5 and 6.3 ‰) of sites with higher rainfall (800 mm) but less uniform distribution (three months). There were no significant differences at each site among species or between non-fixing legume and non-legume species, in spite of the higher N content of the first group. Therefore, they constitute ideal reference plants in estimations of legume N₂ fixation. The higher values could result from higher losses of ¹⁵N depleted gases or lower losses of enriched ¹⁵N material.     

Use of isotopes to study floodplain wetland and river flow interaction in the White Volta River basin,Ghana

Floodplain wetlands influence the timing and magnitude of stream responses to rainfall. In managing and sustaining the level of water resource usage in any river catchment as well as when modelling hydrological processes, it is essential that the role of floodplain wetlands in stream flows is recognised and understood. Existing studies on hydrology within the Volta River basin have not adequately represented the variability of wetland hydrological processes and their contribution to the sustenance of river flow. In order to quantify the extent of floodwater storage within riparian wetlands and their contribution to subsequent river discharges, a series of complementary studies were conducted by utilising stable isotopes, physical monitoring of groundwater levels and numerical modelling. The water samples were collected near Pwalugu on the White Volta River and at three wetland sites adjacent to the river using the grab sampling technique. These were analysed for ¹⁸O and ²H. The analysis provided an estimate of the contribution of pre-event water to overall stream flow. In addition, the variation in the isotopic composition in the river and wetland water samples, respectively, revealed the pattern of flow and exchange of water between the wetlands and the main river system.     

长江中下游地区暴雨"积成效应"

采用1960–2011年中国740站日降水观测数据, 以长江中下游地区为切入点, 提出暴雨"积成效应"这一概念, 旨在将暴雨这一天气尺度强降水过程拓展为类似中长期天气尺度过程来考虑, 研究它对季节尺度降水的贡献及影响. 通过统计分析从持续时间(L_d)、控制面积(A_r)、降水贡献率(Q_s) 等三个角度建立暴雨"积成效应"概念及判定标准, 并进一步结合上述指标建立暴雨"积成效应"强度指数. 从这一角度出发, 探讨长江中下游地区暴雨"积成效应"与夏季降水的时空对应关系, 发现强度指数与同期夏季降水量的年际和年代际变化具有很好的一致性; 强弱指数年合成分布以及指数与中国东部夏季降水相关系数的空间分布呈现出类似于中国东部夏季雨带的分布形式; 而利用EOF分解对暴雨"积成效应"空间范围分类, 发现其与该地区夏季降水具有相似的4种空间型, 总体而言, 长江中下游地区暴雨"积成效应"造成的降水极大地影响甚至决定整个夏季降水的多寡及空间分布. 关键词： 长江中下游 暴雨 "积成效应" 夏季降水     

江淮流域夏季降水对前冬持续时间长短的响应

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料计算得到江淮流域1961–2011年前冬持续时间, 分析其时空变化特征, 并进一步探究它与后期江淮流域夏季降水的关系. 结果表明, 江淮流域前冬持续时间存在着明显的年际和年代际变化, 前冬持续时间显著偏长年份比偏短年份的前冬温度低、气压高、北风强, 表明温度、气压、经向风可能是反映江淮流域前冬持续时间的关键因子, 且不同区域各气象要素对季节长度的影响存在一定差异; 1961–2011年江淮流域前冬持续时间与该区域夏季降水呈显著正相关关系; 统计分析亦发现, 前冬持续时间显著偏长(偏短)的代表年份中, 夏季降水以偏多(偏少)为主; 对典型代表年份环流场进行合成分析发现, 前冬持续时间显著偏长时, 乌拉尔山与鄂霍次克海地区夏季易形成阻塞形势, 进而会对江淮流域夏季降水产生影响; 最后利用奇异值分解从空间场相关的角度探讨了两者的联系, 发现江淮流域夏季降水与前冬持续时间存在非常显著的关系. 关键词： 江淮流域 季节划分 前冬持续时间 夏季降水     

Modelling Dependence Uncertainty in the Extremes of Markov Chains

General theory on the extremes of stationary processes leads only to a limited representation for extreme-state behaviour, usually summarised by the extremal index. In practice this means that other quantities such as the duration of extreme episodes or aggregate of threshold exceedances within a cluster require stronger model assumptions. In this paper we propose a model based on a Markov assumption for the underlying process, with high-level transitions determined by an asymptotically motivated distribution. This idea is not new: Smith et al. (1997) first developed the statistical basis for such a procedure, which was subsequently extended by Bortot and Tawn (1998) to better handle the case of weak extremal temporal dependence for which the extremal index is unity. We adopt similar procedures to each of these earlier works, but suggest a different model for the Markov transitions. The model we use was developed by Coles and Pauli (2002) to enable a Bayesian inference of multivariate extremes that provides a posterior distribution on the status of asymptotic independence. By adopting this model in the Markov framework, we show here that the model has all the flexibility of the model developed by Bortot and Tawn (1998), but with the additional advantage of providing a posterior probability on the extremal index and inferences that take full account of the uncertainty in the extremal index. We demonstrate the methodology on both simulated data and a time series of daily rainfall that exhibit weak temporal dependence at extreme levels.     

Approximation and estimation of some compound distributions

The distribution of the total amount claimed up to time t can often be written in the form of a compound distribution G_t(x) = Σp_n(t)F⁽ⁿ⁾(x) where p_n(t) is the probability of exactly n claims while F is the distribution of a single claim. In the actuarial literature one often finds approximations of G_t(x) when the time t is large. It seems more natural to take t fixed and to look for approximations for x large. This paper contains a number of such results for a Poisson process and for a Pascal process. Different hypotheses on the tail behaviour of F(t) yield different expressions to estimate 1 - G_t(x). The results obtained should prove to have wider applicability than suggested by the insurance context. Within it, however, applications to premium calculation principles are immediate.