需求弹性在价格决策中的应用

将着眼点由总收益改变为总利润,对于需求弹性用于价格决策,利用微积分方法,分5种情况进行推导,得到的结论修正和补充了现行"经济数学"、"市场营销学"和"管理经济学"等教科书里讲的内容,并在此基础上进一步研究了最佳调价量问题.     

An empirical re-examination of natural resource scarcity and economic growth

This paper is concerned with the effect of natural resource scarcity on economic growth in the United States. After defining the notion of scarcity and introducing two measures of scarcity—unit costs and relative resource price—changes in resource scarcity trends for lead, zinc, nickel, aluminium, silver, iron and copper over the most recent three decades are investigated. Only for silver and iron is there any indication that such a change has occurred. For silver, the change is transitory. To the extent that change takes place, it has implications for future economic growth, i.e. natural resource scarcity and economic growth are interrelated. To see whether this is a relevant concern, subsequent to the examination of changing resource scarcity trends an objective effort is made to identify a long-run equilibrium relationship between natural resource scarcity and economic growth. Relying on cointegration techniques, only for the unit cost measure for lead and copper for one of the measures of cointegration is there a suggestion that natural resource scarcity has affected economic growth in the United States over the period 1889–1992.     

Applying Hybrid ARIMA-SGARCH in Algorithmic Investment Strategies on S&P500 Index

This research aims to compare the performance of ARIMA as a linear model with that of the combination of ARIMA and GARCH family models to forecast S&P500 log returns in order to construct algorithmic investment strategies on this index. We used the data collected from Yahoo Finance with daily frequency for the period from 1 January 2000 to 31 December 2019. By using a rolling window approach, we compared ARIMA with the hybrid models to examine whether hybrid ARIMA-SGARCH and ARIMA-EGARCH can really reflect the specific time-series characteristics and have better predictive power than the simple ARIMA model. In order to assess the precision and quality of these models in forecasting, we compared their equity lines, their forecasting error metrics (MAE, MAPE, RMSE, MAPE), and their performance metrics (annualized return compounded, annualized standard deviation, maximum drawdown, information ratio, and adjusted information ratio). The main contribution of this research is to show that the hybrid models outperform ARIMA and the benchmark (Buy&Hold strategy on S&P500 index) over the long term. These results are not sensitive to varying window sizes, the type of distribution, and the type of the GARCH model.     

Stock Index Prediction Based on Time Series Decomposition and Hybrid Model

The stock index is an important indicator to measure stock market fluctuation, with a guiding role for investors’ decision-making, thus being the object of much research. However, the stock market is affected by uncertainty and volatility, making accurate prediction a challenging task. We propose a new stock index forecasting model based on time series decomposition and a hybrid model. Complete Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition with Adaptive Noise (CEEMDAN) decomposes the stock index into a series of Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs) with different feature scales and trend term. The Augmented Dickey Fuller (ADF) method judges the stability of each IMFs and trend term. The Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model is used on stationary time series, and a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model extracts abstract features of unstable time series. The predicted results of each time sequence are reconstructed to obtain the final predicted value. Experiments are conducted on four stock index time series, and the results show that the prediction of the proposed model is closer to the real value than that of seven reference models, and has a good quantitative investment reference value.     

Sequential Discrete p-Facility Models for Competitive Location Planning

Two new models for duopolistic competitive discrete location planning with sequential acting and variable delivered prices are introduced. If locations and prices are assumed to be set once and for all by the players, the resulting bilevel program is nonlinear. Under the assumption that further price adjustments are possible, i.e., that a Nash equilibrium in prices is reached, the model can be simplified to a linear discrete bilevel formulation. It is shown that in either situation players should not share any locations or markets if they strive for profit-maximization.For the situation with price adjustments, a heuristic solution procedure is suggested. In addition, the bilevel models are shown to serve as a basis from which different well-known location models – as, for example, the p-median problem, the preemptive location problem and the maximum covering problem – can be derived as special cases.     

消费者连续统集合下一种投入产出经济的均衡和一般均衡价格

本给出了一个经济模型把跨期间的一般均衡理论和neo-Ricardian的生产价格理论联系起来，并改进了Roce-Anne Oana模型[1][2]。即把消费有限改变消费连续统，并在Rose-Anne Dana模型的基础上，加了条件C.4和C.7，得出了两个重要的结果：（1）在标准条件下，此模型有一均衡使得每一个生产的每期最大利润是相等的；（2）如考虑生产价格是稳定价格；且等于最大利润；则在适当的条件下，这样的价格系统是存在且唯一的，而所定义的均衡的非折扣的价格序列收敛于生产价格。因此均衡价格依赖于技术和消费特征，但在取极限时，有关价格仅依赖于技术。     

Embedding optimisation algorithms with Mosel

Algebraic modelling languages allow models to be implemented in such a way that they can easily be understood and modified. They are therefore a working environment commonly used by practitioners in Operations Research. Having once developed models, they need to be integrated inside the company information system. This step often involves embedding a model into a programming language environment: many existing algebraic modelling languages make possible to run parameterised models and subsequently retrieve their results, but without any facility for interacting with the model during the model generation or solution process.In this paper we show how to use the Mosel environment to implement complex algorithms directly in the modelling language.The Office cleaning problem is solved by a branch-and-cut algorithm, implemented entirely in the modelling language (including the definition of the callback function for the solver). Secondly, a cutting stock problem is solved by column generation, also implemented in the modelling language.AMS classification: 90Cxx, 65K05, 68N15     

A unified framework for pull control mechanisms in multi‐stage manufacturing systems

This paper presents a unified framework for pull production control mechanisms in multistage manufacturing systems. A pull production control mechanism in a multistage manufacturing system is a mechanism that coordinates the release of parts into each stage of the system with the arrival of customer demands for final products. Four basic pull production control mechanisms are presented: Base Stock, Kanban, Generalized Kanban, and Extended Kanban. It is argued that on top of any of these basic coordination mechanisms, a local mechanism to control the workinprocess in each stage may be superimposed. Several cases of basic stage coordination mechanisms with stage workinprocess control are presented, and several production control systems that have appeared in the literature are shown to be equivalent to some of these cases.     

Asymmetric response and interaction of U.S. and local news in financial markets

This paper examines the extent to which financial returns on market indices exhibit mean and volatility asymmetries, as a response to past information from both the U.S. market and the local market itself. In particular, we wish to assess the asymmetric effect of a combination of local and U.S. market news on volatility. To the best of the authors knowledge, this joint effect has not been considered previously. We propose a double threshold non‐linear heteroscedastic model, combined with a GJR‐GARCH effect in the conditional volatility equation, to capture jointly both mean and volatility asymmetric behaviours and the interactive effect of U.S. and local market news. In an application to five major international market indices, clear evidence of threshold non‐linearity is discovered, supporting the hypothesis of an uneven mean‐reverting pattern and volatility asymmetry, both in reaction to U.S. market news and news from the local market itself. Significant, but somewhat different, interactive effects between local and U.S. news are observed in all markets. An asymmetric pattern in the exogenous relationship between the local market and the U.S. market is also found. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.