Scenario optimization

Uncertainty in the parameters of a mathematical program may present a modeller with considerable difficulties. Most approaches in the stochastic programming literature place an apparent heavy data and computational burden on the user and as such are often intractable. Moreover, the models themselves are difficult to understand. This probably explains why one seldom sees a fundamentally stochastic model being solved using stochastic programming techniques. Instead, it is common practice to solve a deterministic model with different assumed scenarios for the random coefficients. In this paper we present a simple approach to solving a stochastic model, based on a particular method for combining such scenario solutions into a single, feasible policy. The approach is computationally simple and easy to understand. Because of its generality, it can handle multiple competing objectives, complex stochastic constraints and may be applied in contexts other than optimization. To illustrate our model, we consider two distinct, important applications: the optimal management of a hydro-thermal generating system and an application taken from portfolio optimization.     

Separating plane algorithms for convex optimization

The equivalent formulation of a convex optimization problem is the computation of a value of a conjugate function at the origin. The latter can be achieved by approximation of the epigraph of the conjugate function around the origin and gradual refinement of the approximation. This yields a generic algorithm of convex optimization which transforms into some well-known techniques when certain strategies of approximation are employed. It also suggests new algorithmic approaches with promising computational experience and provides a uniform treatment of constrained and unconstrained optimization.     

Treasury Management Model with Foreign Exchange Exposure

In this paper we formulate a model for foreign exchange exposure management and (international) cash management taking into consideration random fluctuations of exchange rates. A vector error correction model (VECM) is used to predict the random behaviour of the forward as well as spot rates connecting dollar and sterling. A two-stage stochastic programming (TWOSP) decision model is formulated using these random parameter values. This model computes currency hedging strategies, which provide rolling decisions of how much forward contracts should be bought and how much should be liquidated.The model decisions are investigated through ex post simulation and backtesting in which value at risk (VaR) for alternative decisions are computed. The investigation (a) shows that there is a considerable improvement to “spot only” strategy, (b) provides insight into how these decisions are made and (c) also validates the performance of this model.     

Stock market crashes are outliers

We call attention against what seems to be a widely held misconception according to which large crashes are the largest events of distributions of price variations with fat tails. We demonstrate on the Dow Jones Industrial Average that with high probability the three largest crashes in this century are outliers. This result supports the suggestion that large crashes result from specific amplification processes that might lead to observable pre-cursory signatures. Received and Revised: 30 November 1997 / Accepted: 8 December 1997     

Inexact proximal point method for general variational inequalities

In this paper, we suggest and analyze a new inexact proximal point method for solving general variational inequalities, which can be considered as an implicit predictor-corrector method. An easily measurable error term is proposed with further relaxed error bound and an optimal step length is obtained by maximizing the profit-function and is dependent on the previous points. Our results include several known and new techniques for solving variational inequalities and related optimization problems. Results obtained in this paper can be viewed as an important improvement and refinement of the previously known results. Preliminary numerical experiments are included to illustrate the advantage and efficiency of the proposed method.     

Limit theorem and uniqueness theorem of backward stochastic differential equations

This paper establishes a limit theorem for solutions of backward stochastic differential equations (BSDEs). By this limit theorem, this paper proves that, under the standard assumption g(t,y,0) = 0, the generator g of a BSDE can be uniquely determined by the corresponding g-expectationεg;this paper also proves that if a filtration consistent expectation S can be represented as a g-expectationεg, then the corresponding generator g must be unique.     

Lévy processes in semisimple Lie groups and stability of stochastic flows

We study the asymptotic stability of stochastic flows on compact spaces induced by Levy processes in semisimple Lie groups. It is shown that the Lyapunov exponents can be determined naturally in terms of root structure of the Lie group and there is an open subset whose complement has a positive codimension such that, after a random rotation, each of its connected components is shrunk to a single moving point exponentially under the flow.

     

用实物期权分析方法评价高科技公司

在实物期权分析理论的框架下,开发了更一般的评价高科技公司的模型.利用随机动态规划和实物期权理论,本文得到了高科技公司价值所满足的偏微分方程.在特殊情况下,给出了解析解,并分析参数对高科技价值的影响,最后,给出一个实例来说明本文的结论.