Stochastic modelling of reservoir operations

The nature of hydrologic parameters in reservoir management models is uncertain. In mathematical programming models the uncertainties are dealt with either indirectly (sensitivity analysis of a deterministic model) or directly by applying a chance-constrained type of formulation or some of the stochastic programming techniques (LP and DP based models). Various approaches are reviewed in the paper. Moran's theory of storage is an alternative stochastic modelling approach to mathematical programming techniques. The basis of the approach and its application is presented. Reliability programming is a stochastic technique based on the chance-constrained approach, where the reliabilities of the chance constraints are considered as extra decision variables in the model. The problem of random event treatment in the reservoir management model formulation using reliability programming is addressed in this paper.     

Asymptotic analysis of the effect of arrival model uncertainties in some optimal routing problems

We study the effect of arrival model uncertainties on the optimal routing in a system of parallel queues. For exponential service time distributions and Bernoulli routing, the optimal mean system delay generally depends on the interarrival time distribution. Any error in modeling the arriving process will cause a model-based optimal routing algorithm to produce a mean system delay higher than the true optimum. In this paper, we present an asymptotic analysis of the behavior of this error under heavy traffic conditions for a general renewal arrival process. An asymptotic analysis of the error in optimal mean delay due to uncertainties in the service time distribution for Poisson arrivals was reported in Ref. 6, where it was shown that, when the first moment of the service time distribution is known, this error in performance vanishes asymptotically as the traffic load approaches the system capacity. In contrast, this paper establishes the somewhat surprising result that, when only the first moment of the arrival distribution is known, the error in optimal mean delay due to uncertainties in the arrival model is unbounded as the traffic approaches the system capacity. However, when both first and second moments are known, the error vanishes asymptotically. Numerical examples corroborating the theoretical results are also presented.This work was supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants ECS-88-01912 and EID-92-12122 and by NASA under Contract NAG 2-595.The authors wish to thank an anonymous referee for pointing out Ref. 20, thus avoiding the need for an explicit proof of convexity of the cost function considered in the paper.     

Higher-order implicit strong numerical schemes for stochastic differential equations

Higher-order implicit numerical methods which are suitable for stiff stochastic differential equations are proposed. These are based on a stochastic Taylor expansion and converge strongly to the corresponding solution of the stochastic differential equation as the time step size converges to zero. The regions of absolute stability of these implicit and related explicit methods are also examined.     

Continuous approximation schemes for stochastic programs

One of the main methods for solving stochastic programs is approximation by discretizing the probability distribution. However, discretization may lose differentiability of expectational functionals. The complexity of discrete approximation schemes also increases exponentially as the dimension of the random vector increases. On the other hand, stochastic methods can solve stochastic programs with larger dimensions but their convergence is in the sense of probability one. In this paper, we study the differentiability property of stochastic two-stage programs and discuss continuous approximation methods for stochastic programs. We present several ways to calculate and estimate this derivative. We then design several continuous approximation schemes and study their convergence behavior and implementation. The methods include several types of truncation approximation, lower dimensional approximation and limited basis approximation.His work is supported by Office of Naval Research Grant N0014-86-K-0628 and the National Science Foundation under Grant ECS-8815101 and DDM-9215921.His work is supported by the Australian Research Council.     

随机需求条件下的延迟发运策略模型及性质

本针对随机需求条件下物流配送中心的库存和运输联合决策问题，在基本库存和自身运输能力不足的情况下，提出对剩余客户订货需求采取部分延迟到下一期与部分利用第三方物流立即发运两相结合的策略，并在具有一般惩罚(损失)费延迟发运量限制的条件下，建立运输和库存相关总成本数学期望最小的优化模型，论证了该模型的主要性质，在此基础上很容易构造求解该类问题的优化方法。     

Polynomial-time approximation schemes for packing and piercing fat objects

We consider two problems: given a collection of n fat objects in a fixed dimension, (1) ( packing) find the maximum subcollection of pairwise disjoint objects, and (2) ( piercing) find the minimum point set that intersects every object. Recently, Erlebach, Jansen, and Seidel gave a polynomial-time approximation scheme (PTAS) for the packing problem, based on a shifted hierarchical subdivision method. Using shifted quadtrees, we describe a similar algorithm for packing but with a smaller time bound. Erlebach et al.'s algorithm requires polynomial space. We describe a different algorithm, based on geometric separators, that requires only linear space. This algorithm can also be applied to piercing, yielding the first PTAS for that problem.     

A class of multivariate skew-normal models

The existing model for multivariate skew normal data does not cohere with the joint distribution of a random sample from a univariate skew normal distribution. This incoherence causes awkward interpretation for data analysis in practice, especially in the development of the sampling distribution theory. In this paper, we propose a refined model that is coherent with the joint distribution of the univariate skew normal random sample, for multivariate skew normal data. The proposed model extends and strengthens the multivariate skew model described in Azzalini (1985,Scandinavian Journal of Statistics,12, 171–178). We present a stochastic representation for the newly proposed model, and discuss a bivariate setting, which confirms that the newly proposed model is more plausible than the one given by Azzalini and Dalla Valle (1996,Biometrika,83, 715–726).     

Rate of Convergence of a Stochastic Particle System for the Smoluchowski Coagulation Equation

By continuing the probabilistic approach of Deaconu et al. (2001), we derive a stochastic particle approximation for the Smoluchowski coagulation equations. A convergence result for this model is obtained. Under quite stringent hypothesis we obtain a central limit theorem associated with our convergence. In spite of these restrictive technical assumptions, the rate of convergence result is interesting because it is the first obtained in this direction and seems to hold numerically under weaker hypothesis. This result answers a question closely connected to the Open Problem 16 formulated by Aldous (1999).     

Stationary Distributions of GI/M/c Queue with PH Type Vacations

We study a GI/M/c type queueing system with vacations in which all servers take vacations together when the system becomes empty. These servers keep taking synchronous vacations until they find waiting customers in the system at a vacation completion instant.The vacation time is a phase-type (PH) distributed random variable. Using embedded Markov chain modeling and the matrix geometric solution methods, we obtain explicit expressions for the stationary probability distributions of the queue length at arrivals and the waiting time. To compare the vacation model with the classical GI/M/c queue without vacations, we prove conditional stochastic decomposition properties for the queue length and the waiting time when all servers are busy. Our model is a generalization of several previous studies.