基于打洞函数法的BP神经网络水文预报方法

BP神经网络是目前水文预报中应用较为广泛的方法,但存在收敛速度慢、
易陷入局部最优的缺陷.由此提出了基于全局优化打洞函数法的水文预报方法,把打洞函数法和BP神经网络相结合,
利用打洞函数使BP算法跳出当前局部极小点,得到一个函数值更小的极小点,循环运算直至找到全局极小点.
实验表明该水文预报方法能够提高预报精度,显示了良好的适用性.     

The impact of special days in call arrivals forecasting: A neural network approach to modelling special days

A key challenge for call centres remains the forecasting of high frequency call arrivals collected in hourly or shorter time buckets. In addition to the complex intraday, intraweek and intrayear seasonal cycles, call arrival data typically contain a large number of anomalous days, driven by the occurrence of holidays, special events, promotional activities and system failures. This study evaluates the use of a variety of univariate time series forecasting methods for forecasting intraday call arrivals in the presence of such outliers. Apart from established, statistical methods, we consider artificial neural networks (ANNs). Based on the modelling flexibility of the latter, we introduce and evaluate different methods to encode the outlying periods. Using intraday arrival series from a call centre operated by one of Europe’s leading entertainment companies, we provide new insights on the impact of outliers on the performance of established forecasting methods. Results show that ANNs forecast call centre data accurately, and are capable of modelling complex outliers using relatively simple outlier modelling approaches. We argue that the relative complexity of ANNs over standard statistical models is offset by the simplicity of coding multiple and unknown effects during outlying periods.     

三峡工程对下游及河口环境的影响分析

本文概括了三峡建库后引起下游水沙动力因子的基本变化,论述了三峡水库对下游及河口生态和环境的主要影响,并通过对目前仍难以确定的一些问题的仔细分析,为长江中下游及河口地区的综合开发和环境保护提供准确的科学依据     

关于三峡永久船闸高边坡快速施工地质超前预报的几个问题

文中就三峡永久船闸高边坡快速施工地质超前预报的几个问题进行了讨论。分别研究了三峡永久船闸高边坡施工地质超前预报的必要性，提出了超前预报技术思路，最后就高边坡岩体反分析及反馈设计问题、施工地质超前预报问题以及与监测相适应的超前处理及防护进行了分析。     

带常数项的最优加权组合预测

We propose a model based on the optimal weighted combinational forecasting with constant terms,give formulae of the weights and the average errors as well as a rela- tion of the model and the corresponding model without constant terms,and compare these models.Finally an example was given,which showed that the fitting precision has been enhanced.     

Forecasting daily supermarket sales using exponentially weighted quantile regression

Inventory control systems typically require the frequent updating of forecasts for many different products. In addition to point predictions, interval forecasts are needed to set appropriate levels of safety stock. The series considered in this paper are characterised by high volatility and skewness, which are both time-varying. These features motivate the consideration of forecasting methods that are robust with regard to distributional assumptions. The widespread use of exponential smoothing for point forecasting in inventory control motivates the development of the approach for interval forecasting. In this paper, we construct interval forecasts from quantile predictions generated using exponentially weighted quantile regression. The approach amounts to exponential smoothing of the cumulative distribution function, and can be viewed as an extension of generalised exponential smoothing to quantile forecasting. Empirical results are encouraging, with improvements over traditional methods being particularly apparent when the approach is used as the basis for robust point forecasting.     

A RAPID APPROXIMATION FOR PREDICTING THE HYDROCARBON DISCOVERY RATE: PART 2. IMPROVING THE ACCURACY

In Part 1 of this paper, we noted the systematic errors in the estimates of means and standard deviations produced by a rapid approximation applied to a model of hydrocarbon discovery. In Part 2, we apply regression to predict the approximation errors, as functions of model parameters and approximation output. With the regression model, we can correct much of the error in the approximation, as we illustrate with data from the Nisku-Shelf play of western Canada.     

用MAPKOB链模拟月径流系列的尝试

水文统计中的月径流资料是非常重要的。月径流系列是一随机过程，由于水文现象的复杂性，难以用准确的分布函数来描述。但作出某些合理手假设后，可将其变为符合各态历经定理的平稳随机过程。用Ｍａｐｋｏｂ自回归模型可以生成人工月径流系列，以满足规划、设计等方面的要求。本文以三屯河为例，用Ｍａｐｋｏｂ模型模拟了该河的月径流系列。     

基于预测有效度的组合预测方法冗余信息的判定

基于预测方法有效度的概念 ,建立了考虑预测精度标准差的预测有效度的组合模型 ,提出了几个新的概念 ,给出冗余信息出现的两个判定定理 .并用实例说明判定定理的有效性 .     

基于集对论的居民消费研究

基于集对分析方法和近20年来的居民消费数据,建立了我国城镇居民的消费增量预测模型、进而研究了居民的消费水平。通过和常规的回归方法相比,阐明了集对分析方法在研究居民消费增量的等级变化问题方面的优点。研究结果也表明了集对分析方法在等级分类和趋势预测这一类似确定又不确定的问题上有良好的应用效果。