Optimal production run time for a deteriorating production system under an extended inspection policy

A deteriorating production system is subjected to random deterioration from an in-control state to an out-of-control state with a general shift distribution. In order to reduce the defective items, part inspection policy, under which production inspections are performed only at the end of the production run, and full inspection policy are both considered in the literature. Moreover, the former dominates the latter. Since the product produced towards the end of a production cycle are more likely to be defective, it can further economize the inspection costs that they are directly reworked without inspection. In this paper, we propose an extended product inspection policy for a deteriorating production system. Product inspections are performed in the middle of a production cycle, and after the inspection, all products produced until the end of the production run are fully reworked. Based on the model, we show that there exists a production run time and a corresponding unique inspection policy such that the expected total cost per item per cycle is minimized. Finally, numerical examples are provided to illustrate our extended inspection policy, and indicate that such product inspection model will reduce the quality-related cost than part inspection does.     

相依二值随机变量序列游程的一类强极限定理

本文利用文献[1]与[2]中提出的方法和思想,研究相依二值随机变量序列游程的极限性质,得到游程平均数的一类强极限定理.     

CUSUM，GLR，GEWMA以及RFCuscore控制图监测稳定过程均值漂移的效果比较

本文给出了累积和控制图(CUSUM)监测稳定过程均值漂移的平均运行长度(ARL)的区间估计,并采用数字模拟的方法对CUSUM,GLR,GEWMA以及RFCuscore四种控制图监测稳定过程均值漂移的效果进行比较,结果显示CUSUM效果最好.     

A state space model for rub‐off triangles

In this paper we suggest a distribution‐free state space model to be used with the Kalman filter in run‐off triangles. It works with original incremental amounts and relates the triangle with a column of observed values, which can be chosen in order to describe better the risk volume in each year. On the traditional application of run‐off triangles (the paid claims run‐off), this model relates the amount paid j years after the accident year with a column of observed values, that can be the claims paid on the first year, the number of claims, premiums, number of risks, etc. Two advantages of this model are the perfect split between observed values and random variables and the capacity to incorporate the changes in the speed of the company's reality into the model and in its projections. Particular care is taken on the evaluation of the final forecast mean square error as well as on the estimation of the model parameters, specially the error variances. Also, two sets of claims data are analysed. In comparison with other methods, namely, the chain ladder, the analysis of variance, the Hoerl curves and the state space modelling with the chain ladder linear model, the proposed model gave a final reserve with a mean square error within the smallest. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

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??A single distribution-free (nonparametric) Phase II exponentially weighted moving average (EWMA) chart based on the Cucconi statistic, referred to as the EWMA-Cucconi (EC) chart, is considered here for simultaneously monitoring shifts in the unknown location and scale parameters of a univariate continuous process. A comparison with some other existing nonparametric EWMA charts is presented in terms of the average, the standard deviation and some percentiles of the run length distribution. Numerical results based on Monte Carlo analysis show that the EC chart provides quite a satisfactory performance. The effect of the Phase I (reference) sample size on the IC performance of the EC chart is studied in detail. The application of the EC chart is illustrated by two real data examples.     

齐次生产函数条件下长期成本函数的确定方法

文章研究一般性齐次生产函数条件下长期成本函数的确定方法，证明了长期成本函数是关于产量的幂函数，并指出了长期边际成本函数和长期平均成本函数之间的特殊关系。     

A new multivariate variability control chart based on a covariance matrix combination

In the field of multivariate quality control, there are many control charts related to the process mean but few options addressing process variability. Variability control charts have two main drawbacks: the first relates to the number of parameters to tune and the second relates to how changes in the mean affect the performance of these charts. Thus, in this paper, we propose a new multivariate variability control chart, called the multivariate exponentially weighted covariance matrix combination, which solves these two problems. The results show that this new chart performs well in the detection of changes in variance when the mean does not change and outperforms other charts when the mean does change.     

Distributions of Runs and Consecutive Systems on Directed Trees

In this paper we study exact distributions of runs on directed trees. On the assumption that the collection of random variables indexed by the vertices of a directed tree has a directed Markov distribution, the exact distribution theory of runs is extended from based on random sequences to based on directed trees. The distribution of the number of success runs of a specified length on a directed tree along the direction is derived. A consecutive-k-out-of-n:F system on a directed tree is introduced and investigated. By assuming that the lifetimes of the components are independent and identically distributed, we give the exact distribution of the lifetime of the consecutive system. The results are not only theoretical but also suitable for computation.     

Sooner and Later Waiting Time Problems for Runs in Markov Dependent Bivariate Trials

In this paper we study exact distributions of sooner and later waiting times for runs in Markov dependent bivariate trials. We give systems of linear equations with respect to conditional probability generating functions of the waiting times. By considering bivariate trials, we can treat very general and practical waiting time problems for runs of two events which are not necessarily mutually exclusive. Numerical examples are also given in order to illustrate the feasibility of our results.     

一种以TATB/HMX为基的高聚物粘结炸药的短脉冲冲击起爆特性

利用金属箔电爆炸驱动聚酯薄膜飞片产生短脉冲冲击波的加载技术（电炮），依据DRM（Delayed Robbins-Monro）试验程序，研究了以TATB/HMX为基的高聚物粘结炸药的短脉冲冲击起爆特性，获得了其50%起爆概率条件下的冲击起爆阈值和100%起爆的最小起爆阈值。利用光纤探针/光电转换器/示波器接收技术，研究了冲击起爆压力幅值和脉宽对该炸药到爆轰距离的影响，得到了相应的Pop关系。