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本文考虑离散时间风险模型$U_n=(U_{n-1}+Y_n)(1+r_n)-X_n$,$n=1,2,\cdots$, 其中$U_0=x>0$为保险公司的初始准备金,$r_n$为在第$n$个时刻的利率, $Y_n$为到时刻$n$为止的总保费收入,$X_n$为到时刻$n$为止的所支付的全部索赔,$U_n$表示保险公司在时刻$n$的盈余. 当$Y_n$和$r_n$满足某些温和条件时,我们得到了在\, $x\to\infty$时,有限时间破产概率$\psi(x,N)=\pr\big(\min\limits_{0\leq n\leqN}U_n<0|U_0=x\big)$关于$N\geq1$的一致渐近的关系式\,$\psi(x,N)\sim\tsm_{k=1}^{N}\ol{F}_X((1+r_1)\cdots(1+r_n)x)$,其中$\ol{F}_X(x)$是$X_1$的尾分布.     

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This paper considers the asymptotics of randomly weighted sums and their maxima, where the increments {X_i,i\geq1\} is a sequence of independent, identically distributed and real-valued random variables and the weights {\theta_i,i\geq1\} form another sequence of non-negative and independent random variables, and the two sequences of random variables follow some dependence structures. When the common distribution F of the increments belongs to dominant variation class, we obtain some weakly asymptotic estimations for the tail probability of randomly weighted sums and their maxima. In particular, when the F belongs to consistent variation class, some asymptotic formulas is presented. Finally, these results are applied to the asymptotic estimation for the ruin probability.     

一种求解物流设施二次分配问题的混合分布估计算法

为了求解物流设施二次分配问题,提出了一种混合分布估计算法(HEDA)。首先,根据QAP的距离和物流量矩阵信息,提出了一种基于假设物流中心启发式规则的种群初始化方法,用于提高初始种群的质量和算法的搜索效率;其次,针对HEDA的概率模型,提出了一种概率矩阵初始构型生成机制和扰动操作,用于提高算法的全局探索能力;最后,在分析QAP的结构性质的基础上,设计了一种基于快速评价的局部搜索策略,用于提高算法的局部开发能力。仿真计算实验和算法比较验证了HEDA的优化性能。     

一种使用在线评论信息的商品购买决策分析方法

在线评论信息对消费者的商品购买决策影响非常显著,如何使用数据体量较大的在线评论信息来进行有针对性的商品购买决策分析是近年来尤为需要关注的一个新研究内容。本文提出一种使用在线评论信息的商品购买决策分析方法。首先,通过在线评论信息的挖掘来确定了消费者所重点关注的关于候选商品的商品特征及其权重;然后,通过消费者情感的分析来构建了关于各候选商品的商品购买决策矩阵;在此基础上,通过给出的一种基于随机TOPSIS的方案排序方法来进行了各候选商品的排序。最后,依据携程网提供的关于三家客栈的在线评论信息进行了数据实验,从而说明了本文提出方法的实用性与可行性。     

Line percolation

We study a new geometric bootstrap percolation model, line percolation, on the d‐dimensional integer grid . In line percolation with infection parameter r, infection spreads from a subset of initially infected lattice points as follows: if there exists an axis‐parallel line L with r or more infected lattice points on it, then every lattice point of on L gets infected, and we repeat this until the infection can no longer spread. The elements of the set A are usually chosen independently, with some density p, and the main question is to determine , the density at which percolation (infection of the entire grid) becomes likely. In this paper, we determine up to a multiplicative factor of and up to a multiplicative constant as for every fixed . We also determine the size of the minimal percolating sets in all dimensions and for all values of the infection parameter.     

基于信用额度和外生违约概率的出口海陆仓融资质押率优化

质押率优化是出口海陆仓融资决策的核心内容。针对出口商信用、出口商与进口商外生违约以及质押物价值波动三重叠加风险下的出口海陆仓融资决策问题,在设定出口商信用额度,且给定出口商和进口商外生违约概率的前提下,依据双重Stackelberg博弈原理,以供应链协同均衡下的出口商、进口商和船公司的期望利润最大化为目标,建立了质押率与订货量及货物价格联动优化模型,设计了微分法和逆向归纳法求解模型。算例验证了模型和方法的适用性和有效性。敏感性分析结果表明质押率与出口商信用额度呈负相关关系,对出口商和进口商外生违约概率不敏感。研究结论可为出口海陆仓融资优化决策提供科学参考。     

基于粗糙集的应急案例中概率规则挖掘方法

应急案例作为描述突发事件发生、发展及应对过程的文本,蕴含了潜在的规律与宝贵的经验。为了挖掘应急案例中各要素间潜在的关联关系,构建出基于粗糙集的应急案例中概率规则挖掘方法。首先,构建出应急案例知识五元组,描述应急案例共性特征,并将诸多应急案例信息组织成一张应急案例决策表;然后,应用遗传算法对应急案例决策表进行属性约简,进而获取概率规则;最后,以大兴安岭林区50起重特大火灾案例为例,阐述方法的具体执行过程,并通过两组测试实验证明了方法的可行性和有效性。该方法描述了应急案例的共性本体特征,具有较高的可重用性,有利于为决策者采取应急管理措施提供决策支持。     

Ergodicity and First Passage Probability of Regime-Switching Geometric Brownian Motions

A regime-switching geometric Brownian motion is used to model a geometric Brownian motion with its coefficients changing randomly according to a Markov chain. In this work, the author gives a complete characterization of the recurrent property of this process. The long time behavior of this process such as its p-th moment is also studied. Moreover, the quantitative properties of the regime-switching geometric Brownian motion with two-state switching are investigated to show the difference between geometric Brownian motion with switching and without switching. At last, some estimates of its first passage probability are established.     

逻辑系统G3在非均匀概率空间下命题的真度理论

在离散概率测度空间下定义了三值逻辑（p,q,r）测度，并相应地定义了命题逻辑系统中公式的真度概念；在三值逻辑（1/6．1/3．1/2）测度和（1/7．2/7.4/7）测度下证明了命题逻辑系统G3中全体公式的真度值之集在[0．1]上是稠密的，并给出真度的表达式；利用真度定义公式的相似度和一种伪距离，为—般离散概率空间下三值命题的近似推理理论提供一种可能的框架．     

Gradient Profile Estimation Using Exponential Cubic Spline Smoothing in a Bayesian Framework

Attaining reliable gradient profiles is of utmost relevance for many physical systems. In many situations, the estimation of the gradient is inaccurate due to noise. It is common practice to first estimate the underlying system and then compute the gradient profile by taking the subsequent analytic derivative of the estimated system. The underlying system is often estimated by fitting or smoothing the data using other techniques. Taking the subsequent analytic derivative of an estimated function can be ill-posed. This becomes worse as the noise in the system increases. As a result, the uncertainty generated in the gradient estimate increases. In this paper, a theoretical framework for a method to estimate the gradient profile of discrete noisy data is presented. The method was developed within a Bayesian framework. Comprehensive numerical experiments were conducted on synthetic data at different levels of noise. The accuracy of the proposed method was quantified. Our findings suggest that the proposed gradient profile estimation method outperforms the state-of-the-art methods.