核对称轴不同相对取向对熔合动力学的影响

计算了核对称轴不同相对取向时的熔合位垒.基于双核模型观念，考虑了熔合与准裂变的竞争，通过数值法求解主方程，计算了⁷⁶Ge+²⁰⁸Pb，⁴⁸Ca+²⁴⁴Pu核对称轴不同相对取向对熔合概率的影响，探索了最有利于超重元素合成的弹靶相对取向.取向不同时，对熔合反应的影响较大，计算结果表明弹靶碰撞为腰对腰时，更有利于发生熔合反应. 关键词： 超重元素 熔合概率 变形核 方向角度     

基于后验概率度量的粒子滤波跟踪算法研究

 针对遮挡、光照变化、尺度变化等复杂环境中的视觉跟踪问题,提出一种基于后验概率度量的粒子滤波跟踪算法。由于后验概率指标与Bhattacharyya系数指标相比具有更强的峰值特性,采用后验概率指标作为相似性度量函数,通过粒子的更新、推广、观测、估计等步骤实现跟踪算法。通过对实际视频图像序列进行目标跟踪实验,实验结果表明:传统算法只有约50%的图像能够实现尺度自适应,而本文算法采用传统算法25%的粒子就能够收敛逼近目标的真实轨迹,达到更强的抗遮挡能力,90%以上的图像序列都能够实现良好的尺度自适应效果。     

响应面方法计算HTR-10余热排出系统物理过程的失效概率

在核电站安全研究中，概率安全评价方法已经得到了广泛的应用.但是对于采用非能动设计的核电站系统，其可靠性分析的研究还处于初级阶段.非能动系统的失效不但要考虑常规可靠性分析中考虑的设备失效，还要考虑物理过程的失效.物理过程失效概率的计算方法和能动系统可靠性分析方法完全不同.本文给出物理过程失效的数学描述，介绍了一次二阶矩法、响应面方法，并且应用响应面方法计算了清华大学核能技术设计研究院10MW高温气冷实验堆(HTR-10)余热排出系统失效概率的近似值. 关键词： 概率安全评价 非能动系统 可靠性 响应面     

考虑蠕虫传播风险的信任度更新模型

基于网络节点信任度的评估机制是一种有效防御蠕虫传播的方法。针对现有节点信任度计算模型对蠕虫攻击行为不敏感,对恶意节点识别不全面的问题,本文提出了一种考虑蠕虫传播风险的信任度更新模型。通过蠕虫传播模型中STIDR状态定义,对节点信任度和传播概率的关系进行了定量刻画;建立了直接风险、间接风险和传播性风险三种条件下的信任度更新模型。仿真结果表明,与基本信任模型相比,本文考虑蠕虫传播风险的信任度更新模型使网络中感染状态节点的信任度更低,感染状态节点数目更少,隔离状态节点数目更多,表明信任度的更新使节点对感染状态节点的识别更加有效,在一定程度上达到了抵御蠕虫攻击,抑制蠕虫在网络中传播的目的。     

溴到铷的类钠离子能级辐射跃迂几率和能级寿命

本文在多组态Dirac-Fock(MCDF)理论框架下计算了水窗波段(λ:23.3～43.8A,相当于Z:34～46)的溴到铷的类钠离子1s~22s~22p~6nlj(n=3～15,l=0～6)各能级能量及各能级n_il_ij_i—n_kl_kj_k(n_i≤6,n_h≤15)间的电偶极辐射跃迁几率,并由此得出可能产生软X射线激光跃迁(4f-5g,4d-5f,4f-6g,4d-6f)的激光上能级的寿命,把计算得到的跃迁波长与实验测量值进行比较,其相对误差小于0.35％。     

On a relationship between Uspensky's theorem and poisson approximations

In this paper we show that Uspensky's expansion theorem for the Poisson approximation of the distribution of sums of independent Bernoulli random variables can be rewritten in terms of the Poisson convolution semigroup. This gives rise to exact evaluations and simple remainder term estimations for the deviations of the distributions in study with respect to various probability metrics, generalizing results of Shorgin (1977, Theory Probab. Appl., 22, 846–850). Finally, we compare the sharpness of Poisson versus normal approximations.     

BaFClxBr1－x:Sm2+中5D2→7F0跃迁几率及其对烧孔效率的影响

本文以BaFClxBr1－x:Sm2+中5D2→7F0的跃迁几率随x变化为中心对BaFClxBr1－x:Sm2+体系4f5d带的激发光谱、5D2→7F0跃迁的荧光衰减随温度的变化特性、5D2→7F0的跃迁几率等进行了研究。从而得出结论:在BaFClxBr1－x:Sm2+中,随Br含量的增大,4f5d带与5D2能级更加接近,使7F0→5D2的吸收截面增大,从而可能提高在5D2:能级烧孔的效率。     

Inference in quantum physics

In quantum physics all experimental information is discrete and stochastic. But the values of physical quantities are considered to depict definite properties of the physical world. Thus physical quantities should be identified with mathematical variables which are derived from the experimental data, but which exhibit as little randomness as possible. We look for such variables in two examples by investigating how it is possible to arrive at a value of a physical quantity from intrinsically stochastic data. With the aid of standard probability calculus and elementary information theory, we are necessarily led to the quantum theoretical phases and state vectors as the first candidates for physical quantities.     

A minimum distance estimator in an imprecise probability model - Computational aspects and applications

The article considers estimating a parameter θ in an imprecise probability model which consists of coherent upper previsions . After the definition of a minimum distance estimator in this setup and a summarization of its main properties, the focus lies on applications. It is shown that approximate minimum distances on the discretized sample space can be calculated by linear programming. After a discussion of some computational aspects, the estimator is applied in a simulation study consisting of two different models. Finally, the estimator is applied on a real data set in a linear regression model.     

不同类型随机变量和差积商的分布

研究两种不同类型的随机变量,即离散型随机变量ζ与连续型随机变量η的和（ζ＋η）、差（ζ-η）、积（ζη）、商（ζ/η）的分布,给出这些分布的密度函数．